Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Bakken DUCs -- January, 2022

Raw data provided by a reader. Transferring the reader's data to my spreadsheet could have resulted in errors, but it appears correct as received.

My narrative has not changed: in the Bakken, rig counts don't matter (don't take that out of context); frack spreads do. However, across all shale plays, analysts now suggest the tide has turned and rigs are not keeping up with fracking activity as seen by decline in the number of DUCs. I linked an incredibly good analysis yesterday on this very issue, especially why DUCs are particularly important. 


Bakken


Drilled

Completed

DUC

Dec-13

--

--

570

Jan-14

178

143

605

Feb-14

210

158

657

Mar-14

224

218

663

Apr-14

217

207

673

May-14

226

208

691

Jun-14

236

225

702

Jul-14

250

243

709

Aug-14

226

207

728

Sep-14

256

232

752

Oct-14

186

243

695

Nov-14

209

202

702

Dec-14

224

194

732

Jan-17

62

52

781

Feb-17

51

58

774

Mar-17

78

71

781

Apr-17

78

104

755

May-17

94

82

767

Jun-17

76

105

738

Jul-17

95

103

730

Aug-17

99

110

719

Sep-17

98

97

720

Oct-17

104

110

714

Nov-17

93

86

721

Dec-17

77

65

733

Jan-18

107

72

768

Feb-18

74

74

768

Mar-18

95

90

773

Apr-18

109

110

772

May-18

124

131

765

Jun-18

108

118

755

Jul-18

134

155

734

Aug-18

108

138

704

Sep-18

108

122

690

Oct-18

120

118

692

Nov-18

110

99

703

Dec-18

108

70

741

Jan-19

120

71

790

Feb-19

108

56

842

Mar-19

111

110

843

Apr-19

118

112

849

May-19

127

127

849

Jun-19

118

149

818

Jul-19

122

122

818

Aug-19

122

144

796

Sep-19

110

88

818

Oct-19

116

108

826

Nov-19

96

88

834

Dec-19

94

86

842

Jan-20

99

98

843

Feb-20

94

100

837

Mar-20

94

108

823

Apr-20

69

33

859

May-20

33

14

878

Jun-20

18

11

885

Jul-20

18

22

881

Aug-20

19

27

873

Sep-20

18

51

840

Oct-20

19

41

818

Nov-20

20

31

807

Dec-20

20

50

777

Jan-21

20

42

755

Feb-21

19

26

748

Mar-21

25

47

726

Apr-21

27

52

701

May-21

29

68

662

Jun-21

31

65

628

Jul-21

32

62

598

Aug-21

39

66

571

Sep-21

41

68

544

Oct-21

42

71

515

Nov-21

43

73

485

Dec-21

46

73

458

 

2 comments:

  1. As per quick analysis of the data presented, need about 60 wells drilled/ month to remain even. Given what you have presented in the past few months, as long as we stay in the “sweet spots”, we would need about 45 rigs operating to stay so called even.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "Forty-five" is about the most reasonable number anyone has suggested. I can't disagree.

      You know that I'm very obstinate about this whole issue -- rig count vs frack spread count -- but I'm gradually coming to agree with those who say more rigs / more drilling is needed.

      Anecdotally, it seems frack spreads are now keeping up with drilling and by spring we will need to see more drilling. Generally, not much fracking is done during the winter, so that may keep the DUC count up for the next six months (winter; then spring thaw -- road conditions).

      Getting to 45 rigs shouldn't be all that difficult. There are several operators that have no active rigs in North Dakota, and several more that have but one rig and should have two to three rigs if labor is available.

      Delete

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