US Won't Hit 10-Million Bbls / Day Gasoline Threshold This Year -- July 21, 2016

Updates

Later, 11:47 a.m. Central Time: note first comment in which a reader notes:

Production has topped 10 million several times already, including each of the last three weeks: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFRPUS2&f=W.

That's what's left the big glut in PADD 1; other regions aren't so bad, & supplies in PADD 5 are almost below normal.

Note: the breakdown of product inventories by PADD can be found in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report: http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/wpsrall.pdf.

Gasoline is table 5 on page 11, followed by graphs on Figure 2

As a reminder, assuming this image is still current:

Original Post

 

Link here for "weekly US product supplied of finished motor gasoline."

It does not appear we will hit 10 million bbls / day of finished motor gasoline this summer, which I predicted, though we will come close.

I've always said that if I had only one metric to choose to follow the economic health of the US (or the global economy for that matter) it would be the amount of gasoline produced. After setting new records for most of 2016, it is somewhat concerning, that in the past two weeks the average amount of gasoline produced has dropped from the same period one month (June) earlier. With gasoline prices continuing to fall, one would expect gasoline production to increase.

However, it appears, according to John Kemp graphics, the refiners got ahead of themselves these last few months, producing way more gasoline than needed and now supplies are at a 10-year high. The refiners are now cutting back on production. So, we won't hit the 10 million bopd threshold this summer.

Having said that, it appears next January 31, 2017, we will set another record: the first 12-month stretch in which the average amount of gasoline produced supplied in the US stayed above 9 million bbls/day for an entire 12-month stretch. Except for the first two weeks in January, 2016, the country has surpassed the 9-million threshold every week so far this year, something that has never been seen in the past.

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American Housewife

A few weeks ago while visiting the Dallas Museum of Art, I bought several books at the bookstore, including American Housewife by Helen Ellis.

It's one of those books one can read in about 45 minutes but I've restrained myself and have permitted myself to read only one "story" per week. I don't want to finish it.

I bought it on a lark, as they say, and didn't think much about it until the other day when I saw that our local community library featured it as one of their new selections. The community library is a small one, but one of the better small libraries I've visited. I assume they have a small budget but they consistently surprise me with their great selections.

To say the least, I was pleasantly surprised to see American Housewife as one of their new purchases.

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Sophia

Unfortunately I don't have a photo of Sophia reading her books yet. I hope to do that this weekend. She is a real character.

Generally, she swims about one hour every afternoon, and then retires to her reading room where she gets down her books for the day. Currently her favorite is a set of ten slim books, the 40th anniversary collection of My Happy books (as she calls them) by Roger Hargreaves. She dumps them all out, all over the floor and then goes through each one before putting them back into the box. Her mom says she does have several favorites. I assume "Mr Happy" is her favorite of the set.