Some data points:
CBR from Canada has increased ten-fold in two years
- 2012: 16,000 bopd (CBR)
- 2014: 160,000 bopd (CBR)
Canadian crude production has expanded steadily over the past few years
- 2003: 2.5 million bopd
- 2013: 3.4 million bopd
- 2014: 3.6 million bopd
- 2019e: 5 million bopd
- 2012: 1.8 million bopd
- 2020e: 3.6 million bopd
- pipelines transport dibit: diluent - bitumen mixture (30% diluent)
- CBR transports purebit (raw) or railbit (20% diluent)
- Kinder Morgan TransMountain Express
- Enbridge Northern Gateway
TransCanada Energy East
Two drivers for CBR: small producers and larger producers
- future looks gloomy for small producers
- larger producers looking to put in five new or expanded CBR terminals
- steam facilities required to unload railbit or purebit
- only one US facility can download railbit/purebit: Genesis Energy at Natchez, Mississippi
future of CBR depends on delays in pipeline expansion
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