Predictions For 2023 -- IN PROGRESS

Others: link here.

Mine, in progress, not ranked in any particular order:

• Energy remains the top global news story; coal talk overwhelms "global warming" talk 
• New England needs to re-think their energy policy; they won't
  
• EV manufacturers will experience a "come-to-Jesus" moment; challenges for Tesla may be insurmountable;
• there will be a relative glut of new cars by mid-summer as supply chain obstacles are resolved, and floodgate of 2023 cars released as well as beginning surge of EV
• EVs will disappoint; consumers can't afford; recession-like economy for 1H23
  
• WTI trends toward $90, but won't go over $100;
  
• no major military action in the Pacific; in eastern Europe; in the Mideast; or on the Korean peninsula; another year of peace; Ukraine war will end in unstable truce
  
• Covid-19 fades away; except in China
  
• the Bakken "maintains"; 
• active rigs trend toward 50; production returns to 1.2 million bopd;
• Fed will remain hawkish
• NFL has best year in history; NBA not so much
• Dallas Cowboys will past first round but won't make it to the Super Bowl
  
• the milliondollarway blog will be better than ever

The one "issue" that completely confounds me: how much crude oil the US will have in storage measured in "number of days" through 2023.

• if week-after-week, number of days of crude oil supply stays above 30 days, the "availability of oil" is a non-issue.;
• if "we" stay between 22 days and 28 days, moving around an average of 26 days, plus or minus a couple of days, it's pretty much the same thing -- a yawner;
• but if we get to 24 days and the trend is definitely downward, one would expect crude oil prices (and gasoline prices) to start going higher; 
• for me the "breaking point" is 20 days AND a consistent downward trend, week-after-week; 
• a second aspect of all this correlates with this maxim: the price of oil is not determined by the average price of all oil available, but the price of the last bbl being sold, if that makes sense -- the corollary? Once we hit go below a certain number of days of crude oil in storage, the price of oil won't move linearly with the drop in the number of days of oil storage. The price of oil will surge, not week/week, but day/day. Imagine walking toward the edge of a cliff .... that last step is not like the penultimate step before going over the edge ...  
• days of supply is incredibly complicated:
• first of all, it's a prediction
• second, large number of variables, each of which by itself, can be incredibly difficult to predict
• completely unpredictable geopolitical events can have huge effects
• policy decisions by oil-producing countries can have huge effects, and some policy decisions can result in unintended consequences (e.g., Biden's decision to release oil from the SPR)
• all one can do is pull out a yellow legal-size piece of paper, draw a line down the middle and put supply issues on one side and demand issues on the other other side (the most recent, perhaps best example -- the announcement by Mexico that as of 2023, that country will no longer export any of its oil