Thursday, October 1, 2015

Thursday Data -- October 1, 2015

Natural gas fill rate (dynamic link): 98.  In the East Region, stocks were 25 Bcf below the 5-year average following net injections of 62 Bcf.

Gasoline demand (dynamic link): still decreasing as we go into the autumn months; around 500,000 bopd higher than one year ago.

The July crude oil import data has just been released:
  • Saudi Arabia: 1.172 million bopd for the month of July, 2015, vs 1.231 million bopd one year ago
  • For the past decade, the range has been 1.499 million bopd - 1.026 million bopd
All countries: 9.51 million bopd, July, 2015
  • OPEC: 2.896 million bopd, July 2015
  • Kuwait took a huge drop, from 313,700 bopd to 143,741 bopd
  • Nigeria, on the other hand, month-over-month, a huge jump: 20,900 bopd to 130,064 bopd 
  • Venezuela remained fairly flat
  • Mexico is about the same as Venezuela
  • Canada is major source of US imported crude oil at 3.52 million bopd 
I assume much of the US imported oil is heavy oil required by our Gulf Coast refineries. I assume most of Saudi imported oil goes to the refineries it owns along the Gulf Coast. I seem to recall US Saudi refineries require about a million bopd.

 Job Watch

Wow, first time unemployment claims surge 10,000, and this is the Bloomberg headline: US Jobless Claims Are Near Decade Lows. Six or seven years into the recovery and a gazillion dollars in stimulus, I would hope that jobless claims were at decade lows.

And yet applications surge 10,000 today. It is clear that these boilerplate articles are written ahead of time, and the numbers filled in when the data is released.

From the linked article, it turns out that not only did first time claims surge, they increased significantly more than expected:
Jobless claims climbed by 10,000 to 277,000 in the week ended Sept. 26. The median forecast of 48 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 271,000.
The four-week moving average fell to the lowest level in almost two months and the total number of people receiving benefits was the smallest in 15 years.
I'm somewhat surprised this was not the lede:
The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure than the weekly claims numbers, decreased to 270,750 last week, the lowest since early August, from 271,750.
Let's see, early August -- what was that? Six weeks ago? Whatever.

Ford's September Auto Sales

Six minutes after the market opens, the first day after the end of the month, auto companies release their sales data. Meanwhile, the EIA lags about two months with crude oil import data.


Ford's September sales:
  • sales increased 23% month-over-month; up 23% year-over-year
  • F-Series pick-up trucks up 28%
  • total truck sales at highest level in nine years
  • commercial vans post best September since 1987 -- up 86%
  • SUV sales up 27%; best September since 2003
  • Mustang sales up an astounding 199% -- best performance since 2007
All gas guzzlers.  

US Auto Sales, September, 2015

CNBC is reporting: 
  • best is more than a decade
  • 18.17 million total sales; best run rate since July, 2005
  • [note: entire Labor Day weekend fell in September for the first time since 2012]
  • GM: sales rose 12%, to 251,310 vehicles
  • Ford: sales rose 23%, to 221,599 vehicles
  • Fiat Chrysler: sales increased 14% to 193,019 vehicles; Jeep jumped 40%
  • VW: US sales rose 0.6% versus an expected decline of 7.3% in September

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