Sunday, November 2, 2014

For The Archives -- The 2014 Crude Oil Price Slump

For the archives. These numbers/dates will be important for the following events/data points:
  • 4Q14 earnings
  • 4Q14 North Dakota Legacy Fund contributions
  • 4Q14 sales tax receipts
  • end-of-year ND Legacy Fund
The numbers/dates could be important for the following data points:
  • active rig count 1Q15
  • location of rigs in 1Q15
********************************
The Slump
Spot cash price for WTI at Cushing. Data source: EIA
  • July 30, 2014: $104
  • July 31, 2014: $98
  • August 14, 2014: $95
  • Oct 3, 2104: $90
  • Oct 22, 2014: $80
I suppose, for the 30-second sound bite, we can say the slump began October 1, 2014. Nice date. End of 3Q14/beginning of 4Q14. 

Remember: the North Dakota Bakken boom began in 2007.
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2 comments:

  1. AnonymousNovember 3, 2014 at 6:47 AM

    Doesn't look to me like looking at the chart the price trends for this year are not much different than the trends of the last few. Since 2011 much infrastructure has been built out, sweet spots identified, drilling costs are down, drillers are more efficient, production rates are up. Can't imagine to much decline in drilling unless prices continue on their downward slide. But then what do I know, I'm just a carpenter.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bruce OksolNovember 3, 2014 at 8:09 AM

      Ha, "just a carpenter." I wish I had such skills.

      I agree with comments that suggest the Bakken is in a "much better place" than it was in 2010 and 2011.

      A lot of things will happen as oil prices come down.

      I put the graph up so that three months, six months, a year from now we can look back and see when the current slump began and how it compared to past events.

      Delete

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