Thursday, October 26, 2017

The Political Page With A Bit Of Energy News, T+278 -- October 26, 2017

Vision 2030: looking a lot less clear. From the beginning, I've had my doubts about Prince Salman's "Vision 2030." See "The Salman Plan" linked at the sidebar at the right, under the "On-Going Section." Financial Times writes about current status of Prince Salman's plan. If behind a paywall, google u-turn to revive quotas is not working and fails to address changing future of oil ft. Data points:
  • Saudi Arabia has moved into recession
  • unemployment continues to rise
  • the war in Yemen and the dispute with Qatar appear in stalemate
  • vexed issue of King Salman's ill health; the question of who succeeds him (I thought that was settled; oh-oh)
  • the article recounts Prince Salman's "trillion dollar mistake"
  • but note this: in December, 2014, the number of drilling rigs had peaked at 353; by May, 2016, the figure had collapsed to just 116; now, the rig count has trebled and is close to a new peak, at 336
  • even worse: oil production per Permian rig has continued to rise from December, 2014's, level of 219 b/d; volume has nearly trebled to 572 b/d while the number of DUCs has almost doubled from 1,204 to 2,330
  • Saudi Arabia has taken most of the OPEC's total cuts
  • Saudi Arabia forcast "re-balancing" would by achieved by March, 2018; now it might take until December, 2018, and require even further cuts
  • much, much more at the link; too bad the writer did not show the monthly drop in Saudi's foreign reserves

  • increased less than expected
  • initial claims increased 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 233,000; forecast for 235,000
  • previous week, claims fell to 223,000, the lowest level since March, 1973
  • 138th straight week that claims remained below the 300,000 threshold -- which is associated with a strong labor market; longest stretch since 1970 when the labor market was smaller
  • jobless rate at more than a 16 1/2 year low of 4.2 percent
  • moving average: fell 9,000 to 239,500
It's noteworthy that since Donald Trump, who campaigned on "jobs, jobs, jobs" has become president, the weekly jobs report is hardly noted by mainstream media unless there's been a huge change.

Speaking of Challenges

NFL-free Thursdays? Networks want to cancel "Thursday Night Football." No link. Story everywhere, easily found. First reports from Breitbart and CBS.

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