Sunday, September 8, 2019

Daily Note

 Polling: Real Clear Politics

115th  US Congress
Third 100 Days (second 50)
Days 250 - 300

October 28, 2019, T+50: Washington Post steals headline from The Onion on the death of Abu Bakr Baghdadi.

October 27, 2019, T+49: in WWII a lot of little battles and a lot of major battles were won/facilitated by disinformation. The killing of ISIS leader Abu Bakr Baghdadi was set up with the announcement that the US was withdrawing from Syria. I mentioned a few days ago that the announcement of the  withdrawal of 50 American troops (maybe 25) made the world go bonkers. In fact, that was all part of the plan. LOL. Can you imagine all the cell phone chatter from/to Baghdadi when Trump made that announcement. Wow.

October 26, 2019, T+48: I've always felt that the ultra-left would surge/win by a landslide in Iowa and New Hampshire, and then get blocked in South Carolina. Recent polling suggests that South Carolina could very, very likely surprise us. Momentum in Iowa and New Hampshire could carry Pocahontas to a win in South Carolina. It's hers to win in New Hampshire and Iowa, as Biden implodes and Bernie has maxed out with his base (15% at best). But I always thought South Carolina would be the Achilles heel for Pocahontas. But look at the South Carolina numbers following the October 15, 2019, debate:
  • Biden is dropping fast; now down to 30 in the Post and Courier; in the P&C poll in May, 2019, he was at 46% and Pocahontas was at 8 percent
  • Pocahontas: as liberal as Bernie and even scarier, she is now polling almost 20% in the P&C
  • but this is what should alarm Trump and the rest of the Dem candidates: South Caroline is not as conservative as one might expect -- and they favor impeachment -- based on the way polling is trending
  • Buttigieg is at 9% -- but that's where he was in the P&C back in May, 2019, so no movement
  • Steyer, not even on the chart back in May; enters at 1% August, 2019, is now at 4.5%; obviously he's not a player, but the needle is starting to move in South Caroline supporting Trump's impeachment
  • the "Biden implosion-Steyer support-Bernie peak-Pocahontas surge" in South Carolina suggests to me that Pocahontas' momentum in Iowa and New Hampshire could carry her to a win in South Carolina
October 25, 2019, T+47: A brand new poll has been posted over at RealClearPolitics. This is a biggie. A lot of folks consider Quinnipiac one of the more reliable pollsters. If so, look at this:
  • Biden: 21% (wow -- down from 31% where he has been trending for quite some time)
  • Pocahontas: surges to 28%; and clearly out-pacing Biden; should give Biden huge concern
  • Sanders: pretty much unchanged at 15%
  • others: pretty much in line with where they've been for quite some time -- going nowhere
  • Klobuchar momentum: if one considers a jump from 2% to 3% momentum, Klobuchar has it
  • Buttigieg at 10% nationally, but in South Carolina he will be lucky to poll 3%
  • but that spread between Pocahontas and Biden in the Quinnipiac poll, I think, will turn out to be an inflection point
October 24, 2019, T+46: Hillary's use of "deplorables" may have turned the tide (granted, a small tide); now Trump's calls his adversaries, "human scum." Not good.

October 23, 2019, T+45: a reminder -- some states are scrapping "primaries" and/or "caucuses."

October 22, 2019, T+44: until the actual polls came out after the last debate, the mainstream media had Klobuchar and Buttigieg winning the nomination; Biden imploding; Pocahontas surging. Now that the polls are coming out fast and furious after the last debate, the Drudge Report headline: Dem panic -- is there anyone out there that can defeat Trump? Five polls now released that polled folks on/after the latest debate; four of those clearly after the debate. Of those four latest polls:
  • Biden, if anything, widened lead over Pocahontas; Politico, has Biden at 30% and Pocahontas at 21%; The Hill, 27% vs 19% with Biden ahead;
  • Sanders: stubbornly flat at 16.3%; heart attack? what heart attack?
  • Buttigieg: 5 -- 6 --  6 -- 6
  • Harris: 7 -- 6 -- 5 -- 5
  • Klobuchar: 2 -- 2 -- 1 -- 1
  • Castro: no longer shows up
October 21, 2019, T+43: fact check, now that two polls have come out that include the day of and the days following the most recent debate:
  • the media buzz: Pocahontas surging, Biden faltering; in fact --
    • the national polls show Biden dropping a bit (trend for him, troubling), while mixed for Pocahontas; depends on the poll; overall, maybe Pocahontas has gained a point to 25% but subtle). In the Iowa and New Hampshire polls, she and Biden are statistically tied, which has been true for quite some time)
  • Sanders is dropping, slowly but steadily; now down to 15% but that was before his huge Queens, NYC, rally, attended by all the folks that would have had Amazon jobs had AOC not stopped that corporate greed
  • the media buzz: Buttigieg is surging: in fact --
    • last five polls -- 4 - 8 - 7 - 6 - 5 with an overall average of 6.0.
    • in Iowa: 14 -- 16 -- 13; with an overall average of 14.3
    • in New Hampshire: 10 -- 7 -- 9; with an overall average of 8.7
    • in South Carolina: 2.5%
  • the media buzz: Klobuchar has gained momentum; it's her time to strike; in fact --
    • she polls #8 of 13 candidates; in every poll, and we mean every poll: 2.0%; not an iota of movement one way or the other; 
    • Iowa: are you kidding? also 2.0%
    • New Hampshire: much, much better, at 2.3%. LOL.
    • South Carolina: 1%
  • everybody else: statistically at zero

October 20, 2019, T+42: Trump blinks; won't hold G-7 at one of his resorts as announced just a day earlier.

October 19, 2019, T+41: the political meme? Pocahontas is surging. I don't see it. The most recent poll, Politico, shows on a national level, Biden at 29.2% and Pocahontas as 23.4%. Yes, in New Hampshire and Iowa it appears Pocahontas may be surging, but in South Carolina and Nevada she has no chance. Sanders is yet to implode. Everyone else unchanged. Steyer at 1.6%. In South Carolina, Biden outpolls Pocahontas and Biden combined. Can you say, "brokered convention"?
Again, the "DNC superdelegate rules": link here. If no candidate has "50% +1" at opening of the DNC, superdelegates cannot vote in the first round. If no one gets "50% + 1" in the first round of voting, then the superdelegates can vote in the second round.
October 18, 2019, T+40: current meme -- Pocahontas is "surging" in the polls. Interestingly, there are no publicly released polls that show that. Real Clear Politics post every new national poll as they become available. The most recent poll is from The Economist, taken the three days before (to include the day of) the most recent Democrat debate. In that poll, Pocahontas is 29 - 25 over Biden. The Quinnipiac poll taken over almost the same time period shows Pocahontas, 30 - 27 over Biden. Having said that, I firmly believe that Biden is toast. The billionaire Democrat donors have a real problem: Biden is not electable; a real boor; probably a criminal; and definitely showing signs of senile dementia; Pocahontas is downright scary. And would you really want to attend one of her fund-raising parties?

October 17, 2019, T+39:Biden campaign low on cash. It's all over folks. The question is: what is the source of this story: the Biden campaign? The Hillary war room? Pocahontas? Trump? I would start with the Hillary War Room. 
  • Hillary must be getting anxious. If Joe can't last through Super Tuesday, Pocahontas may have the votes to take the nomination going into the convention. My hunch: behind the scenes, Hillary starts a move to elevate Buttigieg to stop Pocahontas.
October 16, 2019, T+38: no articles of impeachment on the horizon; and, now, Nancy Pelosi says she won't even hold a House vote on "impeachment inquiry." First poll taken though 10/15 (just hours before the debate) by the Economist:
  • Pocahontas: 29%
  • Biden: 25%
But overall:
  • Biden: 29.4% (my hunch: this is his high-water mark; from now one he recedes to high teens)
  • Pocahontas: 23.4% (my hunch: this is her low-water mark; will move to 35% by time of convention)
  • Sanders: 15.4% (and will stay here)
  • Buttigieg: 5.6%
  • Kamala: 5.2% (after seeing clips of her in the debate last night, hard to believe she polls this high)
  • Beto: 2.8%
  • Yang: 2.2% 
  • Steyer: 1.4% -- $1 billion for every one then of a percent in the polls; if I were one of his heirs, I would be going bonkers --what a huge waste of money! The very definition of the Trump Derangement Syndrome;
October 15, 2019, T+37: the twelve dwarfs debate on CNN. Biden fades. For the record, last Quinnipiac poll before the debate:
  • Biden: 27
  • Pocahontas: 30
  • Bernie: 11
  • Buttigieg: 8
October 14, 2019, T+36: huge Trump rally in Minneapolis.

October 13, 2019, T+35: and so it goes. 

October 12, 2019, T+34: Trump pulling troops out of Syria; giving "green light" to Turkey to slaughter the Kurds; not going to go over well;

October 11, 2019, T+33: whistleblower afraid to testify to Congress in person; wants to answer questions in writing.

October 10, 2019, T+32; impeachment inquiry; Trump rally in Minneapolis, MN. If you listen carefully and are paying attention, in a tweet today (yesterday?) Hillary effectively announced she will run for president. 

October 9, 2019, T+31: impeachment inquiry -- Trump says he won't participate.

October 8, 2019, T+30: impeachment inquiry. 

October 7, 2019, T+29: death cross -- Pocahontas at 26.6; Biden at 26.4.

October 6, 2019, T+28:

October 5, 2019, T+27: Russia! Russia! Russia! Recession! Recession! Recession! Kavanaugh! Kavanaugh! Kavanaugh! Ukraine! Ukraine! Ukraine!

October 4, 2019, T+26: most interesting -- nothing out of Occasional Cortex since Pelosi agreed to the impeachment inquiry. An "inquiry" has no subpoena power. Kinda important. Mainstream media in agreement: Biden's campaign is over. Third in line: President (in waiting) Nancy Pelosi. Yes, the "trial" in the US Senate will be very short. LOL. Romney makes his move:

October 3, 2019, T+25: has this Congress done anything at all?

October 2, 2019, T+24: it turns out the "whistleblower" colluded with pencil-neck. Pencil-neck or his staff wrote the "whistleblower's" complaint. LOL. Bernie Sanders campaign is suspended. Bernie Sanders receiving free medical care somewhere in the US, and it's not ObamaCare. 

October 1, 2019, T+23: whistleblower changing story -- says he had first-hand knowledge; or Director, National Intelligence, was incorrect when he sent complaint to Congress. 

September 30, 2019, T+22: nothing changed --  looks more and more like a Romney vs Hillary in 2020, or failing that, a Romney vs Pocahontas.

September 29, 2019, T+21: looks more and more like a Romney vs Hillary in 2020, or failing that, a Romney vs Pocahontas.

September 28, 2019, T+20: it's pretty much agreed now that Hillary was behind the whistleblower scandal -- it will take out Biden, and possibly Trump. It will be interesting to see how Hillary takes out Pocahontas. Hillary is starting to emerge -- listening tour announced, and now a book tour. Keynote speaker at NARL.

September 27, 2019, T+19: impeachment headlines still dominate. Democrat polls keep coming out. Most recent show Biden at 28.4% and trending down. It will be interesting how the Ukraine story affects his polling. All polls averaged, Pocahontas at 21.7%. Sanders unchanged at 17.3%. Still looks like a brokered convention unless the super-delegates "steal"  it on the first vote. Harris at 4.9% -- never saw anyone implode so quickly, except perhaps Beto "hell, yes, we're gonna take your guns" at 2.4% and would be much worse were it not for two older polls giving him 4%; same for Castro, now at 1.3%. Still not sure which Castro is running.

September 26, 2019, T+18: the most recent polling is interesting. RealClearPolitics has added two more polls since last report: the Economist and Quinnipiac. I "trust" Quinnipiac. I do not "trust" the Economist, clearly one of the most liberal outlets. Having said that, in both polls:
  • Pocahontas: 27%, which beats Biden
  • Biden: 25.5%, averaging those two polls
  • overall now:
    • Biden: still below 30% at 29%
    • Pocahontas: 21.4% but that's with the two new polls (both 27%)
    • Sanders: steady at 17.3%
    • Buttigieg: 5.8%
    • Kamala: imploded; at 5%
    • Oddball Yang: 3.3%
    • Beto, "hell, yes, we're gonna take your guns": 2.6%
    • Booker: 2%
  • Now, about that impeachment. Transcript released; it's a nothing-burger, but even worse than that (for the Dems): the Ukrainian president said very, very clearly that he was never pressured at all; on top of that nothing ever came of the items Trump mentioned in the phone call; Trump has been all over the news networks; Trump is at 53% approval on Rasmussen, highest in recent weeks; Dems trying to spin this story their way, but the Americans see through this; so many story lines; will keep "journalists" busy for months; 

September 25, 2019, T+17: now that we've had a few more days since the last debate, but before the impeachment decision, we have new polling numbers. Again, my comments are based on the average as compiled by Real Clear Politics, linked above:
  • Biden: right at 29.6%, almost 30%
  • Pocahontas: at 19.7%, almost 20%
  • Sanders: 17.1%; 
  • the top three have all increased a point or two since the last poll average, which means that others down the totem pole, must have dropped further. Let's see:
    • Buttigieg: moved up to 6% from 5%
    • Kamala: continues to drop; now down below 6%, at 5.6%; was 6.2% and falling;
    • Yang: at 3.6%; also, up; up from 3%
    • Beto: down to 2.9% ("Hell, yes, we're going to take your guns.")
    • Booker: 2.6%
    • Castro (not sure which one): 1.3%
    • Steyer: at 0.7%; I'm still not sure how he qualified for the October debate
September 24, 2019, T+16: it's on. IMPEACHMENT.

September 23, 2019, T+15: some time ago I said that if Pocahontas were to surge, the Hillary war room would move into action. Pocahontas has surged and it appears she it is her nomination to lose. Today, it is announced that Hillary will begin a new listening tour. Coincidental? I think not. 

September 22, 2019, T+14: in politics, timing is everything. Just when Biden has an issue on which to on Trump, polls show that he is losing to Pocahontas.

September 21, 2019, T+13: And then there were nine. Cory Booker about to drop out. Polling at 2.8%, his votes will likely be spread among everyone but Crazy Bernie. I suppose Pocahontas could be biggest beneficiary. This is quite incredible. Kamala has fallen so far she now trails Buttigeig. Pocahontas is coming close to a statistical tie with Joe Biden: 31 - 26 in NBC/WSJ poll. Tea leaves suggest the following:
  • near-term, through 4Q19: three-way tie among Biden, Pocahontas, and Sanders with Sanders trending down; Pocahontas trending up; Biden polling up/down in a 28 - 32 polling range

  • mid-term: through 1Q20: Sanders slips significantly; his support going to Pocahontas; she overtakes Biden by a clear margin but not enough to take the first vote in the convention
  • leading up to the convention: Biden is clearly not going to get the nomination; it's clearly Pocahontas' convention to win; Sanders fading quickly as super-delegates move toward Pocahontas
  • first vote pending: Pocahontas by a very, very slim margin; rumors she and and Buttigieg could hook up
  • Hillary War Room: one last effort, at all costs, to stop Pocahontas; hell hath no fury like a scorned woman
  • September 20, 2019, T+12: Ukraine story still top story at Drudge.

    September 19, 2019, T+11: US House Judiciary Committee to impeach the president has fallen into chaos; even the media upset. Pelosi apparently wants the charade to stop. More and more it might be better for GOP to keep the investigation going. It prevents the US House Judiciary Committee from doing some real work with the Nadler agenda. He's up for re-election, apparently in a brutal political fight. 

    September 18, 2019, T+10: new poll out after New Mexico rally and attack on Saudi Arabia showing Trump's approval back to 50%. For "Trump approval rating," I only follow Rasmussen. After third Democrat debate, the tea leaves suggest Biden dropped a couple of points; Pocahontas up a couple of points, but Bernie maybe slightly ahead, putting him (barely) in second place. Most notable is how far Kamala has fallen. 

    September 17, 2019, T+9a: most recent polling data; the first data released after the third debate, Thursday, September 12, 2019. It's important to note that only new poll has been added (Politico). This is the average of five polls, only one poll (the Politico poll) was taken during and after the debate:
    • Biden: before the debate, 26.8%; now 26.2%
    • Bernie: 16.8%, unchanged, third, behind Pocahontas
    • Pocahontas: 17%, up from 16.8% -- surging ... LOL
    • Harris: falls a bit, from 6.5% to 6.2%
    • Buttigieg: up from 4.8% to 5%
    • Beto: up to 3% from 2.8% (but probably lost Texas for the Democrats)
    • Yang: unchanged at 3%
    • interestingly, the outlier is the most recent poll (Politico) which has Biden at 32%; everyone else has Biden in the mid-20s. Will the rest follow suit once they show their polls taken after the third debate?
    • in Texas, the last polling data was before September 10 (before the third debate); Quinnipiac had Beto at 16.5%; it will be interesting to see how Texas Dems appreciated his, "hell yes, we're gonna take your guns."
    September 17, 2019, T+9: even by Trump Derangement Syndrome standards, the noise generated by the false story the New York Times published this past weekend was "over the top." If something doesn't make sense, follow the money or google it. In this case neither works. My hunch: there are dots connecting this "over the top" hysteria with the health of RBG. I think the movers and shakers know something about RBG that is not being reported. Short list here. Probably hasn't changed but it's gonna be a woman.

    September 16, 2019, T+8: Trump in Rio Rancho, NM, for a rally tonight. Biggest thing New Mexico has seen in years. RRNM is a "suburb" on the northwest side of Albuquerque.

    September 15, 2019, T+7: third debate, the 10-DDD -- the Dems were close to taking Texas in the next presidential election, but "snap" polls show Beto ended that chance now and forever.

    September 14, 2019, T+6: Iran takes out Saudi's largest export facility. If Iranian oil storage not "mysteriously hit in next 48 hours I will be seriously disappointed. What would Bolton do?

    September 13, 2019, T+5: video of 10-DDD conclusively shows Biden almost lost his teeth. Mainstream media won't report.

    September 12, 2019, T+4: last poll before the 10-dwarf debate tonight. Shocking:
    • Biden: well below 30%; now at 26.8%; sharp downturn; the Reuters poll has him at 22%
    • Bernie: overtakes Pocahontas; back to 17.3%
    • Pocahontas: back to 16.8%; so much for that surge
    • Kamala: falls further; now at 6.5%
    • Buttigieg: still below 5% but back up to 4.8%
    • Yang: 3%
    • Beto: 2.8%
    • when you look at the state polling, it makes sense why Kamala (CA) and Beto (TX) stay in the race; at their state level, both Kamala and Beto do very, very well
    September 11, 2019, T+3: Trump wins two important elections in North Carolina; US Supreme Court supports Trump on southern surge ruling.

    September 10, 2019, T+2: Making America great: for first time ever, most new working-age hires in the US are people of color -- Washington Post, today.  Democrat response (see comments at linked article):
    • Bernie: resist!
    • Buttigieg: change course!
    • Beto: re-set!
    • Biden: what just happened? We need to get back to "normal."
    September 9, 2019, T+1: poll updates occurring almost daily; statistically it appears the changes mean nothing but following the trend is fascinating:
    • Biden: below 30% again (week following bloody eye; "details don't matter"; more pressure to release medical records);
    • Pocahontas: creeping upward; now at 18%; I think this may be her personal high
    • Crazy Bernie: back up to 17.5% which must be irritating Biden/Pocahontas to no end
    • Kamala: continues to implode; now at 7.2%
    • Buttigieg: below 5%; at 4.3%
    • Beto: at 2.3%
    • anyone below 3% is background noise
    • Castro (not sure which twin): below 1%, at 0.8%; Steyer must be furious
    DNC Convention: first round/second round
    • Biden, 30%
    • Pocahontas: 20%
    • Sanders: 20%
    DNC Convention: third round
    • Biden: 40%
    • Pocahontas: 40%
    • Sanders: 20%
    DNC Convention: fourth round
    • lots of speeches
    • horse-trading
    • anything could happen 
    • diva ex machina
    Good time to look at the "DNC superdelegate rules": link here. If no candidate has "50% +1" at opening of the DNC, superdelegates cannot vote in the first round. If no one gets "50% + 1" in the first round of voting, then the superdelegates can vote in the second round.
    115th  US Congress
    Third 100 Days (first 50)
    Days 200 - 250  
    Link here.  

    115th US Congress
    Second 100 Days
    Days 151 - 200

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