1. Saudi Arabia will get the new F-35s. Their pilots won't be able to fly them at night, and they won't be able to re-fuel midair (a skill not needed in their case), but they will have the new fighters. They also won't be filled with all the best software. Israel gets the "real deal" or provides it themselves.
2. The politicians seem not to understand the oil issue. At this moment in time there is an excess of oil. Perhaps six months from now, or a year from now, the inventories around the world will be depleted but at this moment in time, more oil is not the answer. In the US, the refiners are operating at 94% capacity; they can't do better. Sure, the refiners will pay less for the raw product but they love the crack spread -- upwards of $50 / bbl -- and that's where the real cost comes from. Refining -- marketing -- transportation.
3. But yes, sometime down the road, there may be a relative shortage of oil, but at this moment in time, there's an excess and more oil won't affect price -- except perhaps psychologically and traders' arbitrage and panic, etc. which could lead to a flash decrease in price.
4. With regard to OPEC reserves -- I started talking about this on the blog ten years ago. Others are finally coming around: the myth of spare capacity. Saudi Arabia is not increasing production for one of two reasons: a) they don't have the capacity (for whatever reason) to produce more; or, b) they have the capacity to produce more but not the desire. When Saudi Arabia does (appear to) have short periods of increased production, it's smoke and mirrors. It's not new production; it's a release from their inventories, just as Biden's release of oil from the US SPR.
5. Whether Saudi has lack of ability (capacity) or lack of desire to produce more, it doesn't matter. It's the same outcome for the customer, the refineries.
6. Refineries: except for the teapot refineries in China, quick! Name the huge new greenfield refineries that have come on line in the past ten years. Yeah, that's about right. None. I'm sure there are some, but I can't find them. On top of that, old refineries are closing or converting. The best recent example is the huge refinery in San Francisco that just converted from crude oil to sustainable, renewable stuff. Irony: the state of California is now suing the refiner for making the conversion even though it was an environmentally-driven decision.
7. I can imagine the price of oil falling after Biden's visit, but I can't imagine it's anything other than transitory (like inflation). The three things driving the price of oil now: inflation (driving price of oil higher); the strength of the dollar (driving the price lower); and, fear of recession (driving price lower).
8. If war comes to an end in Ukraine, the price of oil will tumble. No matter the terms of the "Peace Treaty" the Europeans will immediately drop all sanctions. Even Canada returned the Nord Stream 1 turbine which had fallen under sanction rules.
Amazon: I've never lost (not received) an order from Amazon.
Last month, mid-month June, I ordered a very small accessory for my Apple laptop. It was to arrive same day, on/about June 18, 2022. It never arrived. Finally, on/about June 25, 2022, Amazon sent me a note: "We are very sorry for the delayed delivery. You may request a refund." I requested a refund and within 72 hours the refund was credited to my account.
Today, July 12, 2022, the small accessory arrived, almost a month late. Looking at the pasted-over mailing labels, one can determine what happened. The original mailing label said it was shipped June 18, 2022 (same day delivery) but was never delivered. Somewhere along the line the small accessory was handed over to UPS for delivery -- perhaps from the very beginning.
I have "never" lost a delivery from Amazon. This was a lost delivery involving UPS. My hunch: Amazon handed off the delivery to UPS and UPS was simply slow in their delivery process -- this often happens when an item is handed over from one shipper to another. And then UPS lost track of it.
FedEx in Portland, OR, is atrocious with regard to timeliness and reliability
USPS seems to never lose anything.
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