CAPEX Falling Short? -- Wood Mackenzie -- December 17, 2018; US Oil Production To Jump From Less Than 11 Million B/D To Over 12 Million B/D -- EIA

Don sent me the link. Thank you. I would have missed this story. I find the data points in this article absolutely fascinating.

The number of new oil and gas projects will rise five-fold next year from a 2015 trough but overall spending is still unlikely to be enough to meet future demand, consultancy Wood Mackenzie said.

Shaken by a sharp drop in oil prices in recent months, boards are generally expected to stick to spending discipline imposed following the 2014 price crash.

Global investment in oil and gas production, known as upstream, is expected to reach around $425 billion next year.

That compares with a total spending of $770 billion in 2014, which dropped to $400 billion in 2016 and 2017.

Although spending levels have slightly recovered since then, next year's capital expenditure will still fall short of the $600 billion required to meet demand growth and to offset the natural decline of output from field.

I think folks have been saying this for the past ten years -- that CAPEX would not meet future demands. I'm curious how far out Wood Mackenzie is looking. Certainly, there is no suggestion that supply won't meet demand for the next ten years?

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US shale revolution.

From the EIA today, via twitter: In December, EIA forecasted that US crude oil production will average 10.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2018 and 12.1 million b/d in 2019. http://go.usa.gov/cs5yd  #STEO

Meanwhile, December, 2018, Rystad update. This is a hard graph to see, but remove the brown (natural gas) and it certainly appears crude oil discoveries are doing relatively fine, although that's i the eye of the beholder, and I won't argue with anyone who disagrees with me. As noted, I am inappropriately exuberant about short-cycle projects, as Chevron calls them.

********************************

Pretty Funny -- Ya Gotta Love It -- Canada Keeping America Great

Faux environmentalists in Quebec love their SUVs. In the period from 1990 and to 2017 sales of SUVs, trucks and pick-ups had soared by 246 percent, and sales of gasoline had risen by a third over the period.

The report can be found here. Highlights of the report:

• Quebec’s per capita energy consumption remains high, at 193 gigajoules. This is less than the United States or the rest of Canada, but much more than Germany or Norway.
• Energy consumption in the industrial sector has declined, but the intensity of emissions per unit of energy has remained much the same. Overall, then, there has been little movement to decarbonize energy sources in this sector.
• Quebeckers’ enthusiasm for SUVs continues to grow, at the expense of smaller cars.
• Ride-sharing remains low (10%) in comparison with single drivers (68%).
• The number of vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants has been growing constantly since 1990. This applies to all Quebec regions and the proportion of light trucks is rising everywhere.
• In 2016, 54% of the energy travelling through the Quebec energy distribution system was lost and added no value to the economy.
• In 2018, nearly 94% of the petroleum used in Quebec came from western Canada and the United States, as compared with 14% in 2013.
• Approximately 57% of Énergir’s natural gas this year came from the Dawn supply hub in Ontario and 40% from the Empress hub in Alberta.