Friday, June 26, 2020

New Argus Quotes. Natural Gas Records. Where Are All Those Peak Oil Stories? Looking Bleak For Saudi Arabia. New Oil Man On Campus? -- June 26, 2020

First things first: kudos to the reader who pointed out that a hedge fund, Apollo, has been involved with GNC since 2008. See comments at this link. That was also pointed out in the comments at this article over at Yahoo!Finance, the harsh reasons behind GNC's adn JC Penney's death (sic).

What (who) sells basketball shoes? The NBA. Just now: Nike reports a "billion-dollar" plunge in sales for 4Q19. Not quite a billion dollars but rounding. Actual number being reported: $790 million. Yeah, it's all about the NBA.

Quick! Who's the major advertiser for the MLB? For the NFL?

ZeroHedge: I've finally added ZeroHedge to my twitter scroll. How did I ever miss this one?

Herd immunity: we're not even close.

China and oil: record Saudi imports -- Saudi oil imports surge in May to an all-time high. Being reported by Reuters. Link here.

Europe and Urals: Urals, heavy and sour, trades in northwestern Europe at a premium of about $2.35 per barrel against Brent, highest since September, 1994. This has been the story for quite some time now; not getting much analysis; this might help:
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

The market, futures, before economic numbers posted for Friday: should be an interesting day. Dow down slightly in pre-market trading and yet individual stocks of interest appear to be telling a different story:
  • AAPL: up in pre-market trading
  • the four airlines (UAL, DAL, LUV, and AAL): all up in pre-market trading
The market, futures, after economic numbers posted for Friday: should be an interesting day. Dow down a bit more in pre-market trading and yet individual stocks of interest appear to be telling a different story:
  • AAPL: changes direction; drops slightly;
  • the four airlines (UAL, DAL, LUV, and AAL): all up in pre-market trading, but may be not quite as much
  • OXY: it was up; now down about a percent
Oil story of the day: OXY and Warren Buffett. He's getting paid in OXY stock, not cash. Big deal. Story here; be sure to read comments. I think it's hard to say how Buffett will make out on this deal but the consensus among those commenting is that he will do quite well. In pre-market trading, OXY is up about half a percent.

OPEC basket, link here: wow, the trend is not looking good. Prince MbS is in deep doo-doo. For second day in a row OPEC basket slumps. Now trading at $37.18. This is going so badly for Saudi.

New oil quotes: "the Argus quote" will now add seven Gulf of Mexico locations:
  • Magellan Midstream Partners' East Houston terminal
  • EPD: three terminals
  • Houston: waterborne
  • Seabrook: waterborne
  • Texas City: wateroborne
And with that, a cup of Louisiana coffee. Off the net for a few minutes (6:52 a.m. to 7:15 a.m.)

I'm back (and it's only 7:02 a.m.) -- I'd still be waiting in line at Starbucks, LOL --
  • 425-gm can
    • rounded tablespoon: maybe 15 grams of coffee
    • 425/15 = 28 servings
    • based on what I just took out, I'm going to get a lot more than 28 servings out of this can but for argument's sake, let's say it will be 30 servings
    • $8.50 (includes tax) / 30 servings = 38 cents/serving
  • a K-cup, high end-Starbucks, on sale, Costco: $30/72 = 40 cents
  • a K-cup, low end, off brand, on sale, Costco: $30/120 = 25 cents
  • Starbucks: $3.00 (varies); refills: 50 cents;
  • McDonald's senior cup: 69 cents (varies); refills free
 Poor lighting: I will post a better photo later.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1062645930

Two wells coming off the confidential list today -- Friday, June 26, 2020: 63 for the month; 208 for the quarter, 435 for the year:
  • 37051, drl/drl, CLR, Simmental Federal 6-16H, Elm Tree,
  • 26415, drl/drl, Bruin, Wm Polar 157-101-25A-36-2B, -- look how old this permit is; Otter;
RBN Energy: natural gas futures plunge to record June lows; why now? Before reading the article, my observations:
  • the fill rate yesterday despite rig count plunging over the past couple of years; rig count in North Dakota is trending toward ... drum roll ... zero;
  • a/c use in US not accelerating; by the way, all those high-rise buildings in NYC with employers all working from home -- I doubt a/c is at normal demand ...
  • V-shape recovery in doubt
So, now back to RBN Energy:
The CME/NYMEX Henry Hub prompt contract settled at $1.482/MMBtu yesterday, down 11.5 cents (7%) from the previous day and the lowest settle that the market has ever seen during June trading. That’s also a 33-cent (18%) drop from just two weeks ago when prompt futures were around $1.80/MMBtu. The immediate rationale is the larger-than-expected and larger-than-normal storage build reported by the Energy Information Administration yesterday. But current price levels are also indicative of bigger problems looming for the gas market, namely that while gas production is down, total demand, including exports, has been exceptionally weak too. As a result, by mid-July, the storage inventory appears likely to reach record highs for that time of year — record highs that may well persist through the end of injection season in early November unless there is a substantial correction in the gas supply-demand balance. Moreover, it’s looking less and less likely that relief will come from the demand side. Today, we look at the drivers behind the latest gas market meltdown and implications for the balance of injection season.
So, why did prices fall through the floor now?
The short answer: time. In May and June, the market was still holding on to prospects of hot weather and the resulting gas demand for power generation to help offset, at least in part, the massive export demand losses. And as recently as last week, near-term forecasts for late June and early July were calling for well above-normal temperatures. Two weeks on, and with those hotter-than-normal weather forecasts moderating as the days tick by, those hopes are evaporating, and the market is running out of time to reverse the march of storage toward an all-time high by the end of injection season.
The 120-Bcf injection for the week ending June 19 was the highest we’ve seen for any week in June since 2010, and it brings the U.S. working gas inventory as of last week to 3,012 Bcf. That increases the surplus vs. last year to 710 Bcf (from 690 Bcf in the previous week) — the first weekly uptick in that surplus since early May.
It also increases the surplus to the five-year average to 452 Bcf (from about 400 Bcf in the weeks prior). Moreover, our storage model suggests the inventory is headed toward the five-year high by mid-July.
If we then take the five-year average net injection rate from mid-July through the first week of November and carry the inventory forward, we would reach a peak inventory of 4,234 Bcf. That would not only be a record high — the highest we’ve reached is 4,047 Bcf in November 2016 — but also would come perilously close to what EIA calls the “demonstrated peak working gas capacity,” or the sum of the largest volumes reported at individual fields (4,261 Bcf as of EIA’s November 2019 estimates).


  1. Cafe du Monde coffee can? With the chickory in it? Took a month at about 3 cups per day. So rich I found I only needed a third of the grounds the can called for! So about 5 cents per serving for me ;-)

    1. Amazing! It's a small, small world. I just posted a photo of the coffee following your note, and you are so correct. The can calls for a "heaping tablespoon." That's for folks in Louisiana. For folks in Texas, a "heaping teaspoon" should suffice. LOL.

  2. Now if we could just get a can of them fresh beignets... holy moly I love New Orleans....

    1. That is so funny. I took my granddaughter back to the same store today -- actually she drove me for the driver's ed training -- she saw the coffee and said the same thing: beignets. Although I did not know how to spell them (until now) and not sure what she was saying (masks were required and one of my ears is still plugged from swimming) -- she says she first had beignets in Quebec a couple of years ago and then in New Orleans last year. She said the same thing; loved them.

  3. Man i have not drank any Chickery coffe for 2 decades , we were in the south yrs and yrs ago..that stuff put on a bite.. don

    1. Well, after two cups -- yesterday and today, I'm hooked. But it is definitely coffee!