Friday, November 14, 2014

New All-Time North Dakota Oil Production Record -- November 14, 2014; Natural Gas Capture On Reservation Much Improved; Operators Slowing Completions To Meet Flaring Standards; Two Prairie Butterfly Species Added To Endangered List; The Red Queen Is Running Faster And Faster

Link to PDF here.

I often make typographical and factual errors; if this information is important to you, go to the source, generally the NDIC.

Link here.

Only 5% of North Dakota oil is coming from legacy conventional pools.

A 4.6% increase month-over-month (the daily bopd). I wouldn't be surprised if this is the last month in which we see month-over-month increases; if not this month, maybe one more month with a production record, and then after that, starting with the November, 2014, data, the production may start to drop (polar vortex in November, flaring rules, crude oil stabilization rules, slump in oil prices, new tribal chief, and I'm sure something else will pop up between then and now). We will see the November, 2014, data on/about February 15, 2015.

Disclaimer: this update is always done in haste; typographical errors are likely. This is for my use only. Others should go to the source

  • September, 2014: 1,184,635 (preliminary; new all-time high)
  • August, 2014: 1,132,241 bopd (revised)
  • August, 2014: 1,132,331 bopd (preliminary; was a production record)
  • delta: 52,394 (daily bopd)
  • 17,910 / 1,114,421 = 4.6%
Producing wells: 
  • September, 2014: 11,741 (new all-time high)
  • August, 2014: 11,565 (revised, was a new all-time high)
  • July, 2014: 11,293
  • June, 2014: 11,079  
  • October, 2014: 328
  • September, 2014: 261
  • August, 2014: 273
  • July, 2014: 265
  • June, 2014: 247
  • All-time high was 370 in 10/2012
  • Today, 2014: $58.75
  • October, 2014: $68.94
  • Sept, 2014: $74.50
  • August, 2014: $78.46
  • July, 2014: $86.20
Rig count:
  • Today: 186 (all time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)
  • October, 2014: 191
  • Sept, 2014: 195
  • August, 2014: 193
  • July, 2014:  192
  • June, 2014: 190
Director's comments:
  • statewide rig count is down 15% from high; decreases in five most active counties (greatest to least): Divide, Dunn, Mountrail, Williams, McKenzie
  • well completions decreased from 272 in August to 176 in September; primary cause -- focus on flaring reduction
  • several operators have reported postponing completion work to achieve NDIC gas capture goals
  • drillers and completion crews pretty much kept pace in September; about 610 wells waiting to be completed; an increase of 10
  • rig count in the Williston Basin is no longer increasing
  • US natural gas storage:  7% below five-year average
  • percentage of natural gas flared in North Dakota:  24% (down 2% from last month)
  • Tioga gas plant remained below 65% of full capacity due to delayed expansion of gas gathering from south of Lake Sakakawea
  • NDIC now breaks down location of captured gas: statewide (726% -- up 4%); statewide Bakken (76% -- up 3.5%); non-FBIR Bakken (77.3% -- up 2.9%); FBIR Bakken (71.3% -- up  6.8%)
The USFWS has made a decision to list the Dakota Skipper and Poweshiek Skipperling to receive protection under the Endangered Species Act. Additional potential listing of concern are the Rufa Red Knot, Sprague’s Pipit, Greater Sage Grouse, Monarch Butterfly, Sturgeon Chub, and Sicklefin Chub. Link here (this may be a dynamic site).

Incidentally, it looks like the Red Queen is running faster and faster:

Back in 2011, four years into the Bakken boom, the average well in North Dakota was producing less than 70 bbls of oil per day. The most recent figures suggest the number of bopd is solidly above 100 bopd.

That looks like a 43% increase in the amount of oil being produced per well per day in North Dakota.

One can find the chart at the NDIC general statistics page, and then click on "historical monthly oil production statistics," about four or five down. While there, you may want to click on the "historical monthly Bakken oil production statistics," which is even more incredible.

The Red Queen is running faster and faster, it appears.

100 - 70 = 30
30/70 = 43%.

No comments:

Post a Comment