The first Saudi surge, 2014 - 2016:
- number of active rigs in the Bakken plummeted from "200" to "50"
- the number of active rigs in the Bakken never recovered; in fact after plummeting to "50" rigs, the number of active rigs fell another 50% to 25 active rigs, before "recovering" back to "50"
- production during this period? actually increased slightly initially, and then surged when price recovered;
- time period: about two years;
- number of active rigs in the Bakken plummeted to record lows, hitting an all-time low of ten active rigs in North Dakota;
- the first phase, the Saudi surge, has pretty much played itself out (July, 2020);
- lasted less than six months;
- the second phase, demand-destruction brought on by Dr Faustus and Wuhan flu, is yet to play out
- production per well surged during the second Saudi surge; see this post for more;
- first Saudi surge:
- the number of active rigs in the Bakken becomes even less significant in the overall picture of the Bakken
- second Saudi surge:
- it's possible the price of oil will "never" recover; Bakken operators will thrive on $60-oil; Saudi will either learn to live on $60-oil or will implode;
- global economy will thrive on $60-oil
- US shale operators will become even more efficient
- North Dakota will "learn to live" on 850,000 bopd production, and like it;
- $10 million / month into the Legacy Fund is just fine
- it's time for ND legislators to get serious about "growing" the Legacy Fund (of course that won't happen -- just saying it's time for them to get serious about it)
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