Only His Barber Knows For Sure -- Connecting The Dots -- December 14, 2021

Updates

Later, 10:06 p.m. CT: this is simply a coincidence. I posted the note below, then going through my twitter feed one last time for the day, I came across this:

Original Post

In the big scheme of things, I don't know how much electricity, in a relative sense, that a "giga-battery-factory" requires, or how much electricity an auto manufacturer needs, but I assume it's not trivial. 

Hold that thought.

It seems the "big" reason that Elon Musk / Tesla left California had to do with taxes and "politics." 

But one wonders to what extent accessible, dependable, inexpensive, dispatchable electricity played a role. 

I was reminded of that today when a reader mentioned in passing that PG&E's plans to shut down Diablo Canyon nuclear plant beginning in 2024 are still on track. 

• Wiki entry.
• Is California prepared, May 18, 2021?

This nuclear plant is the largest single power station in the state.

It went into operation in 1985 /1986 -- almost forty years ago and had at least another forty years of "life."

The plant produces electricity for about 6 cents per kWh, less than the average cost of 10.1 cents per kWh that PG&E paid for electricity from other suppliers in 2014.

A 2021 report from researchers at MIT and Stanford states that keeping Diablo Canyon running until 2035 would reduce the state's carbon emissions from electricity generation by 11% every year, save the state a cumulative $2.6 billion, and improve the reliability of the grid. 

They state that three factors have changed since the 2018 decision to close the plant: the state passed a new law (sb100) which requires 100% emissions-free electricity generation by 2045, the whole western US region is in a continuing mega-drought (limiting hydroelectric generation), and demand for electricity has outpaced supply, especially during heatwaves. 

They also stated that keeping Diablo operating until 2045 would save the state a cumulative $21 billion.

For more:

• See this post from October 17, 2021.   
• Perhaps the first blog post on this issue, June 21, 2016.

The best comparison I have is ISO New England where nuclear energy still plays a significant role, providing about 25% of electricity demand.