Answer: 60%.
What would happen -- or what would the tea leaves tell you -- if EV sales in China start to fall.
Operative word: "if."
Well, it's no longer "if."
From the instituteforenergyresearch:
Sales of electric vehicles in China are slowing; year-over-year, EV sales dropped 5% in July, 2019, and dropped 11% in August, 2019 -- and this is in a centrally-managed economy with goals to cut coal usage.I was unaware of that. That's huge. It's huge that EV sales in China last year totaled 1.3 million vehicles, or 60% of the global market. But then this: not only did EV sales fall in China, but sales fell for the first time decades last year, declining 3 percent, before falling eleven percent (11%) in the first eight months of 2019. The analysts then blame:
- China's slowing economy;
- China's trade war with the US;
- reduction in government subsidies
- removal of sales restrictions on traditional cars.
- removal of sales restrictions on traditional cars (yeah, the Chinese are like Americans: they like muscle cars; they can't find charging stations)
- reduction in government subsidies (same phenomenon we've seen in every country, including Norway)
- China's trade with with the US
- China's slowing economy
The graphics at the linked article show how bad things really are for EV sales in China.
I would post those graphics, but I'm not interested. Ready to move on. Maybe I'll post them later.
But I think the real question is this: in a centrally-managed country that could literally tell its people what cars to buy, why did China make this decision to:
- remove sales restrictions on traditional cars
- reduce government subsidies for EVs
- coal
- cash
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