World War: they're not calling it that yet, but this certainly has morphed into something bigger than many expected. We have two notes today, the first from Peter Zeihan:
The Western world is beginning to entertain the conversation over the use of Western weapons targeting Russian systems within Russia. There are a handful of countries that have issued their support, but will it be enough? Countries like Sweden, Poland and France are leading the charge, Germany has recently jumped on the train, and momentum is building. The initial rationale behind preventing Ukraine from using these weapons to strike within Russia was to prevent (or try to avoid) escalation. However, the mounting support in Europe has put the pressure on the Americans to make a decision, and soon.
And then this, from Foreign Affairs, last week:
If Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ambition in invading Ukraine was to rein in NATO, it had precisely the opposite effect. In April 2023, Finland joined the alliance, more than doubling the length of NATO’s border with Russia, and in March 2024, Sweden became a member as well. As U.S. President Joe Biden has said of Putin: “He thought he’d get the Finlandization of NATO; instead, he got the NATO-ization of Finland—and Sweden.”
Does anyone recall the "Cuban missile crisis"? Not quite the same, but incredibly similar. US "short-range missiles" are now being allowed to strike Russia directly. Does anyone remember that it was another Democrat administration that allowed "limited use of arms" in Southeast Asia that turned into "Vietnam."
I'm eager to see Peter Zeihan's "take" on this.
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