Wednesday, December 21, 2016

Update On SCOOP, STACK -- RBN Energy -- December 21, 2016

First things first: first baby bison of the season spotted at Theodor Roosevelt National Park, North Dakota, video. (See comment below regarding this video; the "baby" may be a bit older by now.)

Top 10 Stories of the Year -- AP
#10 - Hillary Clinton's e-mail issue, Comey
#9 - Supreme Court -- Scalia dies; Senate refuses to consider nominee
#8 - Syria
#7 - Democratic Party e-mail leaks
#6 - attacks on police (#BlackLivesMatter)
#5 - worldwide terror attacks (there were so many, they could not break them out; with one exception)
#4 - Pulse Nightclub massacre
#3 - blacks killed by police
#2 - Brexit
#1 - US election (so many subplots)(Democratic Party is now a regional party, not a national party -- "Morning Joe"
Border adjustment tax. I keep forgetting to post this. Germany always had the VAT; I see nothing wrong with a US-BAT.

GITMO: I'm hoping President Obama can empty GITMO before he leaves office, so that the prison can be used to house illegal immigrants charged with violent crimes waiting for their deportation hearing. 

Obama removes more of the Arctic from oil exploration: a non-story; oil glut out as far as the eyes can see; however, huge story for Alaska, I would assume.

Eyes wide shut? MSNBC "Morning Joe" suggests the EU's "open borders policy has been disastrous but then doesn't say a thing about Obama's open borders policy for the past eight years.

Did she mispeak? on a CNBC "Squawk Box" this morning, an analyst discussing US shale in light of OPEC, she said that there are indications of a trillion bbls of recoverable oil in US shale oil. I know at one time CLR suggested the Bakken could be a one-trillion bbl reservoir (with a primary recovery rate of 5% = 50 billion bbls. It was quickly dialed back to 500 billion bbls reservoir, but 50 billion recoverable bbls in the Bakken is a long way from 1 trillion bbls recoverable across US shale. Maybe not: wiki also uses the 1 trillion bbls recoverable. Peak oil? Hardly. 

Completely off my radar scope: India overtakes Britain as world's sixth largest economy. This is a huge story. Other data points:
  • India also surpassed China as the world's fastest-growing economy this past year
  • IMF says India would retain that title (fastest-growing) for the foreseeable future
  • it's GDP is predicted to increase by 7.6% through 2017
The question remains: why is India off everyone's radar scope?


Electoral College: this was a story that was not reported anywhere in the media this past election -- the changing landscape of the electoral college. The bottom line, comparing the electoral college between 2000 and 2016 (all within my lifetime):
  • the south (+16) vs elite northeast (-7) + Pacific Coast (+2) + industrial Midwest (-10)
  • = +16 for the south vs -15 for the rest of the country (forget about fly-over country) = a swing of 31 electoral votes in 2016 compared to 2000
I was reminded of that by this story: Illinois loses more residents than any other state. I'm coming back to this later, if I remember. Think Schumer. Back to Illinois, data points:
  • for third consecutive year, Illinois lost more residents than any other states
  • Illinois' population is at its lowest in nearly a decade
  • one of just eight states to lose residents; population first began to drop in 2014 (isn't that when Rahm returned to Chicago?)
  • West Virginia had greatest decline; according to this site, the list:
    • Illinois (electors dropped from 21 to 20, 2000 to 2016)
    • West Virginia
    • Connecticut (electoral votes stable at 7, from 2000 to 2016; could that change after 2020?)
    • Mississippi (went from 7 to 6 electoral votes, 2000 to 2016)
    • Maine (electoral votes already at 3)
    • Vermont (electoral votes already at 3)
    • New Mexico: an outlier; a the only sunbelt state (x MS); it's all economics; electoral votes at 5; always votes Democratic
  • polls suggest the trend will continue for Illinois; reasons cited: high taxes, state budget stalemate, crime, the unemployment rate, and the weather (global warming not coming fast enough, apparently)
  • more than any other city, Chicago depended on Mexican immigrants to balance the sluggish growth of its native-born population
  • residents moving to the Sun Belt: Texas, Arizona, and Florida
  • leading the exodus: the African-American population
  • other midwestern states also losing population, but "the pattern is on steroids for Illinois"
Back To The Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs4165182192189

RBN Energy: natural gas production trends in the SCOOP and STACK, Part 1

The SCOOP and STACK combo play in central Oklahoma recently has emerged as one of the most prolific and attractive shale production regions in the U.S. Like the Permian Basin (albeit on a much smaller scale), rig counts in this play have weathered the crude oil price decline better than most of the rest and, along with the Permian, are leading a rebound as prices move higher. These days, SCOOP/STACK producers are primarily targeting crude oil and condensates, but the area also is seeing a resurgence of natural gas output from associated gas. More than that, given its economics, location and ample infrastructure, gas supply from the region has the potential to be directly competitive with Marcellus/Utica supply. Today, we begin a series analyzing production trends in the SCOOP/STACK, with a focus on natural gas.

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