Flashback!

This was taken from a report in 1996:

Billings and McKenzie counties were the dominant counties for horizontal drilling.

Through mid-1995, horizontal wells produced about 11 million barrels of oil (the first horizontal wells were completed in 1987).

As early as 1991, production began to fall, due to sharp production declines seen in horizontal/fracked wells.

The average initial production for a typical horizontal well in North Dakota was 4,300 bbls/month.

The average horizontal well's estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of 97,000 bbl was less than the average vertical well of 104,000 bbl (projected).

The report concludes that "poor overall economics have slowed the use of horizontal drilling in the Bakken Shale of North Dakota."

This report was developed and published in 1996 by Gary S. Swindell and Associates. 

So, where are we now? The predominant county for horizontal drilling is Mountrail County, but McKenzie, Williams, and Dunn are all very, very active.

EURs in the Parshall oil field are estimated to be 700,000 bbls, and with dual laterals, CLR suggests an additional 400,000 bbls over the lifetime of the well could be recovered -- a far cry from 100,000 bbls EUR noted in 1996. Then: 4,300 bbls/month. Today: some wells are producing that much oil in less than a week.

The report above stated that "through mid-1995, horizontal wells have produced 11,336,000 barrels." That's cumulative: 11 million barrels cumulative from 1987 through 1995 (eight years). North Dakota is now producing in excess of 250,000 bopd, which is more than 91 million barrels/year. Projections are that ND will soon reach 400,000 bopd or almost 150 million barrels/year by sometime next year. I think it will be sooner than later.

[But it is not all "roses." There is some concerning data about horizontal wells and fracturing -- the decline rates, and the longevity of the wells. It seems the "science" paints a less optimistic picture than what the proponents of horizontal drilling and fracturing are telling us. Click here for an interesting technical study -- that isn't all that old. It raises some questions and puts a damper on my irrational exuberance.]