Over on twitter, this essay is getting a lot of attention. It is not behind a paywall. It links to a New York Times article which I cannot access (paywall) and to a Wall Street Journal op-ed that I can access (paywall).
Doomberg is excellent. I've been following it for some time. Unfortunately it goes behind a paywall soon. I like Doomberg but won't be subscribing.
I digress. Back to the current essay, "On The Cusp of an Economic Singularity."
I've read the essay several times. I do not understand the article except that it lives up to the name of the writer: "Doomberg."
The writer skips all over: from agriculture to banking to cryptocurrency to gold to oil to whatever.
At the end of the day, I'm not sure what the takeaway was except that with regard to the global economic system, we don't know what's coming next. Okay. But it's all doom.
It almost reads as if it were written by a gold bug or gold bugs.
The WSJ op-ed linked could definitely have been written by a gold bug but it lost all credibility with this one sentence:
If currency balances were to become worthless computer entries and didn’t guarantee buying essential stuff, Moscow would be rational to stop accumulating them and stockpile physical wealth in oil barrels, rather than sell them to the West. At the very least, more of Russia’s money will likely shift into gold and Chinese assets.
However, both The WSJ op-ed and the Doomberg essay does take me back to the graph at this link. One has to ask the question: with Saudi maxing out its exports at highest prices in recent memories why are Saudi Arabia's foreign exchange reserves falling? Is there something else going on? Is Saudi Arabia stockpiling gold in lieu of foreign exchange assets? Did Russia let Saudi Arabia know some months ago that a significant geopolitical event might behoove Saudi Arabia to start exchanging dollars for gold. I have not idea, but it doesn't bring up another point.
An incursion as big and as coordinated as the Russian incursion in to Ukraine was not a last minute decision. The planning, of course, would have been going on for years, but serious planning would have had to begun at least six months ago. Secrets are hard to keep, and it's hard to believe that the plus in OPEC+ was not talking to MBS about Russia's plans.
I have no idea. Lots to think about.
By the way, The New York Times article that I cannot access: "Justice Department Announces Task Force To Go After Russian Oligarchs." The formal name of the task force: Task Force KleptoCapture. Here is the US government's announcement from March 3, 2022, three days ago.
Today, Attorney General Merrick B. Garland announced the launch of Task Force KleptoCapture, an interagency law enforcement task force dedicated to enforcing the sweeping sanctions, export restrictions, and economic countermeasures that the United States has imposed, along with allies and partners, in response to Russia’s unprovoked military invasion of Ukraine. Task Force KleptoCapture will ensure the full effect of these actions, which have been designed to isolate Russia from global markets and impose serious costs for this unjustified act of war, by targeting the crimes of Russian officials, government-aligned elites, and those who aid or conceal their unlawful conduct.
“The Justice Department will use all of its authorities to seize the assets of individuals and entities who violate these sanctions,” said Attorney General Merrick B. Garland. “We will leave no stone unturned in our efforts to investigate, arrest, and prosecute those whose criminal acts enable the Russian government to continue this unjust war. Let me be clear: if you violate our laws, we will hold you accountable.”
“To those bolstering the Russian regime through corruption and sanctions evasion: we will deprive you of safe haven and hold you accountable,” said Deputy Attorney General Lisa O. Monaco. “Oligarchs be warned: we will use every tool to freeze and seize your criminal proceeds.”
On a final note, doesn't "KleptoCapture" seem very juvenile?
No comments:
Post a Comment