Wednesday, April 26, 2017

The Energy And Market Page, T+95 -- April 26, 2017

Ivanka wins: Energy Secretary says US should "renegotiate" the Paris Accord -- will recommend to the president that US push the European nations to take on a larger share of emissions reductions. Perry is not the sharpest knife in the drawer.

GDP watch: President Trump tweets 1Q17 GDP at 1.6%. Interestingly, the government won't release that number until 8:30 a.m. two days from now

Will they or won't they: increase its dividend? We're all watching ExxonMobil today. [Update: XOM raised its dividend from 75 cents/quarter to 77 cents/quarter; shares fall in price; some had expected an increase in the dividend to 78 cents/quarter -- it is amazing any dividend at all, but "they" needed to protect share price; a 2-cent raise matches last year's raise, which was the lowest ever, or at least in recent memory.]

Trump rally continues: third day in a row the market rallies. Today, there were 229 253 issues on the NYSE that hit new 52-week highs; only 6 issues hitting new lows.

Boom: Fiat Chrysler profit jumps 34%.

Distillate export boom: keeping US refineries busy, at Reuters. Data points:
  • offsets warm-winter in the US
  • distillate fuel exports rose to a record 1.4 million bbls per day in most recent week's data
  • averaging 1.1 million bpd 
  • distillates: home heating fuel, diesel fuel
Ouch: oil service costs could rise 15% this year -- Wood Mackenzie. Data points:
  • oil field service costs could jump 15% this year over
  • price for some equipment and services could possibly rise as much as 40%
  • unlikely to charge the same prices they got in 2014, before oil prices collapsed
  • in other words: services and equipment costs will follow the price of oil
Vaca Muerta. More "muerta" than "vaca." Bloomberg. Data points:
  • one of the largest shale formations outside of North America
  • Argentina says "lightning fast" growth likely
  • analysts disagrees: Vaca Muerta lacks infrastructure
  • drilling costs run 30% + higher than in the US
Reality: Bloomberg says oil will fall below $40 if OPEC cuts are not extended. My hunch: Goldman Sachs will say the same thing. And almost everyone else.

Unsung Gulf of Mexico tracks new crude oil production record, Rigzone. Previously posted by RBN Energy and linked earlier. Pretty cool for RBN Energy.
Far from the $40,000 per acre land rush for shale in the Permian Basin, operators in the Gulf of Mexico are toiling offshore to outpace their own production records.
In January, Gulf of Mexico (GOM) production totaled 1.75 million barrels per day, less than a percentage point away from the previous record set in 2009, according to Housley Carr, an analyst at RBN Energy LLC. Within the next month or so, the 2009 record is expected to fall.
By 2018, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects a total of 1.9 million barrels per day in 2018, Carr noted in an April 24 report.
“Admittedly, that’s an increase of only [300,000 barrels per day] from 2016, which might not be groundbreaking news, but it sure puts the kibosh on any suggestion that production off the coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama is dead in the water,” he said. “It’s not – by a long shot.”
Bust. US Steel down almost 20% in two days, I think. I don't follow but happen to see this on CNBC.

No comments:

Post a Comment