Note 1: this is crude and products, NOT crude and condensate. People confuse this a lot in the news. We are still a net importer of crude and condensate (and will be unless we add another ~4 MM bpd of national oil production). See below for crude and condensate net imports, history:
You can see that we're still net importing more C&C than we were in late 80s or early 70s.
The reason for becoming a net exporter of "crude and products" are twofold: refinery exports of finished products, and exports of NGLs.
First, our refineries make more products than the nation consumes, so we sell excess to export. See, e.g., gasoline "net imports", now almost a negative (i.e. export) million bopd.
You can see we've gone from being a net importer prior to 2010 to exports of ~1 MM bpd nowadays. Not shown is the comparison to other countries. But we are now the clear leader in global exports of propane and bigger than the next couple suppliers (Qatar, Saudi Arabia) combined. The joke they tell over there is that we are the real suicide bombers (of the markets). Just dump our products on the export market and crash the prices. ;-)
Note 2: This is an EIA prediction (Short Term Energy OUTLOOK) of the monthly number (like how they predict the oil monthly numbers). We won't know the actual EIA monthly numbers for OCT until end of DEC (two months lag, sorta like NDIC).
Here is the history to JUL19. You can see the clear trend in crude and products:
You can see we almost went to net exports in FEB of 2019. (There is some seasonality because of less driving in winter.)
Note 3: Finally, the above is all based on MONTHLY numbers. There are also weekly numbers (like there are for oil production). The weekly net import numbers are more erratic than monthly, because an individual oil tanker has enough volume to swing the numbers, 2 MM bo for a VLCC.
Also, the data quality for weekly stuff is worse than for monthly. (Not as bad as production disparity of weekly/monthly, but still some similar issues.)
Here are the weekly numbers for total imports crude and products:
You can see that we already had a week of net exports in OCT already. And had some sporadic weeks of net exports previously (one each, in NOV18, FEB19, and JUN19).
However, unlike the sporadic weekly numbers to data, EIA STEO is predicting consistent monthly net exports from OCT19 on. (To achieve this will be price dependent. EIA are anticipating prices of WTI in the mid 50s. If we do much worse in price, I expect US production to contract, which will hurt exports.)
P.s. For a little more detail on how the net import numbers compile, this page is good:
US predicted to shift to net exports of total liquids (crude and products) in OCT (this month!):
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/T_Mason_H/status/1181616132815503360
Note 1: this is crude and products, NOT crude and condensate. People confuse this a lot in the news. We are still a net importer of crude and condensate (and will be unless we add another ~4 MM bpd of national oil production). See below for crude and condensate net imports, history:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRNTUS2&f=M
You can see that we're still net importing more C&C than we were in late 80s or early 70s.
The reason for becoming a net exporter of "crude and products" are twofold: refinery exports of finished products, and exports of NGLs.
First, our refineries make more products than the nation consumes, so we sell excess to export. See, e.g., gasoline "net imports", now almost a negative (i.e. export) million bopd.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MGFNTUS2&f=A
Secondly, we have massive exports of NGLs (which are considered like a product, since they come from a gas plant). See below:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPL2_IMN_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=M
The NGL exports are mostly a result of the shale gas explosion, but includes NGLs from rich associated gas from oil plays like the Bakken and Permian.
Particularly dramatic is the situation in propane (an NGL):
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MPANT_NUS-Z00_2&f=M
You can see we've gone from being a net importer prior to 2010 to exports of ~1 MM bpd nowadays. Not shown is the comparison to other countries. But we are now the clear leader in global exports of propane and bigger than the next couple suppliers (Qatar, Saudi Arabia) combined. The joke they tell over there is that we are the real suicide bombers (of the markets). Just dump our products on the export market and crash the prices. ;-)
Note 2: This is an EIA prediction (Short Term Energy OUTLOOK) of the monthly number (like how they predict the oil monthly numbers). We won't know the actual EIA monthly numbers for OCT until end of DEC (two months lag, sorta like NDIC).
Here is the history to JUL19. You can see the clear trend in crude and products:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTNTUS2&f=M
You can see we almost went to net exports in FEB of 2019. (There is some seasonality because of less driving in winter.)
Note 3: Finally, the above is all based on MONTHLY numbers. There are also weekly numbers (like there are for oil production). The weekly net import numbers are more erratic than monthly, because an individual oil tanker has enough volume to swing the numbers, 2 MM bo for a VLCC.
Also, the data quality for weekly stuff is worse than for monthly. (Not as bad as production disparity of weekly/monthly, but still some similar issues.)
Here are the weekly numbers for total imports crude and products:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=wttntus2&f=w
You can see that we already had a week of net exports in OCT already. And had some sporadic weeks of net exports previously (one each, in NOV18, FEB19, and JUN19).
However, unlike the sporadic weekly numbers to data, EIA STEO is predicting consistent monthly net exports from OCT19 on. (To achieve this will be price dependent. EIA are anticipating prices of WTI in the mid 50s. If we do much worse in price, I expect US production to contract, which will hurt exports.)
P.s. For a little more detail on how the net import numbers compile, this page is good:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_MOVE_NETI_DC_NUS-Z00_MBBLPD_M.htm
You can click on the blue links at the end of each row to look at individual product net imports.
Thank you. Much appreciated. It will take a bit of time to go through this. I
DeleteIt's cool, man. I think I tire you out. Go regenerate by playing dominos with whatsername. ;-)
ReplyDeleteI'm fine just getting the thoughts down, in writing. Of course, I enjoy a reaction. But don't feel some duty.
My OCD does not allow me to not comment on something. LOL. And the notes are very, very good. Great for the archives. Thank you.
Delete