Saturday, November 2, 2019

Peak Oil? What Peak Oil? -- Bloomberg -- November 2, 2019

Link here. Data points:
  • the majors have increased commercial reserves by 62 billion boe, proven and probable through the downturn
    • equivalent to another BP and Chevron combined
  • forecast: 
    • 2030 production to be 6 million boepd
    • 2030 production: 40% higher than it was in 2014
  • majors are chasing value
    • have driven breakevens from $63/bbl in 2015 to an average of just $40/bbl today (2019)
  • and then, look at this:
    • “The U.S. majors, for example, have significantly strengthened tight oil exposure. European Majors have used DROs, M&A and exploration to beef up advantaged positions in conventional plays,” Ellacott stated.
  • The seven majors: Equinor, Chevron, XOM, Eni, Shell BP, and Total.
"Advantaged oil":  short cycle time. Going back into "old" fields, using new technology, to bring back production from declining pools; "dead" basins.  Currently refers mostly to older "conventional" plays, but suitable for older unconventional fields.

BP defines "advantaged oil" as: “From an investment perspective, an advantaged oil project means a short cycle time for development (from finding the resource to producing first oil) and a low development cost,” Dupree said in a recent interview published in BP’s in-house magazine.

"Advantaged oil": term used as early as 2012 by the Chinese.

Previously linked:
“This latest expansion at Thunder Horse is another example of how the Gulf of Mexico is leading the way in advantaged oil growth for BP, unlocking significant value and safely growing a high-margin business,” said Starlee Sykes, BP’s regional president for the Gulf of Mexico and Canada.
Consider "brownfield" vs "greenfield."

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