Afternoon Note -- October 23, 2018

WCS: how much is Alberta "losing" because the TransMountain Pipeline expansion was killed? $100 million / day. Per day. Around $60 million / month goes into the North Dakota Legacy Fund. Divided by 30 days that works out to $2 million / day. Compare that to $100 million / day in Alberta. British Columbia's First Nation is costing Alberta $100 million / day.

Colorado: the top 2018 energy story in Colorado will be Proposition 112, if voters vote to "pass" it. Opponents argue that it will "remove" 58% of future minerals (including oil) from Colorado.

Tesla: great optics. Could surprise. From CNBC:

Shares of Tesla were up more than 12 percent Tuesday afternoon after a noted short seller, Andrew Left of Citron Research, said he's changed his mind and is investing in the company's stock. "Tesla is destroying the competition," Left said in a research note.

Khashoggi: bad optics for MbS. His image is forever tarnished. It's going to be really, really hard (impossible?) for any westerner to have a photo op with MbS. If no westerner is willing to have a photo with MbS does that mean the end of MbS? Very possibly. He's not the only prince in the palace. Being seen with others / saving face is huge in the Mideast. Not sure how MbS can survive.

The Red Queen: Netflix. Link here. Netflix's new $2 billion in borrowing raises Wall Street eyebrows.The streamer's long-term debt has soared north of $10 billion, though Moody's says ratings and outlook remain stable. From the linked article:

Longtime skeptic Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities says the additional debt did not come as a surprise, considering Netflix's penchant for reporting negative cash flow. "It is precisely what we modeled," says Pachter. "So long as they burn cash, they will have to raise capital to fund their content spending."

Netflix is a victim of its own success. Its original content streamed on demand has proved so popular it has attracted many copycats, so Netflix must spend wildly to keep up with relative upstarts like Amazon, CBS All Access, HBO Now and Hulu.

It also must replenish what it is gradually losing from Warner Bros. and Disney, as each of them prepare to launch their own services next year that will directly compete with Netflix.

This means that if Netflix users want to stream episodes of Friends or the movie Coco, for example, they eventually won't have the option without signing up for yet-to-be named services from Warners and Disney, respectively.

Wow, if this doesn't sound like the Red Queen on her treadmill.

And I would argue that "video content" is entirely different than oil. "Video content" grows stale; loses value over time. Oil tends to never go out of favor; does not grow stale; and tends not to love value over time. So, we'll see. But Netflix? Certainly sounds like the Red Queen on her treadmill.

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Medicare For All

I would consider myself a fiscal conservative. I would like to see the "big numbers." I'm not convinced that the US can't afford "Medicare for all." There would have to be some tweaking but my hunch is that if Trump had time -- he doesn't -- he could get it done.

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ISO New England

Watch in real-time. Look at three things, in this order:

• the five-minute real-time LMP graph and five-minute real-time LMP list
• the $250/MWH spike during the middle of the night
• staying at $50/MWH much of the entire day (as of 1500
• the system load: forecast vs actual
• middle of the night
• 1500 - 2100 (current)
• fuel mix
• renewables at 1900

Later, 1800: yup, here it comes. Spot is now slightly over $81 / MWH. Peaked at $110/MWH in the evening hours.

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What Goes Around, Comes Around

From The Williston Herald:

Northwest District Judge Benjamen Johnson refused to close the courtroom during the testimony of a teenager and his mother in the upcoming trial of Bryton Dahl.

The judge ruled that a victim's concern about "embarrassment" doesn't preclude a defendant's right to a speedy, public, trial, as guaranteed in the Sixth Amendment, US Constitution.

Wow.