Saturday, August 25, 2018

For Newbies: The Recently Fracked Burr Federal Wells Have Been Updated -- August 25, 2018

Much to learn from these recently fracked Burr Federal wells.

This is the production profile of an older Burr Federal well in the area that has just come back on line. According to FracFocus this well was not re-fracked:
  • 30503, 759, CLR, Burr Federal 14-26H, Sanish, API - 33-061-03522, t12/15; cum 249K 6/18;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20183018590186652338720371137996159
BAKKEN5-20183126794268883116226753226293869
BAKKEN4-20182523386231842058823079138528970
BAKKEN3-20185117010451113253714091037
BAKKEN2-20180000000
BAKKEN1-20180000000
BAKKEN12-20170000000
BAKKEN11-20170000000
BAKKEN10-201700630000
BAKKEN9-20171874106779230
BAKKEN8-20172133633491260458224772719
BAKKEN7-201731618962064290878459602502
BAKKEN6-20173061325987282371716443417
BAKKEN5-2017316370617727265471519583
BAKKEN4-2017162725268317332729261036

I track these kinds of wells over at "wells of interest" but there are now so many of them, I will add to the list simply by exception.

This is a phenomenon that is not being reported by "anyone else."

From what I can tell, analysts consider this phenomenon uninteresting to follow. Likewise, it appears that analysts don't think DUCs are worth tracking.

It should be noted that Lynn Helms predicts a huge production surge in North Dakota "this fall." The official numbers lag data from the field by two months, so if the surge occurs in October/November, we won't see the official numbers until December/January, and those numbers won't be reflected in earnings statements until after the 4Q18 has closed out. Generally speaking, companies like Whiting and Continental Resources will give us an indication of how things are going in their monthly corporate presentations prior to conference calls.

By the way, the well above was originally fracked in mid-to-late 2015. What was the original production like after the first frack?

BAKKEN7-201631122381202970431195511729226
BAKKEN6-20162467876798459279357531404
BAKKEN5-201631805180814826995072282722
BAKKEN4-2016301261612754720113045104522593
BAKKEN3-20163116348165101050515553126892864
BAKKEN2-2016291487614803122551257596422933
BAKKEN1-2016311650316910130121394044259515
BAKKEN12-20152212864119749483201094020069
BAKKEN11-20150000000
BAKKEN10-20150000000
BAKKEN9-201516576570148001480

By the way, not being talked about is the near-100% success rate of fracks. This is not trivial. New operators had a devil of a time in the early days -- they put in a nice well, drilling to depth, and then the frack went back. Even on simple vertical wells, novice operators can "screw" up a stimulation.

The fact that Bakken operators are literally scoring almost a 100% success rate of stimulation / fracking is incredible in and of itself. Staggering. The Bakken operators have set the bar so high analysts have now accepted that as the "norm." To say the least, this is neither trivial nor should it be taken for granted.

There must be a 100 folks involved in the successful fracking of a well, and if any one of them screws up, it can literally mean a failed frack. The 100 folks: all the way back to the geologist to the trucker delivering the sand.

By the way, open book test: how many more years of drilling is there in the Bakken if the price of oil supports "full" development of the Bakken?

The answer is in one of studies linked this past week.

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