Monday, November 22, 2021

Overnight -- November 22, 2021

My prediction was wrong. I wrote earlier this morning. I was correct that the decision would be announced today. The progressives in the House "lost."

Prediction, Fed chief: Lael Brainard.

  • presidents are change agents
    • Jay Powell: old school; nothing new; same mandates: jobs, inflation
    • Lael Brainard: new school; will add a third mandate: green energy
  • will change story for at least one day
    • take people's minds off high gasoline prices, other failed policies
    • if doesn't appoint Brainard, Brandon will be torn apart by the "woke"
    • speaking of which, I wonder how Alec Baldwin's Rust is coming along?
  • announcement: today (on new Fed chief, not Rust update)

Death: Peter Aykroyd, age 69; no cause disclosed

Best story overnight and, yes, it comes out of Canada 

Thanksgiving tips: how to save money this week, NBC, I can't make this up;

  • NBC's suggestion: don't serve turkey
  • recommendation has nothing to do with cost, but rather, if "you don't serve turkey, fewer people might cover over and  that would you money, also"
  • it's not called the peacock network for nothing

On tap: Legacy Fund deposit for November, 2021. 

Dashboards: can't recall if I've posted the November dashboards.

Global energy crisis:

  • EU, UK getting all the attention
  • in fact, Japan is probably at the top of the list among G20, for energy crisis
  • Japan's wholesale spot power price surged to highest level ever for this time of year;
    • rainy weather reducing solar output
    • utilities curbing output to save LNG supply for winter
    • oil needs to be released to back up natural gas shortages for electricity, heating
    • Japan's wholesale power price for next-day delivery surged; highest level in ten months; a 60% jump in one week; link here;

Blogging work today:

  • EVs: tracked here.
    • Tesla: sedans, pickups, crossovers
    • Rivian: pickups
    • Lucid: high end luxury sedans
    • AAPL: unknown, but tea leaves suggest sedans, maybe crossovers, minivans; perhaps something completely novel
      • at some point, and very soon now, Apple must announce manufacturing site / partner
  • ludicrous: ignoring what GM, Ford, VW, Toyota, Honda are doing in EVs
    • unlikely that the Big Five will roll over to Tesla and Rivian
  • 600,000: that's the "30-second elevator speech" --
  • union vs non-union favoritism
    • may end up in court
    • may end up in Mexico 
  • links to close out

Most interesting factoid this week: Norwegian oil consumption

  • goes full Monty on EVs
  • oil consumption pretty much unchanged over ten years, link here;

Most interesting energy story not being reported:

  • Daimler Benz -- biggest truck company in the world
    • huge early mover into EVs
    • yes, but ---- it turns out DB says hydrogen will be just as important
  • looking for 50/50 split on EVs/HVs
  • story is being completely missed; link here;
  • apparently this is a big, big deal in UK

Most laughable story all week:

  • now that oil companies have cut back on production per COP26, politicos now can't seem to get enough oil
  • Morton's Fork;

Thinking Out Loud

Investing: not ready for prime time.

This is what happens when you watch CNBC all day long:

  • old investment rule no longer applies: 60/40 -- 60% stocks / 40% bonds
  • new investment rule: 80/20 -- 80% "traditional" stocks / 20% meme stocks

The mix: traditional non-tech blue chip / blue chip tech / meme stocks

  • short horizon/conservative/risk averse: 40 / 40 / 20
  • longer horizon/more speculative/need for adrenaline rush: 10 / 40 / 50
  • the Reddit / Robinhood crowd: 0 / 20 / 80

The speculative mix:

  • 10%: in one index fund or BRK-B (buy and hold forever)
  • 40%: FAANG-M (buy, hold long term, adjust holdings per momentum swings)
  • 50%: Tesla, Rivian, Lucid, Bitcoin (tickers will change as often as monthly; churn to newest meme stock on weekly basis or even daily basis)

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

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