Thursday, June 25, 2020

Three Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- June 25, 2020

GDP, 3rd estimate 1Q20, link here: 
  • prior: -5.0%
  • consensus: -5.0%
  • actual: -5.0%
Jobless claims, link here:
  • prior: 1.508 million
  • revised: 1.540 million
  • consensus: 1.380 million
  • actual: 1.480 million
  • US Senate confirms Trump's 200th judge; officially fills all appeals court vacancies; see this note also.
  • NYC could cut upwards of 22,000 city jobs
NASCAR: lots of history with Bubba. It didn't matter until it did.

Price war: significant price cut for K-cups.
One needs to watch the unit cost; some boxes contain 120 K-cups; others contain 100 cups. Regardless, a box regularly sells for about $36 at Costco. Yesterday I noted that an "off-brand" was offering $6 rebate taken at the register, resulting in $29.99 for 100 cups. Dunkin' and Peet also offering similar $6-off coupon. Today, I see Costco is selling Starbucks Dark Roast with a $7-off coupon at the register for 72 cups. On another note, Dove bar soap has also announced a significant price drop. By the way, it appears the price cut war may be directed against Amazon; don't know, but it sure looks like it.
Apple at Costco: many of the Apple iPad models are sold out. That's been a common theme at Costco this year.

Guns: this has not been double-checked; from another source, unlinked. FBI background checks for would-be gun buyers, seen as a proxy for firearm sales:
  • 2019, year: monthly average -- 2.4 million background checks/month -- a record at hte time
  • 2020:
    • May: 3.1 million
    • April: 2.9 million
    • March: 3.7 million -- an all-time record; coincided with nationwide lockdown
  • estimate: 300 million guns privately owned; a third of the population owns guns
  • ratio of handguns to long-guns sold: 1.94, April, 2020; an all-time new record; 
    • previous high was 1.84 the previous month, March, 2020
Moldy:Chuck E. Cheese files for bankruptcy.

Tesla: Looks like the move is on to AOC the Tesla move to Texas. Link here.
My hunch: if Austin doesn't want Tesla, Plano, Dallas, Grapevine, Roanoke, will welcome Tesla with open arms. Huge Tesla dealer in Southlake. Lots of support here for Tesla. And Lamborghini for that matter, also.
Gasoline demand, link here:

OPEC basket: $38.17, link here.  Wow, this is not good news for Saudi Arabia.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1062655830

Three wells coming off the confidential list today -- Thursday, June 25, 2020: 61 for the month; 206 for the quarter, 433 for the year:
  • 37052, drl/drl, CLR, Simmental Federal 5-16H2, Elm Tree,
  • 36873, drl/drl, Equinor, Jack Cvancara 19-18 XW 1H, Alger,
  • 36791, drl/drl, Sinclair, Harris Federal 4-32H, Lone Butte,
RBN Energy: Tallgrass's Cheyenne Connector, REX Cheyenne hub gas projects begin service.
Tallgrass Energy and DCP Midstream’s Cheyenne Connector pipeline and the REX Cheyenne Hub Enhancement projects are set to begin operations tomorrow, June 26, after receiving FERC approval yesterday. The natural gas projects will add takeaway capacity out of the Denver-Julesburg and Powder River production basins. For Tallgrass, the incremental capacity has the potential to increase utilization of its Rockies Express Pipeline (REX), which has struggled to fully recontract its mainline capacity after a slew of long-term contracts expired last year. For gas producers, the new capacity and hub upgrades mean an alternative route out of the core DJ with farther-reaching destination options for gas flows, including access to REX and its growing direct-connect load and numerous third-party interconnects in the Midcontinent/Midwest. About 600 MMcf/d in firm contracts will kick in for each project with the start of service, but given that Niobrara gas production is down and there’s likely no new production waiting behind the capacity, gas flows on the two projects may come down to economics. In today’s blog, we provide an update on the projects in the context of today’s uncertain market.


  1. This is the chart we are looking for. We should lose some demand to people working at home but should gain some demand from stimulus and latent demand. Wonder if it will settle above or below last years trend.

    1. Yes, I was pleasantly surprised. Based on previous week's data I expected it to look better.

  2. Moldy Chuck E. Cheese.........very funny!