I don't recall when I first started following ISO NE but it was when all the stories were coming out of New England that folks there refused to put in natural gas pipelines from Pennsylvania. I was curious how this would play out.
It took about two years, but finally it's being noted on my twitter feed.
Very rarely does electricity in New England reflect low prices (1st - 3rd decile) once associated with coal and natural gas. Invariably never lower than 4th decile and generally much higher.
I'm sure it happens often but I just don't catch it but when the marginal fuel is hydro, electricity gets very expensive very fast. This morning at 4:00 a.m. ET:
- demand: low to moderate at 10,366 MW
- price: $140 / MWh
- marginal fuel: hydro
- hydro: 16% (I don't recall hydro ever going above 16%, but I could be wrong)
- renewables: 10%
- wind: 30% of that 10% of renewable
Links:
- electricity bills next winter (2022 - 2023)
- electricity shortage warnings grow across US, WSJ.
- all-renewable moment in California is a glimpse into the futuree, Bloomberg via Rigzone, May 8, 2022; note: this article seemed so "out of character" for Rigzone, but now I note that it's a Bloomberg article; other sources suggest the fallacy of Bloomberg's reporting; did Rigzone get snookered?
- this is the real story, from Reuters: California says it needs more power to keep the lights on; Governor Newsom says their will be brownouts / blackouts over the next two years. From the linked article:
California energy officials on Friday issued a sober forecast for the state's electrical grid, saying it lacks sufficient capacity to keep the lights on this summer and beyond if heatwaves, wildfires or other extreme events take their toll.
The update from leaders from three state agencies and the office of Governor Gavin Newsom comes in response to a string of challenges with the ambitious transition away from fossil fuels, including rolling blackouts during a summer heat wave in 2020.
This is the "real" story regarding that Bloomberg / Rigzone article linked above:
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