Clearing Out The In-Box -- Nothing About The Bakken -- April 20, 2022

More global warming: April snowstorm knocks out power across northeast.

ISO NE: link here. Note: New York is not part of ISO NE. New York City: NYISO.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Housing Starts: March, 2022 -- Surprise

An unexpected increase in March, 2022. Link here.

• building permits increased but starts for single-family housing tumbled amid risigin mortgage rates
• housing starts:
• adjusted annual rate: 1.793 million increase vs a forecast of a decrease to 1.745 million units
• and, then look at this: permits for future home building increased at a rate of 1.873 million units
• was this the real reason why the market surged yesterday, after these numbers were reported?

Twitter 

Elon Musk story not yet over.

Covid-19 Vaccine

See below:

• there is now a global supply surplus
• JNJ does not earn a profit from these vaccine sales
• other Big Pharma said to be making huge profits on vaccine sales; links everywhere, here's one;
  

Mask

On-again, off-again:

• Biden says decision to wear mask is now individual choice; not a mandate
• within hours, Biden's DOJ says, "hold on, not so fast" -- there are bigger issues of control here:
• sounds like DOJ will confer with CDC on whether to appeal judge's decision that mask mandate exceeded CDC's authority
• recent rulings suggest the judge is on firm ground; could be risky for DOJ to appeal
• in addition, if mandate "naturally" expires as scheduled, it becomes a "moot" case, doesn't it?
• US Supreme Court steps in at some point; SCOTUS doesn't take "moot" cases.
• first take; much to play out;

The Apple Page

News:

• iPhone production "proceeding well" in Chinese city of Zhengzhou despite new lock downs and restrictions; MacRumors;
• Apple may have inked NFL Sunday ticket deal; very, very sketchy; but we should know soon who won: Apple or Amazon?

Sunday Ticket airs on DirecTV, but rights are up for auction as the NFL's DirecTV deal is expiring after the 2022 season. DirecTV paid around $1.5 billion for the games, but whoever wins the rights for the 2023 season will likely pay around $2.5 billion.

Should Apple win the bid for Sunday Ticket, out-of-market fans will be able to watch non-prime time games from all 32 NFL teams on Apple TV+. Sunday Ticket would join Friday Night Baseball, which Apple airs each Friday as part of a deal with Major League Baseball.

Netflix

Much more needs to be sorted out:

• big story; one report here; this was first time in ten years that Netflix lost subscribers.
• shares plunged after hours after report released 
• chart looks similar to Sam Adams (BEER) chart; BEER has never recovered;
  
• for investors, first question: where did those subscribers go?
• some suggest this is result of Covid lock downs coming to an end
• I never thought of that; tend to disagree
• there are better options out there; competition is severe 
• either way, doesn't seem to be good news for Netflix
• already looking for additional revenue streams, such as ad-supported options.
  

JNJ

Has huge day: shares rallied 3% following release of its 1Q22 results.

• EPS: $2.67 vs $2.58 expected;
• Whisper earnings: n/a.

Notably, J&J said it would suspend its guidance for COVID-19 vaccine sales due to a global supply surplus. 

But the company said that it does not earn a profit from these vaccine sales, so the change would not impact its adjusted earnings figures. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Schwab Funds

SCHX or SCHG: Michael Fitzsimmons weighs in over at SeekingAlpha.

• edge to SCHG
• options:
• SCHX: 760 large-cap stocks, and tech particularly
• SCHG: broader portfolio; more than just large-cap stocks
• Fitzsimmons prefers "cobbling together a personal portfolio with the best-of-the-best"
• his own such portfolio is a four-stock "A-List Technology Portfolio" (sounds simiilar to Jim Cramer's "FANG" or "FAANG" or whatever it is now.
• of course, now, perhaps "N" for Netflix needs to be removed, giving us "FAG" or replacing Nvidia for Netflix
• Fitzsimmon's A-List Technology Portfolio: AAAB
• Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Broadcom
• compare Broadcom (AVGO) with Qualcomm (QCOM) here;
  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Russia Joins An Elite Group

Russian stocks: Putin signs decree (I guess his version of an "executive order") to remove Russian stocks from overseas exchanges.

• more and more, Russia moves into elite foursome: Cuba, North Korea, Russia, Iran
• financial nuclear war: Russia leapfrogs Iran and North Koree to become the world's most sanctioned country; link to Fortune, March 8, 2022.
• it doesn't matter how much oil Russia "sneaks" to China, India, bottom line is this: without western technology, Russia's energy sector will eventually implode, along with Russia's financial system
• still waiting to see if Russia fails to meet bond obligation due April 4 (with 30-day grace period); tea leaves suggest that Russia won't pay; will be in default.
  
• folks are focused on the war; it's obvious this has become much, much bigger than a shooting war;
• Putin has set his country back fifty years
• China vis-a-vis Taiwan is watching closely

Amazon

And finally "news" that isn't news: USPS to slow down nearly a third of its first-class package deliveries (https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/us-postal-service-first-class-package-deliveries)

• Amazon, FedEx, USPS must have loved this "news."
• random thought: might Amazon ever go into direct competition with FedEx, USPS? Why not? I can already imagine the business model; it's not difficult. 
• maybe more on this later, but think about it this way
• when an 18-wheeler takes a cargo-load cross country, the driver wants to return home with another paying cargo; crazy to drive back home empty
• now think of the Amazon delivery; the driver brings the package to the door but then leaves empty; why now carry a package to be mailed with him/her
• at fulfillment center package would be shipped, and consumer would receive electronic statement / bill