Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- February 19, 2020

Wow, what a great day. Sense and sensibility returning to the market. Headline: NASDAQ has record open as cases of coronavirus slow down.

Tesla: anyone invested in the market should give a "shout-out" to Tesla and Elon Musk.

Without question, what is driving the market right now: FOMO (fear of missing out).

The economic numbers, the interest rates, the jobless numbers, US govt bonds, the headlines (global anxieties) have not changed over the past year -- what we see "today" we have been seeing for the past year, and yet the market is on a tear.

Even with coronavirus, the US market remains robust.

The only thing left to explain this market is FOMO.

And what is the poster child for FOMO? Tesla.

And it's "dragging" every other MAGA stock along (Microsoft, Apple, Google, and Amazon) and they in turn are "dragging" along all the rest.

There are a few hiccups, but even Boeing investors are in FOMO, and yet the writing on the wall suggests the 737 MAX debacle is far from over.

Spectrum television: I used to complain about the high cost of cable. And I still do. But, wow, what "bang for the buck." I have "Spectrum TV" wherever I have an internet connection and with wi-fi, awesome.

McDonald's gift card: I'm lovin' it. Morning coffee at Starbucks, as much as $7.50 if I get something to eat along with coffee; and refills, 50 cents. At McDonald's never more than $2.25 and that includes "senior coffee" at 69 cents with free refills. Plenty of seating at McDonald's; not so at Starbucks, any more. More homeless folks at our local Starbucks than at our local McDonald's.

Chicago. See this note, "doomsday chronicles: Chicago re-visited." The internet is wonderful. One can find the government data and do one's own comparison. I"m not convinced that Chicago is in as bad a shape as folks make it out to be over at sites such as Zero Hedge. Much of it is perception. More on that later.

Procreate application for the iPad. I've been talking about that recently. It is awesome. Sophia loves it and I just came up with a new use for it. Can't wait to try it out with Sophia. This is really, really "crude," not ready for prime time, but it gives one an idea of what one can do with Procreate:


In addition to being really, really cool, Sophia loves the Procreate app, so she will love doing arithmetic on it. And one can do a thousand "sheets" of arithmetic and she can do them whenever / wherever she wants, including during the drive to school. Yes, I know there are "arithmetic apps" out there, but she loves Procreate; might as well take advantage of it.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Dividend announcements yesterday: BAX, unchanged; DVN, Devon Energy, increased to 11 cents; Genuine Parts, increased to 79 cents, paying over 3%; North American Tanker, increased to 7 cents, paying almost 9% (I lost a lot of money on this one some years ago; I wasn't paying attention); 

Ex-div, link here: Exelon, paying 3.1%; increased div by 5.5%; Centerpoint, paying 4.3%, increased div by 0.9%; Microsoft, paying 1.1%.

US home construction: dipped 3.6% in January. Follows the December surge.

Love him, hate him, he doesn't hold back.

Most presidents sign their pardons/commutations in the dead of night, just before they leave office, and no announcement. Trump: in the middle of the campaign season, on the tarmac, extemporaneously in answer to a reporter's question. Press can't get enough of him. Again, showed real compassion. The press did not report the pardons/commutations of (was it?) eleven women. He specifically asked for his team to find more women that needed to be considered. Of course, that seems sexist. Their families won't mind. These eleven women were completely unknown to 99.99% of Americans (and the press).  No political gain for doing this; simply the right thing. Complete list here.

Bloomberg: African-American and Latino young males can't find jobs because they don't know how to apply; how to conform to the white man's workplace. And so it goes. He will lose Virginia on his gun stance. Wow, huge digression. Sorry.

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Okay, Back To Chicago

Link here for great graphic. Yes, it's from 2016, but these things don't change much over a couple of years and we'll show more recent data later. "Tax collections by state, per capita, state and local" ranking:

#1: New York and the only state in its "bracket"
#2: Connecticut
#3: New Jersey
$4: North Dakota -- surprise, surprise, huh?
#5: Massachusetts 
#6: Hawaii
#8: California
#11: Illinois
#29: Texas
#44: Arizona
#46: Florida

As promised, more recent figures. From 2018. But only the state tax revenue per capita. This list does not include local taxes -- see above. As noted, things don't change much, over a couple of years. In the list above, North Dakota ranked near the top (#4) with highest state/local taxes. In the 2018, ranking, North Dakota was #1 (the list includes DC, which I have removed):

#1: North Dakota -- yes, #1 once you remove DC from the list
#2: Hawaii
#3: Connecticut
#4: Vermont (#10 on the above list)
#5: Minnesota -- surprise, surprise -- both ND and MN rank above New York and Illinois;
#6: New York
#7: California
#9: Massachusetts  
#10: New Jersey
#21: Illinois: right in the middle of the pack;
#49: Texas -- removing local taxes, drops to the very bottom;
#40: Arizona
#44: South Dakota
#45: Florida
#50: South Carolina

This list also includes ranking by percent of income, and North Dakota still ranks #1 (with DC removed).

Comments:

• annual income is a whole lot less in the midwest / fly-over / midcontinent than it is in the northeast, and yet Minnesota and North Dakota rank higher (worse) than New York, Massachusetts, California; and as far as I know, these lists are raw per capita data, not adjusted; if adjusted, I stand corrected;
• so, if "things" are worse in northeast / New England, it has more to do with local taxes than state income tax; voters have more say in local taxes and state income taxes (and even less say in federal taxes)
• many of those states with high state tax also have high property taxes
• two states with no state income tax are said to have high property taxes but yet the state/local figures do not bear that out
• for all that talk about Illinois, it seems once one drills down, it's not quite as bad as it appears; the real problem for Illinois is its location; Illinois, if located in the northeast / New England would fit right in, but it's located in a low-tax neighborhood: Indiana (#26); Ohio (#37). But at #21, Illinois is doing better than Wisconsin (#17) and Michigan (#22) -- again, I've removed DC from the rankings;
• perception: like New York State, Illinois has another "geography" problem: there is Illinois, and, then, there is Chicago. Take out Chicago and Illinois as a whole would be in even better shape
• for me, the bottom line is this: regardless of where "Illinois" is right now with regard to financial difficulties, the question is whether the voters are all that concerned; it's the local taxes that seem to be the big discriminator (compare the 2016 state/local list with the 2018 state list;
• one could argue that Illinois is a most progressive state; willing to reward its state workers (teacher, firemen, police) with a better income in retirement than other states; and, oh by the way, almost all that retirement money is re-circulated within the economy; I doubt the majority of retirees are putting their money in savings;
• and what's with North Dakota being #1 on the state list, and $4 on the state/local list; where is all that money going?
• Montana: #28; #37
• South Dakota: #44; #31

Disclaimer:

• I do this quickly; typographical and content errors are likely
• anyone can find any list of data to support their own biases

Personal note: I always thought North Dakota taxes were high.

I paid ND taxes when I was assigned to Grand Forks AFB, after I moved from California. Once in the military, if serving overseas, one can "choose" state of residence based on very, very "loose" criteria. I chose California as my state of residence: California was one state that had no state income tax for military members serving outside of California. I did everything I could to prevent re-assignment to California on my return to the states.

I have lived in/visited almost every state in the union (including Hawaii/Alaska) and I have never noted much difference in the quality of life in high-tax states vs low-tax states. In fact, Texas, a low-tax state has perhaps the best highway system in the country, its public schools are incredible; its state colleges and universities consistently rank high in the nation; retail and residential communities are first-rate. And generally, no shoveling snow in the winter.

Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be typographical and content errors. I may have misread the graphics.