Graph Of The Week -- March 9, 2021

The graphic:

Week ending (?) -- not sure if "week of" or "week ending":

• A: July 12, 2020 -- four months into the global lockdown.
  
• B: November 15, 2020 -- just after Biden elected president.
  

• 1: February 7, 2021 -- week before the Deep Freeze; affected entire US.
  
• 2: February 14, 2021 -- lowest temperatures hit February 15; Texas lost power.
  
• 3: February 21, 2021 -- one week after the freeze.
  
• 4:  February 28, 2021 -- two weeks after the freeze.

I've always maintained -- and have posted it often on the blog -- that if I had but one metric to follow the economic well-being of the US, it would be "gasoline demand." 

March 2, 2021: Texas and Mississippi governors announcing lifting of restrictions. "Back to normal" by March 10, 2021, was the goal. 

Observations:

• gasoline demand fairly stable from point A to point 1;
• subtle peak in gasoline demand at time of presidential election;
• once results known, gasoline demand drops, but, of course, that was during the winter months;
• point 1: unremarkable
• point 2: nationwide freeze 
• point 3: one week later -- look how fast gasoline demand recovered;
• demand is higher than anything seen in previous eight months;
• and yet, no change in lockdown restrictions -- I've not seen anyone talk why this occurred;
• point 4: gasoline demand surges
• only two weeks after the nationwide freeze
• lifting of lockdown restrictions had not even been announced yet
  

So, not even two weeks post-Deep Freeze and no lifting of pandemic restrictions and gasoline demand surges.

OECD now doubling their GDP forecast for the US this year from their November, 2020, forecast, to their most recent forecast.

Posted at the time of the Deep Freeze:

• this would all be forgotten in two weeks (not to be taken out of context)
• things would be back to normal within two months;

Patrick De Haan (above) predicts "we" will consistently hit gasoline demand of nine million bbls per day this coming summer. The tea leaves suggest 9.5+ million could be very, very possible, if not likely.

As a reminder, from last week: