Jobs, Jobs, Jobs ... and, then, No Jobs -- December 16, 2022

This is most peculiar. Or as Alice might say, "... curiouser and curiouser." 

The official statement at this link.

I'll have to wait to see what non-government analysts have to say.

Apples and oranges.

The original numbers were estimates much earlier in the year.

Now, we're getting current estimates based on actual numbers. At least that's how I'm reading it. I might be wrong.

Two excerpts:

Comments:

• the first estimate -- the wildly breathless estimate of one million new jobs added was based on the sum of the data presented by a number of states; it was not the "Feds" trying to deceive us -- the Feds simply took the data they were sent; summed it up as they usually do and published it;
• the numbers now suggest only 10,000 new jobs were added: the numbers are so wildly disparate, one wonders where the journalists, analysts, fact-checkers, auditors were for the past several months -- are folks simply taking the states' numbers / the Fed numbers at face value and not checking them?
• was there any analysis by the Philadelphia Fed to explain how the states' estimates could be so wildly different that what actually occurred? If so, I missed it.
• it was during this period that the EIA had really, really incorrect information -- or at least questionable data -- about gasoline demand -- suggesting demand was much greater than it really turned out to be; that still remains perplexing, but I see no conspiracy;
  
• one wonders about two things:
• were the "states" too exuberant in forecasting how fast "we" would come out of the pandemic lock downs?
• did "work-at-home" data affect the numbers; it the "work-at-home" data still affecting the numbers
• correlating the current very, very low unemployment rate with these new numbers is very, very difficult; if only 10,000 jobs were added -- instead of one million -- how is that unemployment remains so low? Had one million jobs been added, wouldn't the unemployment rate be even lower?
• ZeroHedge asks the question if these new numbers might affect JPow's "Fed" statement for December, 2022. I don't know what ZeroHedge was implying (I did not closely read that article; I generally avoid ZeroHedge except as a "pointer").
• but if the unemployment rate is this low despite "no" (only 10,000) jobs being added, JPow has a much more formidable problem than we are being led to believe.
• oh, I almost forgot: a pundit -- maybe it was the ZeroHedge contributor who suggested that now that the mid-term elections are over, the bad news can be released. President Reagan knew that folks didn't need government numbers to tell them if they were doing better or worse; most folks know how they are doing without reading the "Fed" reports; 
• suggesting this new data / old data was political in nature is way off base. 
• something else is going on.

Again, I may have this all wrong. It's a first "read." It will be interesting if this story has legs. My hunch: nope.

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The Book Page

Braiding Sweetgrass: Indigenous Wisdom, Scientific Knowledge, and the Teaching of Plants, Robin Wall Kimmerer, c. 2013.

This book has been added to my Autumn, 2022, reading list.

The author is a member of the Citizen Potawatomi Nation.

Hierochloe odorata (sweet grass or holy grass), from northern North America and Eurasia.

Hierochloe odorata or Anthoxanthum nitens (commonly known as sweet grass, manna grass, Mary’s grass or vanilla grass, and as holy grass in the UK, bison grass e.g. by Polish vodka producers)is an aromatic herb native to northern Eurasia and North America.

It is considered sacred by many Indigenous peoples in Canada and the United States.

It is used as a smudge, in herbal medicine and in the production of distilled beverages (e.g., Żubrówka, Wisent). It owes its distinctive sweet scent to the presence of coumarin.

Coumarin:

Coumarin is a colorless crystalline solid with a sweet odor resembling the scent of vanilla and a bitter taste. It is found in many plants, where it may serve as a chemical defense against predators.

By inhibiting synthesis of vitamin K, a related compound is used as the prescription drug warfarin – an anticoagulant – to inhibit formation of blood clots, deep vein thrombosis, and pulmonary embolism.

From wiki:

The Potawatomi, also spelled Pottawatomi and Pottawatomie (among many variations), are a Native American people of the western Great Lakes region, upper Mississippi River and Great Plains. 

They traditionally speak the Potawatomi language, a member of the Algonquin family. 

The Potawatomi call themselves Neshnabé, a cognate of the word Anishinaabe. 

The Potawatomi are part of a long-term alliance, called the Council of Three Fires, with the Ojibway and Odawa (Ottawa). In the Council of Three Fires, the Potawatomi are considered the "youngest brother" and are referred to in this context as Bodwéwadmi, a name that means "keepers of the fire" and refers to the council fire of three peoples. 

In the 18th century, they were pushed to the west by European/American encroachment and eventually removed from their lands in the Great Lakes region to reservations in Oklahoma. 

Under Indian Removal, they eventually ceded many of their lands, and most of the Potawatomi relocated to Nebraska, Kansas, and Indian Territory. Some bands survived in the Great Lakes region and today are federally recognized as tribes. In Canada, over 600 First Nation governments or bands are recognized. In the US, 574 tribes or bands are federally recognized.