Tuesday, February 5, 2019

Lots Of Rambling And Nothing About The Bakken. If You Came Here For The Bakken, Scroll Up, Down, Or To The Right -- February 5, 2019

North Texas weather: temperature almost hit a record high yesterday. Eighty degrees; the record was 82 degrees. This morning, 0-dark-thirty, very, very warm, muggy; I spent ten seconds wiping the moisture off the car windows. Yes, I didn't bike into work. I am doing a lot of driving in the morning taking the granddaughters to school. 

Global warming: if this is AGW, bring it on. Beautiful, beautiful weather.

By the way: 0-dark-thirty -- driving into work this morning, wow, I had flashbacks of being in Germany thirty-six years ago, driving my BMW out to flight squadron operations, taking the brief, then "stepping" to the F-15 for an early morning flight. It was always foggy in the morning in Germany. The brief was at 0-dark-thirty, but by the time we launched, it was always a beautiful, beautiful day. I vividly remember a typical day -- my wife never knew -- I would leave in the morning; step; air combat mission (ACM) over the north channel; lunch at an RAF base in southeastern England; then another ACM on the way back to Germany; low-level over the Eifel (region of Germany, not the tower), and then back to base; and, home in time for dinner. Those were the days. This is quite amazing: Bitburg AB, Germany, 1981, in the video below. I was stationed at Bitburg, Germany, from 1983 - 1986 and then again from 1989 - 1991. The video is pretty cheesy but it's very, very accurate.

From the video:
I am proud of this documentary. The story was recorded in Bitburg Germany with one of our frontline F-15 units. In its time, it was seen as very experimental. Being with the real folks. Exploring their relationships with others. Yes, it has a Cold War ring to it. But it was made in 1981, the height of the Cold War. The people we filmed were wonderfully cooperative once they trusted us. Unfortunately, I didn't keep up with what happened to them and where they are today. But I did get the chance to fly an F-15. One of the thrills of my life.
HOLY MACKEREL! At 4:39 in the video above -- it's Greg "Claw" Clasen.  I flew with him multiple times. My most memorable fight was a night refueling flight. He took me to 50,000 feet. Eerily quiet.

Technology: today's technology is absolutely incredible. If Google, Facebook (which I don't use), Apple, Amazon are spying on me, let it be. Yesterday, driving our oldest granddaughter from one regularly scheduled weekly appointment to another, I plugged in the iPhone to get directions and (with a bit of hyperbole, but not much), google maps (I don't use Apple maps) automatically loaded our next destination -- I guess "remembering" where I had been one week ago at the same time.

Let It Be, the Beatles

Echo dot/Alexa: still incredible. Our daughter, who now has a longer commute, and who got us the Echo dot for a Christmas present, has signed up for the "all-Alexa-all-the-time" package -- or whatever it's called. Works on any device, at home, in the car, out and about. I guess it's not Alexa per se but Amazon music. So, she has "Amazon-music-everywhere." I have the home Alexa music package. Whatever. 

Super what? TheNew England Patriots are an old, old team -- the quarterback is 41 years old. Going into Super What, Belichick ("Beli-what" -- can you still say that word, "chick"?), Brady, and the coaching staff sat down two weeks ago to discuss their strategy. Purloined audio transcripts, that you will only see here:
Unidentified voice A: "I'm an old man. I'm 41. I can't play a full four quarters. They'll kill me."
Unidentified voice B: [mumble -- indecipherable]
A: "It's indoors. Deflated balls won't make a difference."
B: [mumble -- indecipherable]
Unidentified voice C: "Goff -- man, how young is he -- will run all over us by the end of the first quarter ..."
B: [mumble -- indecipherable]
C: "... so, this is what we do ...."
A: "Well, whatever we do, remember, I'm an old man ..."
C: "We slow-roll the Rams. We play really, really slow in the first three quarters. Make sure we don't get behind. No touchdowns. A few missed field goal tries. Lull the Rams into thinking we're too old to be playing this game. Brady takes three snaps, short throws -- save that arm -- quick release -- no sacks -- and then punt. Three snaps, punt, three snaps, punt. Repeat."
B: [mumble -- indecipherable]
C: "Brady's, like, on the field for a total of eight minutes in the first three quarters, twenty-three snaps; a couple of nice catches by Edelman to keep the Rams in a fog..."
A: "Just eight minutes. I can do that."
C: "Then, four minutes into the fourth quarter, Brady puts together his usual spectacular touchdown drive ... four plays -- that's it. It's over. Rams will never recover."
A: "Slow roll them for three and a half quarters. I sort of just phone it in. No deflated balls; no eavesdropping on their huddles; no wiretaps in their locker room; just slow roll them for three and a half quarters. I love it."
B: [mumble -- indecipherable]
A: "It's going to be a really, really boring game."
C: "This is not about entertainment -- that's what the ads and the half-time show are for ... this is about winning number six.
B: [mumble -- indecipherable]
The market: this might be a dead-cat bounce but if it is, it has certainly gone on for quite some time. The low was Christmas Eve, 2018. Ever since, it's been on a tear. Up 20% or something like. The other day, Saturday, on one of those commercial money programs on the radio, the "experts" were telling folks how to invest. They said they were now recommending "all cash." They said that all their money was in cash. They had sold everything, expecting a big correction. So these folks, putting their story today, sold (and recommended to listeners to sell) at the absolutely low -- after Christmas Even -- and have now been in cash since, and this is what they've missed:

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Super What / Market: by the way, I haven't seen anyone bring up the "Super Bowl" indicator -- perhaps because the game was so boring. Whatever. The Patriots losing? The "Super Bowl" indicator says that the market will be down for the year. We won't know for ten more months.

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