Updates
Later, 9:55 p.m. Central Time: see comments. I'm being told that I'm misreading the graphs.
Original Post
The EIA says that US LNG exports to Europe increase amid declining demand and spot LNG prices in Asia.
The headline, at least to me, suggested a "wash" -- with the decrease in Asia made up by a similar increase going to Europe.
But this statement: "US LNG exports to Europe increase aid declining demand and spot LNG prices in Asia."
Wow, what an incredible understatement.
Link here.
1. Unless I'm misreading the graph, the exports to Asia show bar graphs for the entire years for 2017 and 2018, but the data for LNG exports is only for the first five months of this year. It that's an accurate reading, exports to Asia in 2019 will exceed those of 2018, which almost doubled exports reported in 2017.
2. To the far right, look at the huge increase in US LNG exports to Childe. I wonder why? Somehting to check on.
3. But, now for the wow! Look at the graphics for US LNG exports to Europe. Again, the graph suggests full year data for years 2017 and 2018, but only "YTD" (first five months of the year) for 2019. Extrapolating for the full year, the x axis will have to greatly increased for the full year 019. Right now, 1.6 bcfpd over five months translates to [1.6/5 = x 12 = 3.84 bcfpd. Disclaimer: I may be mis-reading the graph.]
4. Now look at the individual countries, comparing 2019 (YTD) with 2018:
- France: wow; from almost nothing in 2018 to 0.3 bcfpd; and the French hate us;
- Spain: I can't even make out the dark blue-grey Spanish bar in 2018; in 2019 (YTD), 0.3 bcfpd, equal to that of France
- Netherlands: ditto
- Italy: ditto
- Turkey: a small increase
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What's With Chile And US LNG Exports?
It looks like it might all have to do with Cheniere. Absolutely fascinating.
From oilprice two years ago (again, this is two years ago):
At the moment, the market offering the best returns on a netback basis is South America. ICIS published a great article about this last week and I encourage you to check out the interactive graph they posted with the article. According to ICIS data, 26 cargoes (as of Sept. 6) have been delivered from Cheniere’s Sabine Pass with more than 57 percent of total exports going to South America. Chile is the single biggest recipient and absorbed 28 percent of the total volume.The oilprice contributor links to this interactive graph at ICIS. Amazingly, the article is still there.
Later: here's another interesting dot connecting Cheniere and the global import/export story.
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Best T-Shirt Line This Week
Remain calm. You are on the happy side of the Trump wall.
Seen on a t-shirt worn by a Hispanic man with his extended family outside a Korean restaurant. In Texas.
What a great country.
"Unless I'm misreading the graph, the exports to Asia show bar graphs for the entire years for 2017 and 2018, but the data for LNG exports is only for the first five months of this year."
ReplyDeleteYou are misreading the graph. The units are "per day", not totals. So it's irrelevant that you look at 2019 partial year.
Thank you.
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