My prediction was wrong. I wrote earlier this morning. I was correct that the decision would be announced today. The progressives in the House "lost."
Prediction, Fed chief: Lael Brainard.
- presidents are change agents
- Jay Powell: old school; nothing new; same mandates: jobs, inflation
- Lael Brainard: new school; will add a third mandate: green energy
- will change story for at least one day
- take people's minds off high gasoline prices, other failed policies
- if doesn't appoint Brainard, Brandon will be torn apart by the "woke"
- speaking of which, I wonder how Alec Baldwin's Rust is coming along?
- announcement: today (on new Fed chief, not Rust update)
Death: Peter Aykroyd, age 69; no cause disclosed
Best story overnight and, yes, it comes out of Canada.
Thanksgiving tips: how to save money this week, NBC, I can't make this up;
- NBC's suggestion: don't serve turkey
- recommendation has nothing to do with cost, but rather, if "you don't serve turkey, fewer people might cover over and that would you money, also"
- it's not called the peacock network for nothing
On tap: Legacy Fund deposit for November, 2021.
Dashboards: can't recall if I've posted the November dashboards.
- EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
- EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
- EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf
Global energy crisis:
- EU, UK getting all the attention
- in fact, Japan is probably at the top of the list among G20, for energy crisis
- Japan's wholesale spot power price surged to highest level ever for this time of year;
- rainy weather reducing solar output
- utilities curbing output to save LNG supply for winter
- oil needs to be released to back up natural gas shortages for electricity, heating
- Japan's wholesale power price for next-day delivery surged; highest level in ten months; a 60% jump in one week; link here;
Blogging work today:
- EVs: tracked here.
- Tesla: sedans, pickups, crossovers
- Rivian: pickups
- Lucid: high end luxury sedans
- AAPL: unknown, but tea leaves suggest sedans, maybe crossovers, minivans; perhaps something completely novel
- at some point, and very soon now, Apple must announce manufacturing site / partner
- ludicrous: ignoring what GM, Ford, VW, Toyota, Honda are doing in EVs
- unlikely that the Big Five will roll over to Tesla and Rivian
- 600,000: that's the "30-second elevator speech" --
- to be in the EV game, one must deliver at least 600,000 vehicles annually by 2025; otherwise just a niche player
- Apple may be the exception
- union vs non-union favoritism
- may end up in court
- may end up in Mexico
- links to close out
- CBNC on Lucid, September 28, 2021;
- Motley Fool on Lucid, March 2, 2021: is this a joke?
- Reuters on Lucid, September 29, 2021; are you kidding me?
- this year's (2021) goal: 577. Yes, no typo. Fivehundredseventyseven.
- did I read somewhere Lucid now has a market cap greater than GM?
- Lucid search: ludicrous link.
- one-year, XL Fleet Corp; link here. Can we say ludicrous again?
- and not atypical for all the EV SPACs announced in the past year
- these look like shale companies
- Apple Car could double company's revenue and market value -- Morgan Stanley, November 19, 2021;
- talk about malarkey; no one has any idea how to "value" AAPL any more
- copper: China's copper premium spiked to highest in years, link here;
Most interesting factoid this week: Norwegian oil consumption
- goes full Monty on EVs
- oil consumption pretty much unchanged over ten years, link here;
Most interesting energy story not being reported:
- Daimler Benz -- biggest truck company in the world
- huge early mover into EVs
- yes, but ---- it turns out DB says hydrogen will be just as important
- looking for 50/50 split on EVs/HVs
- story is being completely missed; link here;
- apparently this is a big, big deal in UK
Most laughable story all week:
- now that oil companies have cut back on production per COP26, politicos now can't seem to get enough oil
- Morton's Fork;
Thinking Out Loud
Investing: not ready for prime time.
This is what happens when you watch CNBC all day long:
- old investment rule no longer applies: 60/40 -- 60% stocks / 40% bonds
- new investment rule: 80/20 -- 80% "traditional" stocks / 20% meme stocks
The mix: traditional non-tech blue chip / blue chip tech / meme stocks
- short horizon/conservative/risk averse: 40 / 40 / 20
- longer horizon/more speculative/need for adrenaline rush: 10 / 40 / 50
- the Reddit / Robinhood crowd: 0 / 20 / 80
The speculative mix:
- 10%: in one index fund or BRK-B (buy and hold forever)
- 40%: FAANG-M (buy, hold long term, adjust holdings per momentum swings)
- 50%: Tesla, Rivian, Lucid, Bitcoin (tickers will change as often as monthly; churn to newest meme stock on weekly basis or even daily basis)
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