One can see where this (the ATT/T-Mobile deal) is going.
Both ATT and VZ are up in the stock market. VZ hit a 52-week high today and ATT came within 2 cents of a 52-week high.
During the process, T-Mobile goes into a holding pattern. Both ATT and VZ should benefit during the process.
If the deal does not go through, T-Mobile becomes a niche player, and gradually disappears from the radar scope altogether. Both ATT and VZ win. They will split up the T-Mobile subscribers over time.
If the deal goes through, that allows VZ an opportunity to buy another telecom.
This is not an investment site. I just enjoy following the market, and I have interests outside the Bakken. Smile.
To pass anti trust, t mobile will be required to spin it's services in some (smaller, rural) service areas where a monopoly would result from the merge. Att has already factored this into the equation.
ReplyDeleteThe deal will fly with some minor govt imposed conditions.
The action going forward is what does sprint do?
Sprint has three possible strategies .
Stay as they are.
Merge with Verizon.
Buy up smaller players like leap and metro pcs.
Sprint has a major problem in that it's 4g radio link (wimax) is incompatible with verizons 4g network (lte) thereby complicating a verizon sprint merger.
I am very fond of Sprint. My cell phone plan has always been Sprint (exception: ATT for iPad).
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, I think Sprint runs the risk of being a niche player, also, if it isn't already.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out, but I know I'm going to be bored to death hearing every twist and turn of this saga.
Thank you for taking time to comment.
Sprint 5 year chart is not a pretty picture. The only thing I can think of to improve this would be a Verizon merger. I dont know how much unused spectrum sprint has but that could be their path to a merger. Plus their subs.
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I agree completely (the 5-year chart is not a pretty picture). A lot of ink (real and virtual) will be used over the next few years talking about Sprint. Something tells me my next telecom plan won't be Sprint. Sad. Sprint has always been very responsive over the years.
ReplyDeleteThe sprint network is very well engineered and whatever happens on the business side, the network will continue on maybe under a different logo (Verizon ?). I'm not bullish on the stock at current price but if it is beaten down as a result of att/t mobile merger and/or other factors it could be a bargain if (as I expect) a sprint/vzw happens after the dust settles on the att/t mobile deal.
ReplyDeleteThere are other places to make money besides oil. Plus diversification is a good thing one of my former brokers told me
I would love to call Jim Cramer and ask him whether this diversified portfolio:
ReplyDeleteBank of America -- General Motors -- TEPCO (Japan nuclear) -- Portuguese bonds -- Sprint
is better than this non-diversified portfolio:
NOG -- CLR -- XOM -- SLB -- CVX?
Said "tongue-in-cheek."
Well an investor could short portfolio number 1. Although in my view, bac, gm and s are long term winners. The others, i dont know. We do know that the govt wont allow a business with the name bank of america to fail.
ReplyDeleteWe also know that certain stocks, sectors or the equity market as a whole can and does get overvalued /overpriced.
I'm a long term investor (redundant?) but not that long. Smile.
ReplyDeleteWell yes. Anytime an investor takes a position, there should be a sell strategy somewhere down the line. And, long term is in the eye of the beholder. I dont see that Bac, gm or s are going to pop any time soon. 2-4 year window but lots of risk present .
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