Monday, June 23, 2014

RBN Energy: Western Canadian CBR

I generally don't do this, a stand-alone post on RBN Energy, but this is a nice update on Canadian CBR from RBN.

Some data points:

CBR from Canada has increased ten-fold in two years
  • 2012: 16,000 bopd (CBR)
  • 2014: 160,000 bopd (CBR)
CBR driven primarily by pipeline capacity constraints
Canadian crude production has expanded steadily over the past few years
  • 2003: 2.5 million bopd 
  • 2013: 3.4 million bopd
  • 2014: 3.6 million bopd
  • 2019e: 5 million bopd
most from Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB)
  • 2012: 1.8 million bopd
  • 2020e: 3.6 million bopd
bitumen is very viscous: Canadians using steam to get it out of the ground
  • pipelines transport dibit: diluent - bitumen mixture (30% diluent)
  • CBR transports purebit (raw) or railbit (20% diluent)
Pipeline onstraints make it unlikely to see significant new pipeline before 2017; the following approved, but many, many hurdles; progress will be slowed significantly
  • Kinder Morgan TransMountain Express
  • Enbridge Northern Gateway
    TransCanada Energy East
CBR premium: $15/bbl -- cost of diluent PLUS transportation
Two drivers for CBR: small producers and larger producers
  • future looks gloomy for small producers
  • larger producers looking to put in five new or expanded CBR terminals
  • steam facilities required to unload railbit or purebit
  • only one US facility can download railbit/purebit: Genesis Energy at Natchez, Mississippi
CBR regulations will likely slow CBR expansion
future of CBR depends on delays in pipeline expansion

No comments:

Post a Comment