Flashback -- September 20, 2019

Shortly after posting the North Dakota crude oil and natural gas production data for July, 2019, in which new production records were set for the second straight month, a reader wrote the following note. I've been so busy, I did not get around to posting it until today. I vividly recall these "oil drum" posts and I believe I linked them at the time. I was going to look them up, but never got around to it.

Again, this is from a reader after North Dakota posted new all-time production records:

An oldie, but goodie:

http://theoildrum.com/node/3868

Because of the highly variable nature of shale reservoirs, the characteristics of the historical Bakken production, and the fact that per-well rates seem to have peaked, it seems unlikely that total Bakken production will exceed 2x to 3x current rate of 75,000 BOPD.

A year later he published another negative article, failing to specifically mention the previous fail.

http://theoildrum.com/node/5928

Admittedly, I was a bit hasty in my prediction of peak rate. However, I will go out on another limb and say that 1 million barrels per day is going to be really tough, especially if the decline rates mentioned by a poster above are wide spread. Let's hope you're right and I'm wrong. If it did reach 1 million barrels per day, it would absolutely be "moving the needle" on national production." [In comments after being challenged.]

Never heard from Mr. Piccolo again...