2/9/2014 | 02/09/2013 | 02/09/2012 | 02/09/2011 | 02/09/2010 | |
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Active Rigs | 192 | 185 | 203 | 163 | 90 |
Idle Musings On The Price Of Oil
The major factors affecting the price of oil:
- Mideast politics and hostilities (Syria, Iran, Israel); sabre-rattling
- strength of the dollar
- US economy six months out
- Chinese manufacturing index
- global economy six months out
If the huge GM and Ford truck inventory is due to the weather, that's one thing; but if the huge truck inventory is due to prospects about the US economy going forward, the huge inventory is very concerning.
Most recent data available, the week ending January 31, 2014, the EIA summary:
- U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.9 million barrels per day last week, down by 1.2 million barrels per day from the previous week
- over the last four weeks, crude oil imports averaged over 7.3 million barrels per day, 6.5% below the same four-week period last year
- U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 0.4 million barrels from the previous week
- U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year
- gasoline inventories increased by 0.5 million barrels last week
- gasoline inventories are well above the upper limit of the average range
- distillate fuel inventories decreased significantly last week
- distillate fuel inventories are well below the lower limit of the average range for this time of year
- propane/propylene inventories fell 0.8 million barrels last week
- propane/propylene inventories are below the lower limit of the average range
- total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 5.3 million barrels last week
- US oil imports are falling significantly
- crude oil inventories increased despite significantly decreased imports
- crude oil inventories remain in the upper half of the average range for this time of year
- gasoline inventories increased last week
Remember all that hand-wringing that US refineries were not able to process light, sweet oil coming out of the Bakken? The fact that imports of crude are decreasing significantly and gasoline inventories are increasing suggest to me that US refineries are doing just fine. It should be noted that the US does continue to import gasoline.
If crude oil inventories continue to remain in the upper half of the average range, I assume we will see a continued fall in imports. I assume some imports are contractually required, and as those contracts are filled/expire, imports will continue to fall.
Weekly Supply Estimates: days of gasoline inventory, US, source:
- 1/31/14: 23.3 days of inventory
- 1/24/14: 22.9 days
- 1/17/14: 22.2 days
- 1/10/14: 21.8 days
- 1/03/14: 22.2 days
- 12/27/13: 22.3 days
Media
Ford produced the 2013 F-150 models later this production cycle then normal. Ford felt the increased production would sell, as a alternative to the higher priced 2014 unit.. this may have not been correct..
ReplyDeleteThis fact I know as a Ford shareholder cause I was surprised that Ford did this. don
I vaguely remember that story about the production cycle. Maybe you alerted me to it some time ago; I forget. My hunch is that weather had a lot to do with it, and the uncertainty of ObamaCare moving into 2014 had a lot to do with it. This is only one data point. I certainly don't have a feel for the 2014 economy yet.
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