For Investors Only -- September 15, 2022

NFL: I couldn't be in a better mood: Thursday Night Football tonight. Whoo-hoo! LA Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs. Spread: 4 points. My bet: Chiefs by two touchdowns. It could be worse.

• game to watch this weekend? Bengals at Dallas. Bengals by two two touchdowns, also. 

As an investor, I could not be in a better mood, either.

Note: I have a 40-year horizon. 

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All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Twelve of us attended a Schwab luncheon yesterday. 

My takeaways (these were not Schwab's; they are mine, and mine only):

1. The Fed. When the Fed begins raising rates, US equities fall, and can fall precipitously.

• historically, taking all cases, on average, when the Fed begins raising rates, it takes 15 months for the market to get back to "even";
• historically, when the Fed raises slowly and cautiously, it take nine months to recover for the market to get back to even;
• historically, when the Fed raises fast and furiously, it takes 502 days for the market to get back to even.

2. Connecting the dots, reading the tea leaves, we have 502 days to buy equities on sale. Whoo-hoo.

3. Now is the time for plant seed corn; now is the time to aggressively accumulate US equities.

4. For those who understand bonds and fixed income, they are going to make a lot of money. I'm not in that group. I don't understand bonds.

5. Cliche: it's not "timing the market," "it's time in the market."

6. I have a 40-year horizon. I started investing in 1984. 2022 - 1984 = 38 years and that is still less than my current 40-year horizon. 

Miscellaneous, current market:

1. The first or second stock I ever bought was BNI (or whatever it was at the time). When BRK acquired BNI, I started accumulating UNP. UNP remains my third largest holding (?). 

2. With regard to rails, the deal to prevent a rail strike is going to be seen as a life-altering event (LAE). The unions and the blue collars did very, very well, but management, CEOs, and investors made a killing. This is quite unbelievable what transpired for investors. 

3. A reader linked this article: EOG, Permian Resources upgraded to overweight at JP Morgan. My reply:

I recently blogged on new company Permian Resources.

Haven’t bought yet.

I started accumulating EOG some years ago. Got “top heavy” and at same time had that huge novel post on Devon and haven’t looked back. Most of my energy additions since have been Devon since.

4. I will wait to see PR's dividend philosophy before establishing a position. PR might replace MNRL in my portfolio. If not, maybe PXD or APA, although I personally don't like PXD. But more likely will sell MRNL after acquisition and buy  DVN.

5. Did you all see that APA doubled its revenue? 

We'll quit here for now. But that rail deal was incredible.

When I saw the deal, I recollected this:

Cataclysmic losses / outsized opportunities: link here.

The "rail deal" was generational. I'm thrilled.