Nothing New -- Hearing This For Past Year -- Global Crude Oil Supplies Will Tighten

Link here.

The US Energy Information Administration anticipates that global crude oil markets will tighten over the next 2 years as annual consumption grows by an average 1.5 million b/d and growth in supplies outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increases less than 100,000 b/d yearly, EIA said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook. 

To summarize:

• Consumption grows by 1.5 million bopd
• Supplies grow by less than 100,000 bopd
• OPEC needs to increase production by 1.4 million bopd

EIA expects the market will rely on both inventories and significant increases in production of crude oil and non-crude liquids in OPEC member countries to meet world demand growth.

OPEC produces about 28 million bopd (has varied from 24 to 28 million bopd over the past few years)

Two comments: 

• Inventories: okay; that's not more oil, folks, just what's already there.
• Production increases: there are folks who argue that OPEC has maxed out production 

Two more comments:

• Any "significant increase" in OPEC production will be offset by moratoria in US drilling (unless something significant changes within the Department of Interior; I'm not holding my breath)
• OPEC can increase production at the wellhead, but the infrastructure is not there to deliver oil to the US

Last comment:

• Most folks think I'm nuts with regard to previous comment. That's fine. If I have time, I will try to find a link to support my view. 
• This is not the link I was looking for, but it will do for now. And it's very current: December 20, 2010.
• This author says worldwide oil production will hit a ceiling at 74 million bopd, the record set back in 2008, and which we closing in on once again