Monday, November 23, 2020

Chinese Flu -- Second Wave -- Huge Numbers, Deaths Not Maintaining Pace --November 23, 2020

Updates

Later, 7:55 p.m. See first comment. I am wrong. Deaths are maintaining pace, and will likely continue to be a challenge. I was simply eyeballing the graphs and not doing the math. A big thanks to the reader.

Original Post

For the US, North Dakota's ranking for deaths/capita remains unchanged at #8. South Dakota has jumped from #23 to #11 over the past week or so. Link here. Note: ND has now exceeded 10% penetration -- great for herd immunity. One wonders if 33% penetration is adequate for herd immunity for this virus? South Dakota's penetration: 8.3%. Getting there. 

Worldwide, the second wave is so much worse than the first. But deaths lagging. Link here. These graphics are for Sweden but these are pretty much what the rest of the world looks like right now. If we're moving toward herd immunity, Regeneron therapy, and vaccine availability, could we be seeing light at the end of the proverbial tunnel?


4 comments:

  1. same site as you cite: the week over week 7 day moving average of new US cases fell to 18% on Saturday, from a 45% WoW increase a week earlier...the death rate's 7 day moving average increase rose from 15% to 32% over the same period...historically, it's taken deaths about 3 weeks to catch up...

    the death rate as a percentage of cases was over 5% early in the first wave, and that's fallen to around 1% now..

    Johns Hopkins reported global covid deaths over 11,000 daily for 4 straight days last week...that pace would make covid-19 the third leading cause of death worldwide, following heart disease and stroke...

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    Replies
    1. Thank you, much appreciated. So, deaths are keeping pace. My mistake. I was just eyeballing the graphs, not doing the math.

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    2. under the graphs, there's a toggle switch for the 7 day moving average, with the numbers displaying as you hover over the graph...that makes the math easy..

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    3. Thank you. I'm impressed how good that Johns Hopkins site is. A lot of information there.

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