Investing -- May 17, 2023

Locator: 44670INV.

It took me a long time to figure out what Warren Buffett meant when he was said to have said, 

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine.”

But it certainly makes sense now.

For the past week, the market has drifted lower on talk from the GOP Speaker of the House that a "US default" was on the table. 

Today, the Dow surges when news media reports that both the President and the GOP Speaker of the House are telegraphing that the debt ceiling will be raised and there will be no default.

Whew. 

For me personally, as a long term investor, anxiety over a default has been wonderful.

Going back to Warren Buffett, I've been able to add to positions at very nice prices during all this talk.

With a rolling 30-year horizon it hardly matters whether I pay $35 / share for XYX, Inc, or $30/share, but it just feels good when I'm able to buy shares of great companies at discounted prices. 

I don't time the market; I simply buy every two weeks, twice a month. I may vary a little bit on what I buy based on the market but not by much, and certainly that will make no difference thirty years from now.

For example, some weeks ago I said I would no longer add any more energy to my portfolio, but when I see shares of great energy companies being sold at discount, I am likely to sell shares in other energy companies to take advantage of companies being sold at a discount. My overall energy allotment in the portfolio may not have changed, but the mix of energy companies may have changed. 

For at least twenty years, I wished I was part owner of the MMP pipeline network. Now I am, and, will likely have more exposure when I buy in June.

But "new" money is no longer going to energy. I am simply way too overweight in energy. It's as simple as that. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

NVDA: up 91% in six months; NVDA is an AI play, specifically ChatGPT:

My hunch: within a year, Chrome or Google or Microsoft will market a device that will look a lot like a laptop computer or a tablet, that does two things: generates ChatGPT reports, and prints them wirelessly to a HPQ printer. 

The ChatGPT device will sell for less than $250 and the printer for less than $75, and bundled, the two will be sold at discount for $299. The Chinese will get there first, and American software / hardware companies will race to be second. 

I think a tablet, about 7" by 5" makes more sense than a laptop device. Every teacher in American will have two devices on his/her desk: a computer of some sort and a ChatGPT device.

And, going a step further/farther: incorporate the software / hardware in an EV and call it CarChatGPT.

"Siri: I'm driving into San Antonio today. Give me a 300-word summary -- bullet format -- of what I need to know."

Wow, there aren't enough hours in the day to do all the things I want to do. LOL.

Speaking of which, TSM has had a great few days. Check out the one day, five-day and six-month action. TSM is an Apple, Inc.,  play.

Folks might recall these stories from the other day:

Locator: 44655AAPL.

Link here.

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Apple > Russell 2000

Link here.

Locator: 44658SEMIS. 

Semis are tracked here.

Link here.

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I Know A Guy That Knows A Guy That Knows A Guy

Gilding the lily.

I'm no apologist for Warren Buffett but I'm a bit disappointed in the "title of this article" suggesting that Warren Buffett was hooked.

Close reading of the article suggests that Warren Buffett himself was never involved, and that those involved were executives of a wholly-owned subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway, and who noticed something was fishy before the deal closed. The fact that the author does not say the deal closed, suggests to me, in fact, Berkshire Hathaway wholly-owned subsidiary executives never closed on the deal. 

More importantly, the Obama administration -- the Obama White House -- was definitely snagged, at least based on my reading of the article.

The article is more about the alleged crook and how the Ponzi scheme worked than about any major financial issue. The money lost -- and we're taking dozens of very big corporations -- amounted to "about" $1 billion.

In comparison:

• Bernie Madoff: $19 billion
• R. Allen Stanford: $7 billion
• Solyndra: $535 million federal loan guarantee; bankruptcy two years later.

For me: a great yarn but hardly worth suggesting Warren Buffett was hooked. And if he was, a small, very small percent of $1 billion vs a market cap of $720 billion for Berkshire Hathaway.