Commentary: Top Stories, Week 3: January 16, 2022 -- January 22, 2022

Top stories for week 3, January 16, 2022 - January 22, 2022, have been posted.

I posted a lot of stories about all the incredible wells being reported. There were just too many to link, so I linked very few. But for only 28 active rigs in North Dakota there sure are a lot of great wells coming off the confidential list this next week.

It was interesting to post a ranking of the operators in the Bakken based on production in the month of October, 2022.

One certainly gets the feeling that last week was the cusp for several stories:

• Top stories?
• Ukraine coming to a head: it's "go" time for Putin. Now or never. It certainly looks like he's taking a page out of Schwarzenegger's playbook for "shock and awe." 
• look at the forces being assembled on the border;
• no logistical obstacles;
• 40% of Europe's natural gas comes from Russia
  
• "Everyone," it seems literally "everyone" is predicting $100-oil by the end of 2022, some by by the end of the 1H22. I thought the same, but stepping back, I don't think WTI will hit $100 oil in 2022.
• The myth of global crude oil spare capacity was the meme this past week; I agree, but that doesn't necessarily lead to $100-oil.
• There are two factions in the White House with regard to the high price of gasoline: the ideological faction that wants to see fossil fuel die. The reality faction knows that $5.00-gasoline is a non-starter come the mid-term elections. Right now, the reality faction is writing the narrative, but the ideological faction is winning the arguments. Americans have no idea what's coming.
• If what is going on at ISO NE this past week doesn't convince folks renewable energy is not the answer, nothing will. The fact there is nothing being written about all the oil New England is burning to keep the lights on tells me that renewable energy advocates will win this one on the backs of the middle class consumers.
• But with the high cost of energy on east and west coasts, Intel made the decision to build the world's largest chip factory in .... Ohio. Say what?
• So, what else was on the cusp this past week?
• The price of gasoline.
• Gasoline will hit a record high come Memorial Day but for all practical purposes we're near the top, for gasoline prices. Anyone that looks at the EIA "gasoline demand" chart will agree. But this has nothing to do with Cathie Wood's EV argument -- about as dumb as they come -- but everything to do with gasoline demand and gasoline destruction.
• The cusp?
• The US equity markets. It might last for another week or so, but the market is near its bottom and it's only a matter of time before it turns. But it's going to be a new market. Crypto collapsed and it won't get better. Tech collapsed but the good tech companies will come roaring back. The not-so-good tech companies will ... well, it doesn't look good. Peloton collapsed and Peloton won't be coming back any time soon. Peloton had nothing to do with exercise; it was all about tech and putting an iPad on an exercise bike, and making money on streaming. The problem? Everyone was doing that. Streaming. Netflix learned the hard way. Netflix may have seen it coming but investors certainly missed it. 
• Jay Powell: even one rate hike runs the risk of lots of talk about a recession.
• Warren Buffett: be greedy when others are fearful; be fearful when others are greedy.  
  
• So, bottom line:
• international: it's "go-time" for Putin.
• national: economy on the cusp.
• North Dakota: twenty years from now, they will say "we under-estimated the Bakken.

From social media: