Equity Markets Surge On News Of June's Retail Sales -- Tell Me Again The Economy Is In Trouble, That The American Consumer Is Hurting -- Breaking -- IN PROGRESS -- July 16, 2024

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Opening

• major indices
• Dow: up 200 points -- trading at record high.
  
• S&P 500: up 16 points
• NASDAQ: up 55 points
• most surprising
• AAPL surging again -- up another $1.60 
• BRK-B: up another $2.53
  
• no surprising
• GM down
• Starbucks down
  

What's the only news story overnight? Trump names a first-rate 39-year-old for his VP. 

• political experience? two years in the US Senate.
• fresh face. How fresh: first millennial ever to be nominated for VP
  
• state: Ohio
• one word: populist
• coming of age experience: US Marine
• wife: Indian; also a Yale graduate; three children
• bottom line: Trump's first major decision in his candidacy, possibly his presidency -- he hit it out of the ballpark by naming JD Vance as he VP
  

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Economy

"Everyone" says the consumer is stretched. "That low growth story" is not borne out by the data. Holy mackerel. Even CNBC reader/analyst seems surprised.

• the retail numbers for June come in better than expected; and,
• one can't say it's all inflation -- inflation has been dropping like a rock
• implied Dow open on the news: up 121 points; later, pre-market just before the open, implied open --> up 200 points.
  

Economic numbers today: June retail sales: 

• better than expected.
• strip out autos and number improves significantly
• strip out autos and gasoline and number improves even more

Analyst comments:

• "solid report"
• the consumer: bedrock of economy -- still doing well, much better than expected
• beneficiaries, two sectors: restaurant sector (that's a surprise) and e-commerce (no surprise)
• e-commerce doing better than any other retail sector
• department stores suffering
• smaller retailers in malls are actually doing better despite anchor stores being a drag on sales
• most interesting observation: what's all this talk about "tight Fed" hurting US consumers
• Stifel analyst: doesn't see a Fed cut this year (CY2024)
  

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Cramer: First Hour

Banks earnings:

• earnings: 2Q24 beats -- Morgan Stanley, BofA
• will be beneficiaries of any rate cut; and, less regulation (expected in Trump administration)
• Charles Schwab: down $5.67 in pre-market but Schwab is growing by leaps and bounds
• banking sector earnings pretty much complete for this cycle
  

Amazon Prime Day -- apparently there's a delay in getting checked out -- that's how much activity Amazon is experiencing -- but the system has not crashed

Pre-market:

• AAPL: up 37 cents
• TSM: up $2.53
• AMZN: up $2.16
• BRK-B: up another $2.36 after an incredibly huge day yesterday

Retail sales:

• HP OmniBook Ultra rolled out yesterday -- link here. No one even noticed.
• at the link look at the new focus: TOPS and NPUs 
• without the blog I never would have understood what's going on here
• first subscription-free, ad-free, Bakken-focused blog to notice that Apple was ahead of the game in this area
  
• no longer does transister count matter; it's not just about CPUs or GPUs any more
• this is a huge, huge deal -- the article at the link
  
• Cramer says the HP OmniBook is a huge, huge deal
  

Cramer: both F and GM are losing huge on EVs, but F has it right.

For bragging rights, time-date first: 

• Hulu is optimized for Apple iPad; not desktop computers

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Top Stories Today

Top stories today?

Usually I post only one top story per day if I can even find one top story worth posting.

Today there are at least three top stories. It is absolutely amazing.

And the top three don't even include what the US equity markets did yesterday. And futures, right now, look like more of the same.

But, I'm rambling. The top three stories:

• The EV narrative continues: less buyers than expected. I'm shocked. Shocked. Biggest EV story of the day and GM's CEO Mary Barra barely mentions it. Link here. The big question: is Mary Barra transformational -- something expected of a CEO or simply a saleswoman? Link here. 
• AAPL: 2-nm (2 nm, 2nm) -- so much in the story at the link and the "Fast Money" folks seem to be missing that story. Link here.
• BNY Mellon stock is up 16%. Say what. A ho-hum bank. 

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Autos

P/Es:

• F: 15
• GM: 6

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Tech

From "Evan,"ten largest semiconductor stocks."

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Politics

The first night -- RNC convention - I think independents are fascinated by what they are seeing. A lot of fresh faces and a lot of diversity and lots of populism. Independents cannot possibly be anything but fascinated, excited, energized. And just think, in a few weeks, they get to see Joe Biden make a rousing, electrifying speech at his own convention. 

Trump shows up: when was the last time the party's likely presidential nominee shows up the first night? And NYT didn't even mention it. Of course, did anyone really think Trump wouldn't show up.

JD Vance has added energy that cannot be quantified. 

"Not your father's Republican Party." No, it isn't. It's your grandfather's Republican Party -- all the way back to Ronald Reagan.

Can't wait to see the VP debate. 

Hunch: JD Vance is going to overshadow Trump ... in a good way.

Can't say the same for Biden's VP.  

Quick: if you are an independent who are you most interested in this morning -- Biden? Trump? Kamala? JD? That's a no-brained. And if you're an independent -- daresay, a populist -- who's going to stand out? 

Deep pockets: billionaires Bill Ackman and Elon Musk.

My hunch: a lot of folks in the Biden administration are updating their resumes. 

Most visible right now: the head of the Secret Service. Completely missed a 20-year-old who climbed on top of a building with AR-15 -- and any number of folks in the crowd spotted the shooter before the authorities seemed to take notice and/or action. The shooter couldn't even meet rudimentary skills in high school shooting club. Most interesting observation: shots rang out and there was no panic in the crowd. Folks stayed "put" and maintained composure -- making things so much easier for authorities once shooting began. I've only seen one reporter comment on that fact -- that the crowd did not panic when shots rang out and apparently there were several shots including those by the sniper. But it does appear, the current MO for the Secret Service is to let the assailant take the first shot.  If I'm wrong, the sniped hesitated at the wrong moment.

One person who does not need to update his resume: JPow.