Thursday, December 9, 2021

This Is Not Atypical -- The Bakken Wells Fracked / Completed In 2020 Are Incredible Wells -- December 9, 2021

The well:

  • 37328, drl/NC, WPX,  Nokota 24-13-12HQ, Squaw Creek, fracked 8/25/20 - 9/9/20; 9 million gallons water; 84.6% water by mass; 14.7% sand by mass; first production, 10/20; t--; cum 286K 10/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20213110796107981667048607484450
BAKKEN9-202130131661318717546471333668110306
BAKKEN8-20213116316162732115144250409463142
BAKKEN7-202131969396631378426286183827807
BAKKEN6-20212814226142651961440104346973740
BAKKEN5-202131182691828724270514983904710334
BAKKEN4-20213020224202132523838225359080
BAKKEN3-20213126835268693012039395363640
BAKKEN2-2021272456224508280822871325225730
BAKKEN1-20213133639335543736339324344951069
BAKKEN12-20202932025319474369737436315882270
BAKKEN11-202028404074048652075472362745615310
BAKKEN10-202016262112604231044306401751010244
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4 comments:

  1. AnonymousDecember 10, 2021 at 10:28 AM

    Can't generalize from one great well to all of 2020. Average yearly performance has been flat last few years. The big improvements happened years ago.

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  2. AnonymousDecember 10, 2021 at 10:15 PM

    Average 12month IPs for all ND horizontal wells:

    year IP12mo %of2020
    2020 185.6 100%
    2019 168.6 91%
    2018 174.4 94%
    2017 159.0 86%
    2016 126.8 68%
    2015 102.0 55%
    2014 90.4 49%
    2013 86.6 47%
    2012 78.5 42%
    2011 80.2 43%
    2010 77.7 42%
    2009 76.6 41%
    2008 68.4 37%
    2007 49.1 26%
    2006 47.8 26%
    2005 60.8 33%
    2004 71.5 39%

    The big change was from 2014 to 2017. Since then wells have improved more slowly. While 2020 wells are best generation so far, they are only about 5% better than 2018 wells, for instance. Not a dramatic difference. Nothing like the big improvements from 2014 to 2017.

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    Replies
    1. Bruce OksolDecember 11, 2021 at 9:09 AM

      1. I knew these new wells were not atypical; the Bakken wells now being drilled are simply incredible.

      2. It's important to note that "drilling stopped" in the Bakken in 2020 due to Covid. That skews the data; one would assume only the best locations were being drilled in the Bakken in 2020 suggesting that the 2020 data is skewed higher than might otherwise be expected.

      3. IPs: one year?

      4. Others may define IPs out to one year, or two year, or even five years, I suppose, but generally accepted, IPs are 24-hour; 30-day; 60-day; and 90-day.

      5. Anything after 90-day is pretty much operators managing their assets. Any doubt? Look at 2020 when everything was shut down due to Covid.

      6. The y/y comparisons that are particularly noteworthy came late during the "manufacturing phase" of the Bakken, not during the "boom":

      2014/2015
      2016/2017
      2017/2018

      7. One would assume, all things being equal, one-year production (not IPs) will decrease in 2022 if prices of oil increase significantly and more wells are drilled in Tier 2 / Tier 3 areas of the Bakken.

      8. But most important, to repeat, so that newbies are not misled: annual production is a function of asset management. You really see that in BR (and maybe even CLR) when wells are first reported, production is very, very low waiting for completion.

      9. Looking at the technology and completion strategies, I'm looking at the three months of highest production after the well is completed.

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