Thursday, September 5, 2019

Two Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- September 5, 2019

  • making America great -- private payrolls grew by 195,000
    • forecast: 140,000 
    • 100,000 of those new jobs came in education and health services
    • the jump comes amid heightened fears that the US could slip into recession in next 12 months -- CNBC
  • unemployment 
Bellwether: XOM. I misunderstood the headline; completely missed it. Whatever. Here's the story:
Exxon Mobil Corp. Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods is eyeing oil and natural gas deals despite calls to reduce emissions, saying any shift in the world’s energy supply will take decades.
“Energy transitions take a long time,” Woods said Wednesday at the Barclays CEO Energy-Power Conference in New York. “In the meantime, the world’s rising demand for energy must be met.”
Exxon sees oil demand growing at 0.6% per year over the long term and demand for natural gas increasing 1.3% per year even as policy makers look for ways to wean countries off of fossil fuels. That means significant new investments, including acquisitions, will be needed, Woods said, even though shareholders are calling for Big Oil to reduce spending and return more cash to shareholders.
More consolidation is in the offing for independent shale drillers, and Exxon will be watching for potential acquisition targets, he said.

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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off confidential list today -- Thursday, September 5, 2019: 15 for the month; 147 for the quarter:
  • 36015, SI/NC, RimRock, Two Shields Butte 5--24-16H3U, Heart Butte, no production data,  (#17981, #20511, #19263)
  • 35223, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Federal A-LS-151-95-0915H-5, Blue Butte, no production data, (#18105, #18104)
Active rigs:

Active Rigs6164573375

RBN Energy: Lotus midstream's fast-growing role in Permian crude transportation.
The Permian Basin has attracted more than its share of midstream start-up companies over the past few years, and for good reason. The region has experienced big gains in crude oil, natural gas and NGL production, and that’s put stress on the Permian’s already significant pipeline infrastructure and spurred the development of many new projects. One new midstreamer that’s made a big splash is Lotus Midstream, which, since it was formed in early 2018, has partnered with some of the Permian’s biggest players — including ExxonMobil and Plains All American — to advance the now-sanctioned 1.5-MMb/d Wink-to-Webster crude pipeline.
It’s also acquired Occidental Petroleum’s (Oxy) Centurion pipeline system, which includes a lot of crude gathering pipe and is one of the two main takeaway links between the Permian and the Cushing, OK, hub. What’s Lotus up to, and how is it shaping Permian crude transportation? Today, we examine what has quickly become one of the largest midstreamers in the U.S.’s hottest shale play.


  1. It's actually do-able. Figure the following:
    market cap: 44B
    50% premium: 22B
    LT debt: 15B

    Figure a couple B for short term debt net of cash and accounts payable. And 7B for transaction costs. Something like ~90B ought to do it.

    XOM is about 290 mkt cap. They have rock solid bonds rating and 160 B of long term debt. So, I think they could go in the hole to buy the company and still not be too distressed. Lot of refinery and chemicals assets that can tolerate higher leverage ratios.

    The key thing would be not screwing up the culture. They tried doing that with XTO but then threw in the towel and moved them all down to Houston. Now maybe XTO wasn't the same thing as EOG. And maybe the whole company is getting enough shale focus for it to be respected in the company. But still...need to think if you are just buying assets or want some of what makes EOG special. And then how not to obliterate it.

    You can make an argument that there are decent synergies in terms of basins as EOG and XTO are in some of the same places.

    1. Wow, you are fast. You saved me some work. Thank you. Seriously, thank you for taking time to write a long note; much appreciated.