Monday Coming -- August 17, 2014; 9/18 Wells To DRL Status; KOG With A "High-IP" Well; US Corn Harvest To Set New Records

Monday, August 18, 2014

• 26200, drl, Zavanna, Beagle 32-29 3H, Springbrook, no production data,
• 26394, drl, CLR, Limousin 4-3H1, Sanish, no production data,
• 26418, 572, Fidelity, Ben 19-20H,  Dutch Henry Butte, t3/14; cum 36K 6/14;
• 26447, 383, Fidelity, Mary P 19-20H, Dutch Henry Butte, t4/14; cum 20K 6/14;
• 27059, drl, BR, Denali 21-4TFH 2NH, Johnson Corner, no production data,
• 27254, 671, Hess, En-Hanson A-155-94-0607H-3, Manitou, t7/14; cum --
• 27326, 2,430, KOG, Skunk Creek 4-8-17-13H, South Fork, t7/14; cum --
• 27539, 228, Sinclair, Nelson 1-36H, Kittleson Slough, t4/14; cum 12K 6/14;

Sunday, August 17, 2014

• 26398, drl, CLR, Limousin 8-3H1, Sanish, no production data,
• 27052, 155, Corinthian, Corinthian Backman 12-35 2H, North Souris, Spearfish well, t4/14; cum 7K 6/14;
• 27452, drl, CLR, Hartman 10-28H, Chimney Butte, no production data,

Saturday, August 16, 2014

• 26199, drl, Zavanna, Beagle 32-29 2TFH, Springbrook, no production data, 
• 26391, drl, CLR, Limousin 1-3H, Sanish, no production data,
• 27253, drl, Hess, EN-Hanson A-155-94-0607H-4, Manitou, no production data,
• 27357, drl, XTO, Franchuk 24X-19E, Murphy Creek, no production data,

Active rigs:

	8/17/2014	08/17/2013	08/17/2012	08/17/2011	08/17/2010
Active Rigs	194	183	199	191	138

RBN Energy: Houston storage; the series continues. 

The Wall Street Journal

This global warming stuff --> more rain --> more corn --> more ethanol --> what's not to like. The Journal is reporting:

"We're going to drown in corn this year."

The assessment, from Jeff Brown, 45 years old, a fifth-generation farmer outside Decatur, IL, sums up the view of most people who grow, trade or process corn as they brace for another record U.S. harvest.

Months of wet weather have fueled expectations for a corn crop so large that mounds of the grain will be a common sight across the Midwest after the harvest, which starts next month.

The U.S. Agriculture Department projected last week that production will exceed 14 billion bushels, topping last year's historic harvest. Many analysts think this week's closely watched Pro Farmer crop tour will offer further evidence of a remarkably healthy crop, and that demand isn't likely to rise enough to offset the sharp increase in supply.

The drop in corn prices could benefit consumers by curbing inflation in grocery-store products that contain the ingredient, like cereals and cookies, though analysts expect few packaged-food companies to make significant price cuts.

The packaged-food companies will pocket the profit.

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This is not good: that unarmed man in Ferguson was shot six times, including two to the head. A couple of days ago I asked when the National Guard would be called in; that happened overnight.
I thought the general consensus was less police/military presence was needed.

Baraq widened the air campaign in northern Iraq.

Pre-season college football: Florida State, Alabama, Oregon, Oklahoma, and Ohio State.

Little League Baseball: 13 y/o Mo'ne Davis is a 70-mph ace; one of the best sports stories of the summer.

Global cooling: natural gas prices falling -- temperatures this summer have been tepid, with weather forecasts through the end of August turning cool. Ah, yes, global cooling. Nineteen years now without any warming. Or, maybe the rate of warming has just slowed. Depends.

Related. Heard on the Street: 

Can you hear that? It's the deafening silence of New Yorkers not switching on their air conditioning units.

Easier to hear are muffled sobs from natural-gas traders.

Having started 2014 with cheers as the polar vortex revived the price of their favorite commodity, they now see the same weather dynamic flooding the eastern U.S. with cooler air when the region should be stifling. That cuts demand for air conditioning, electricity and gas.

Front-month futures, which poked above $6 per million British thermal units in February, are now below $3.80.

Even worse: Unless winter is ferocious for the second year running, 2015 is shaping up to be another washout. Natural-gas stocks were depleted by last winter, leading many to conclude that the need to rebuild them heralded a turn, finally, in the market's fortunes.

By late March, inventories were 55% below their five-year average. But stocks have been catching up. In the week ending Aug. 8, they rose by 78 billion cubic feet. This caused a flurry of optimism as it was below estimates—but it was still way above what is normal at this time of year.

Not to worry: it's gonna be a very, very cold winter. 

The Los Angeles Times

Top story: Ferguson -- governor calls in National Guard.

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The 18-Year Pause That Refreshes

It's Just Too Complex To Predict The Climate

Too complex:

A new paper published in Nature Geoscience finds excuse #32 for the 18 year "pause" in global warming that sophisticated IPCC climate models failed to predict. According to the paper, the IPCC models didn't predict the pause because they are too complex, but if a model with "reduced complexity" and the already known changes of natural variability is used, all is well. 

The simpler model uses observations of ENSO, solar activity, and stratospheric aerosols to retrospectively predict the known climate change, not nearly as challenging as making a true prospective prediction of climate change before the natural variability is known. 

I can't make this stuff up.  My hunch is the paper is too complex for Algore to read.