Wednesday, July 3, 2024

Four New Permits; Four Permits Renewed -- July 3, 2024

 l

How to grill the "perfect" hot dog! Link at The New York Times! My thoughts: if one needs instructions to grill a hot dog ... heaven help us. Clickbait! And yes, I clicked. Nothing new under the sun. Hard to mess up grilled hot dogs. In fact, if you mess up grilled hot dogs, you're trying too hard.

ABC down! At 5:20 p.m. CDT, almost on the dot, ABC streaming went dark. Is ABC streaming down? Link here.

Germany is getting greener! As German industry is declining. From oilprice:

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $83.66.

Active rigs: 38.

Four new permits, #40899 - #40902, inclusive:

  • Operators: Hess (3), CLR
  • Fields: Beaver Lodge (Williams); Cabernet (Dunn)
  • Comments:
    • Hess has permits for three BL-Blanchard wells, NENW 27-155-96, 
      • to be sited 331 FNL and at 1947 FWL, 2013 FWL, and 2046 FWL;
    • CLR has a permit for an Entzel well, SWSW 26-144-97, 
      • to be sited 425 FNL and 1373 FWL;

Four permits renewed:

  • CLR: two Charleston permits and two Olympia permits, all four permits in Brooklyn oil field, Williams County;

Headlines -- July 3, 2024

Locator: 48042HEADLINES.

Retail:Saks is merging with Nieman Marcus with help of Amazon.

Politics and geopolitics



 AAPL:




JPM
, big story on CNBC's "Half-Time Report" today -- must have cost JPM a lot of money this past year.


At the close:


Fireworks Post Fourth-Of-July? July 3, 2024

Locator: 48041POLITICS.

Updates

Later, 3:07 p.m. CDT: Dr Jill wins. Joe says he’s staying. The waffling is over. This will be fascinating to watch. Now, let’s see what the pundits have to say.

Later, 11:45 a.m. CDT: this is the problem "we" have now. 

Americans do not like uncertainty or "what-ifs." Waffling -- Biden saying he is weighing options -- is a much worse situation for the Democratic Party as a whole, than just making a decision and sticking with it.
For Biden, who has probably already made up his mind, his waffling is not a problem. In politics, in fact, it is a fact that a politician doesn't not make a final decision until the last possible moment. So, for a lifelong politician, this waffling is not a big deal; it's part of the process -- a process he has been through a million times.
What I'm not seeing, because I don't watch television, is all the partisan ads (and news bites by right-wing outlets) looping videos of Biden at his worse. And that will only get worse and worse and worse while he is dithering. The opposition party sees blood in the water.
Obama --> "don't let a crisis go to waste" --> who's been on the campaign trail before? --> who would feel right at home on the presidential campaign trail? --> all roads -- or should we say, all presidential campaign trails -- lead to Michelle. Michelle doesn't need a platform. She would simply save the nation from Trump, just as Trump saved the nation from Hillary. Who comes out of this looking the best -- or has the most to lose -- Mr Obama, himself. If he hangs on too long in his support for Biden and it doesn't go well for Biden, then Obama loses his legacy. That's all Obama has right now: his legacy and, ironically, it's tied to the one man who Obama said, "don't underestimate Joe's ability to .... " Link here. To the extent this was apocryphal, I do not know.

Original Post

In politics, this is about as close as one gets to an official announcement:

  • unless this was taken out of context, no politician admits "defeat" or starts to rationalize "defeat" or a "decision to step down;"
  • The NYT would not have printed this story if the editorial staff had not already pulled their support;
  • tipping point: running out of time
  • two tracks:
    • how to convince Jill to get on board; how to get Joe to step down;
      • George S. could have the interview of a lifetime, but that interview won't be live
      • right now, the individual quickly becoming the most-disliked political person? Jill Biden. For lack of a better word, she's looking more and more like a gold-digger.
    • picking a replacement; lots of pressure on Michelle O. to run

********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $82,84.

Friday, July 5, 2024: 7 for the month; 7 for the quarter, 343 for the year
40384, conf, Kraken, Wayne 11-14-23 2H,

Thursday, July 4, 2024: 6 for the month; 6 for the quarter, 342 for the year
40222, conf, CLR, Marshall 4-13H,
39892, conf, Hess, EN-Madisyn-LE-154-94-0705H-8,,

Wednesday, July 3, 2024: 4 for the month; 4 for the quarter, 340 for the year
40306, conf, Stephens Williston, Cabot 15591-0112-5H,

RBN Energy: on-purpose propylene doesn't come easy.

Fast-rising NGL supplies during the early years of the Shale Era fueled excitement about the potential for new petrochemical plants in the U.S., especially ethane-only crackers to make ethylene and other byproducts, along with propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants to make propylene. While 11 new ethane-fed crackers have come online in the U.S. since the mid-2010s and the world’s largest — Chevron Phillips Chemical and QatarEnergy’s 4.8-billion-lb/year facility — is under construction in Texas, only three of the many PDH projects proposed over the same period were actually built. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at why the initial rush of new PDH project announcements resulted in so few new U.S. plants.

The Shale Revolution changed a lot of energy fortunes in the U.S. Pre-shale, the U.S. had become heavily dependent on foreign crude oil and was planning to import LNG to help meet natural gas demand, but with shale, the U.S. is now the world’s largest producer of oil, gas and NGLs and a significant exporter of all three. Plentiful domestic supplies of NGLs and purity products like ethane, propane, butanes and natural gasoline also helped revive the petrochemical industry and turn the U.S. into a global supplier of both petchem feedstocks and plastic resins.

North American PDH Units

Figure 1. North American PDH Units. Source: RBN 

Before 2015, the U.S. had a slew of mixed-feed crackers that were built to “crack” different feedstocks such as ethane, propane, butane, naphtha and gas oil to produce ethylene, propylene and other byproducts — the building blocks of too many chemicals to count. INVISTA’s Houston-area facility (blue pentagon in Figure 1 above) — built by PetroLogistics LP in 2010 and later sold to Koch Industries — was the only PDH unit in North America at the time as propylene demand was largely met with enough “byproduct” production — propylene output from mixed-feed crackers or refineries. There are now five PDH units operating in North America (more on those later).

Chips -- Update, Commentary -- July 3, 2024

Locator: 48040TECH.

With regard to tech, chips, and investing, I consider this a big deal (for me). Note the usual disclaimer -- everywhere on the blog and also at the bottom of this page.

In the big scheme of things, I see:

  • NVDA: GPUs
  • AMD: CPUs
  • MU: memory
  • NPUs: multiple, proprietary
  • AAPL: SoC

Tabs at the top of the page:

The big source: wiki.

System on a chip: Apple and Broadcom graphics at wiki --

A quick perusal of all these sites, plus:

  • the blog, January 20, 2023;
  • Chip War, Chris Miller, c. 2022;
    • around 2022, I pivoted from energy to tech and developed an investing map based on that book

Putting that altogether ....

.... so, when I saw this, I was quite pleasantly surprised.

AMD: to build a supercomputer, 30x larger than the world's largest operational supercomputer? Link here. Press release from AMD:

Be sure to read the comments at the link. Particularly this one: https://x.com/WatchThisIWC/status/1808252744056426652

So, it that just idle chatter coming out of nowhere? It sure seems "pie in the sky," but then this credible source, tom'sHARDWARE:


Possibilities:

  • US public: only intel agencies, and AMD wouldn't be discussing this if that's where the offer existed
  • US private: there are only a few companies that could pull this off; think of the trillion-dollar market cap club: Amazon, possibly; Apple, no; MSFT, no; Musk (TSLA), possibly; NVDA, obviously not.
  • sovereign nations:
    • as noted above, US, no
    • Saudi Arabia: wouldn't surprise me
    • Japan: why?

The timing is incredibly interesting. An AMD press release following an international conference: see above.

The Frontier computer at wiki.

Then to come full circle:

Putting that altogether ....

.... so, when I saw this, I was quite pleasantly surprised. As an investor, this is almost actionable intel:

  • unlike global warming, climate change, the tech revolution is not controversial;
    • the tech revolution is very, very real
    • huge FOMO among sovereign countries, and large market-cap publicly-traded companies
    • unlike the dot.com bust several decades ago, "real" hardware -- not just webpages and dreams -- are being sold
  • the tech revolution is being "run" by huge, well-known, well-managed tech companies, not be start-ups that we saw during the dot.com bust
  • unlike the dot.com period when start-ups depended on huge amounts of hedge-fund support, the companies involved in the tech revolution have huge cash reserves; they have huge cash reserves and/or equity valuation that is not considered wildly out of line
  • this revolution is occurring despite high interest rates; imagine what happens when the Fed makes that first cut;
  • tech companies are growing into their evaluations
    • Exhibit A:
      • Nvidia: a p/e of 73
      • AAPL: below it's "usual" p/e
      • AVGO: 73; 10-1 split pending
      • QCOM: 27
      • INTC: 33
While writing the above:
  • MSFT hits a new all-time high;
  • AAPL turns positive again; if closes in the green, will set a new record; hits a new all-time high;
  • NVDA snaps several-day losing stretch and is now (nicely) green today;
  • MU up nicely today.

****************
Disclaimer Briefly Reminder
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.  

BR Activity In Hawkeye And Charlson Oil Fields -- The Washburn Wells And The Sequoia Wells -- Interesting Well Names -- July 3, 2024

Locator: 48039B.

This page won't be updated. 

See also this post of December 27, 2023.

In yesterday's daily activity report:

Approved for re-entry:

  • 17309, BR, Washburn 44-36H, bottom hole location - NWSW 35-153-95; sections 35 / 36 -153-95; Charlson

The BR Washburn wells are tracked here.  

  • 17309, conf/270, BR, Washburn 44-26H, Charlson, t7/08; cum 139K 1/20; off line 2/20; remains off line 4/20; recent production:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20211350
2-2020060
1-2020285405
12-2019249306
11-2019267191
10-20192550
9-20190287
8-2019235394
7-2019265176
6-2019230265
5-2019229327
4-201923977
3-2019203683
  • 25655, 2,856, BR, Washburn 43-36TFH, Charlson, t12/13; cum 393K 4/20; cum 451K 4/24;
  • 25656, 1,104, BR, Washburn 43-36MBH, Charlson, t1/14; cum 366K 4/20; cum 428K 2/24;
  • 25665, 2,952, BR, Washburn 44-36TFH, Charlson, t12/13; cum 355K 4/20; cum 436K 4/24;
  • 25678, 2,976, BR, Washburn 41-36TFH, Charlson, t1/14; cum 450K 4/20; cum 544K 4/24;
  • 25679, 2,800, BR, Washburn 41-36MBH, Charlson, t1/14; cum 386K 4/20; cum 460K 4/24;
  • 25680, 2,544, BR, Washburn 42-36TFH, Charlson, t1/14; cum 373K 4/20; cum 426K 4/24;

The map

The "new" wells with intereseting naming style; it will be interesting to see the size of the spacing units. Having said that I think BR is hemmed in by other operators; not sure; haven't looked in a long time.

  • 37620, conf, BR, Hawkeye, Sequoiafill 1A, Hawkeye,
  • 37619, conf, BR, Hawkeye, Sequoiafill 1B, Hawkeye,
  • 37618, conf, BR, Hawkeye, Sequoiafill 1C, Hawkeye,
  • 37617, conf, BR, Hawkeye, Sequoiafill 1D, Hawkeye,
  • 37616, conf, BR, Hawkeye, Sequoiafill 1E, Hawkeye,
  • 37615, conf, BR, Hawkeye, Sequoiafill 1F, Hawkeye,
  • 37614, conf, BR, Hawkeye, Sequoiafill 1G, Hawkeye,

The horizontals of these wells will go south into the Hawkeye oil field, sections 4/9-152-95. There are already eight horizontals in those two sections. Seven more will now be added?


See this post of December 27, 2023.



 

Tuesday, July 2, 2024

WTI Drops Back Below $83; S&P 500 Closes Above 5,500 For First Time Since JPow Highlights Inflation Progress -- His Comments Today Were Viewed As Hawkish -- July 2, 2024

Locator: 48038INV.

Tech: this is a tease. Sorry. But I have family commitments and won't get back to this until later this evening. [Later: comments posted here.]

I made a "huge mistake" with regard to tech. In the big scheme of things, it's not a "mistake per se" and to what degree it is, it's a "good mistake," if there's such a thing as a "good mistake" with regard to investing. Hint: it has to do with my comments regarding Nvidia and AMD and how they differ.
JPow: comments today suggest JPow is not going to cut rates any time soon. He seems "angry" about something. If not "angry," at least frustrated. Corroborates my commentary from a couple days ago.

My hunch: JPow is getting a lot of flack from politicos -- high rates are costing the government lots of money in interest. Based on his statements today. Think about it. What would the interest payments be if interest rates were 0% or 1% compared with 5% now?


AAPL: if "Fast Money" folks talked about AAPL today, I missed it. I saw most of the program, but missed the first twenty minutes.

 ***************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $82.81.

Active rigs: 39.

Five new permits, #40894 - #40898, inclusive:

  • Operators: Prairies Horizon Land, Phoenix Operating, Hess (3)
  • Fields: Big Butte (Mountrail); Skabo (Divide); wildcat, Stark County
  • Comments:
    • Hess has permits for three EN-McKenna wells, lot 4, section 6-156-93; 
      • to be sited 1308/1309 FNL and between 655 FWL and 721 FWL.
    • Phoenix Operating has a permit for a Jacobson well, NENW 19-160-98; 
      • to be sited 310 FNL and 2302 FWL
    • Prairie Horizon Land has a permit for a Grasshopper well, NENE 16-137-94, 
      • to be sited 332 FNL and 312 FEL.

Approved for re-entry:

  • 17309, BR, Washburn 44-36H, bottom hole location - NWSW 35-153-95; sections 35 / 36 -153-95; Charlson

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 40093, n/d, Whiting, Sanish Bay W 5293 34-1 5T, Mountrail County

Trump -- NY -- Delay In Sentencing In Light Of Recent SCOTUS Ruling -- July 2, 2024

Locator: 48037POLITICS.

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AAPL

Not long ago, AAPL target: $220.  Today, AAPL hits that $220 target --

"Fast Money" on CNBC has been consistent about knocking AAPL as long as I've watched CNBC. Dan Nathan has been the most consistent knocking AAPL -- note, in this episode, back in January, 2024, Nathan actually "bragged" that he had shorted AAPL -- another said he didn't hold AAPL and another said he would not buy at this level. I guess that means he wouldn’t buy at $220, either. I wonder how that short position worked out:

***********************
VIX Drops Below 12 

Intergenerational Wealth Transfer -- CNBC's View -- July 2, 2024

Locator: 48036B.

I've added a new tag: "wealthtransfer." I should have done that quite some time ago, but better late than never. 

I've begun the process. In the past week:

  • I've added to grandchildren's "529" on four occasions.
  • I've moved a significant amount of cash from personal account to account designated for youngest granddaughter.
  • I've added the usual monthly cash amount to the account of the youngest two grandchildren
  • I've added no new money to my own accounts; all new money has been moved to grandchildren's accounts.

The story below does not concern me for any number of reasons.

Today, from CNBC:  

WTI Rate Of Rise Quite Remarkable -- July 2, 2024

Locator: 48036B.

Updates

Later, 10:07 a.m. CDT: GM reports best US quarterly sales since 2020. Link here.

  • EV sales: increased 40% y/y; units sold: 22,000 (compare with >400,000 Teslas)
  • overall report, "meh" -- but Phil LeBeau can spin the report very, very positively
    • made up 3.2% of total second quarter sales
    • most likely, the EVs lost money for GM

Later, 9:42 a.m. CDT: "everyone" commenting on this subject suggests that a Trump presidency will result in a significant increase in inflation. Interesting. 

Later, 9:39 a.m. CDT: all indices red -- and quite red -- at the opening, but now NASDAQ has just turned green;

  • of note, AAPL up another 1.1%; up $2.38. Never saw that coming.

Later, 8:25 a.m. CDT: HERE IT IS: Tesla reports 443,956 deliveries in 2Q24 -- a 4.8% decrease from last year

  • TSLA, immediately following release of data:  up 6.1%; up $12.85 / share; slightly higher than just before the release of the data
  • CNBC: ignoring TSLA; talking about PARA, Paramount, Diller 
  • in mid-morning trading, up almost $20 / share; up 9.4%.

*****************************
Original Post

Tesla: pending. Pre-market. I may miss the announcement; family commitments.

  • the market is "red" across the board, but yet TSLA is up strong in pre-market trading
  • TSLA up 3.5% in pre-market trading; up over $8 / share after a strong showing yesterday
  • as we get closer to the data release, the share price in pre-market trading keeps rising; 
    • now, up 4.7%; up almost $10 / share (8:10 a.m. CDT) 
    • now up, 5.5%; up $11.51 / share (8:16 a.m. CDT)
  • either movers and shakers have advance information or. ..

Behind?

Apple: several reports that Apple is ordering more chips from TSM indicating expectations of huge rollout of new phone.

Biofuels: Shell has just announced it's halting the construction of one of the largest biofuels plants in Europe. Companies don't make these decisions rashly. What Shell saw that resulted in this decision must have been mind-boggling. And this is in Europe. Some use the word "pauses" construction implying ... Bloomberg says "temporarily paused construction."

Bird flu: US awards Moderna $176 million to produce bird flu vaccine.

Presidential immunity, link here. This, from one of the more conservative justices. Folks completely misread the SCOTUS ruling. In addition to "protecting" former president Trump, it has also "protected" Joe Biden and every future president.

Buy or rent: Suze Orman. I wouldn't link her if I didn't agree with her.

**********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $84.20. Over $84 but more importantly, the rate of increase in price is quite interesting. Even after hitting $83, it was up almost 1% overnight; up 82 cents. But it's probably temporary, due to Hurricane Beryl.

Wednesday, July 3, 2024: 4 for the month; 4 for the quarter, 340 for the year
40306, conf, Stephens Williston, Cabot 15591-0112-5H, 

Tuesday, July 2, 2024: 3 for the month; 3 for the quarter, 339 for the year
40264, conf, Stephens Williston, Cabot 15591-0112-4H,

RBN Energy: Supreme Court throws out "Chevron Deference, upends regulatory law.

That the Supreme Court overturned the Chevron Deference, a key foundation of modern administrative law for 40 years, in its June 28 ruling in Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo (Loper Bright) was no surprise, although it does not make it any less disruptive. The order follows a steady drumbeat of Supreme Court decisions issued during this term and in recent prior ones curbing the regulatory enforcement capabilities of Executive Branch agencies. But while this is a landmark case and would be expected to lead to a host of new legal challenges, its practical effect might end up being more nuanced. In today’s RBN blog, we revisit the Chevron Deference, why the Court said it had to go, and what it might mean for economic and environmental regulations impacting the energy industry. 

Before we get into how the Court made its decision, a couple of observations are in order right at the top, given its importance and potential long-term impact. First, reining in Executive Branch agencies can cut both ways. In the last administration, then President Trump often used executive orders and agency actions to implement his vision of the world, including trying to get the Department of Energy (DOE) to force utilities to run their coal plants regardless of the cost relative to natural gas. That’s the kind of action that could be threatened by this decision. Second, as we’ve written many times regarding the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) saga, federal permitting agencies were consistently receptive to the project, issuing permit after permit, but the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit repeatedly reversed those decisions (see Rescue Me). In other words, the courts haven’t been very shy about jumping into agency decisions favorable to energy companies. (We’ll explore some of the other implications of the ruling in a bit.)

Monday, July 1, 2024

Another Huge "Thank You" To Readers Providing Me Bakken Information That Is Important To Mineral Owners In The Bakken -- Monday, July 1, 2024

Locator: 48035B.

A big "THANK YOU."

*********************
The Drinking Game

After picking up Sophia, I turned on "Fast Money" on CNBC, and within two minutes, one of the panelists when discussing Apple mentioned "hyperscalers and large language machines." 

***********************
Back to the Bakken

WTI:

Active rigs: 39.

Eleven new permits, #40882 - 40892, inclusive (disclaimer: typographic and content errors may be present):

  • Operators: Grayson Mill (3), Zavanna (2), Oasis (2), Hunt (2), CLR, Murex
  • Fields: Haystack Butte (Dunn); Epping (Williams); Arnegard (McKenzie), Parshall (Mountrail), Alexander (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has a permit for a Berlain well, lot 1, section 30-151-100, 
      • to be sited 335 FNL and 1123 FWL
    • Murex has a permit for a LA-Jean Claudine well, NWNE 25-151-101, 
      • to be sited 295 FNL and 2030 FEL; 
    • Zavanna has a permit for a Midas well, SESE 36-155-99, 
      • to be sited 410 FSL and 975 FEL; and, 
    • Zavanna has a permit for an Olympia well, SESW 36-155-99, 
      • to be sited 250 FSL and 1616 FEL;
    • Grayson Mill has permits for three Bice wells, lot 4, section 18-148-97; 
      • to be sited 873 FSL and 572 FWL; 843 FSL and 572 FWL; and, 813 FSL and 572 FWL;
    • Oasis has permits for two Como wells, lot 2, section 30-150-100, 
      • to be sited at 1941 FNL and 528 FWL; and at 1961 FNL and 555 FWL;
    • Hunt has permits for two Oakland wells, NENW 20-154-89, 
      • to be sited 460 FNL and at 1455 FWl and 1425 FWL.

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 39417, 89, Sparrow Oil & Gas, West Dry Creek 1H, Renville County;

Change of operator

Reminder:

  • Chord was a merger of Oasis with Whiting;
  • Chord is now buying Enerplus

MRO, COP, Top Bakken Producers -- East Daley -- From June 6, 2024 -- Posted July 1, 2024

Locator: 48034B.

Deals affecting the Bakken are posted at the sidebar at the right. 

This was posted some weeks ago.

This is fairly old news and I assume "everybody" that needs to know, knows, and it's only me who keeps forgetting.

But for the archives:

Some mineral owners in the Bakken may be receiving royalties from MRO.

MRO could remain a wholly-owned subsidiary of COP and and royalties still coming from MRO.

Or MRO could be absorbed by BR (a wholly-owned subsidiary of COP) or something entirely else.

We won't know for awhile. Or maybe someone one knows and I don't know.

 ************************
East Daley: MRO, COP, And The Bakken

The East Daley note referenced above was posted June 6, 2024, and is linked here.


*************************************
Producers

Rounding, it looks like, with regard to production:

  • Chord + Enerplus will about equal CLR;
  • COP + MRO will be about one-half that of CLR or Chord + Enerplus:
  • HES will be a bit less than COP + MRO;
  • XOM (XTO) could be about half of HES

So:

  • the "big names"
    • 1 unit: Chord + Enerplus    16/16
    • 1 unit: CLR                        16/16
    • 1/2 unit: COP + MRO        8/16
    • 3/8 unit: HES                        6/16
    • 3/16 unit: XOM                    3/16
  • all of those "big names" totaled will equal about one-half of Bakken's total production; "others" would include:
    • Kraken + Neptune
    • Grayson Mill
    • Zavanna
    • EOG
    • Petro-Shale
    • Phoenix
    • Hunt
    • Slawson 
    • Iron Oil Operating
    • Empire North Dakota
    • SOGC (Sinclair)
    • KODA Resources
    • Murex 
    • True Oil
    • Spotted Hawk, and,
    • many others

Reminder:

  • Chord was a merger of Oasis with Whiting;
  • Chord is now buying Enerplus

WTI Trending Breaches $83 -- July 1, 2024

Locator: 48033EVS.

WTI: $83.44 at 1:21 p.m. CDT, Monday, July 1, 2024.

Interestingly, shares in oil companies are up a bit but not as much as one might expect. Once exception: CHRD, which pays over 5%:

*************************
EV Mandates At Risk

The following story is incredibly important, writer is incredibly credible: Charles Kennedy  -- probably the best contributor to oilprice and tends to address only major stories.

EVs and mandates, link here.


AAPL, MSFT, And BRK-B -- First Day Of The New Quarter -- July 1, 2024

Locator: 48032MARKET.

At the close:

***********************
Original Post

Berkshire Hathaway's equity portfolio: about 40% is made up of AAPL.

Today, AAPL: up a whopping $4.41; up 2.11%; trading at $215.13 trending toward its 52-week high.

Meanwhile, BRK: down 0.54%; down $2.18.

When 40% of your stock portfolio is "surging" and the value of your overall portfolio is decreasing, it suggests how huge the drag is caused by the other holdings, most of which are "legacy" or long-term holdings. 

In BRK's case, a huge portion of the equity portfolio is held in cash because of regulatory requirements (insurance and banking requirements).

This drop in the BRK-B ticker comes a couple of days after the headline story that BRK-B made a "gazillion" dollars on the sale of BYD. 

All (much?) of tech is up today -- biggest reason -- start of a new quarter? And, also:

  • SCOTUS ruling today favors Trump; increases Trump's return to the White House which tech generally supports -- at least according to many pundits. I have no idea.

In addition to AAPL, MSFT is also up very nicely today.

Morgan Stanley "ups" its Nvidia target:

  • raises target from $116 to $144
    • $123 - $144: a 17% move from here.
    • $116 - $144: a 24% move from previous target.

Nvidia: response to Chinese ban -- link here -- has already responded and it sounds like "China" is happy with the solution -- 


***************************
Later, AAPL


****************************
Half-Time Report

Stephen Weiss trims NVDA -- second time in as many days or at least two trims in past week. Defends his position. Again, calls "chips" commodities. Noted on CNBC "Half-Time Report" at ~ 11:20 a.m. CDT.

If "chips" are commodities, then "everything" is / are commodities. Weiss' argument: "everybody" will jump into manufacturing chips.

If "chips" are commodities, why are automobiles not commodities? Why are fast-food restaurants not commodities. "Everybody" can make automobiles. Everybody can open fast-food restaurants.

In fact,

  • Nvidia makes GPUs, one kind of "chip";
  • AMD makes CPUs another kind of "chip";
  • Micron isn't even known for making processing units; it makes "memory" chips
  • only one "chip-maker" is designing and already delivering hardware units with 3-nm chips
  • Intel couldn't do it -- couldn't get to 7-nm much less 3-nm and ended up outsourcing newer, smaller chips
  • this all needs to be fact-checked; things change quickly in the industry -- "everything everywhere is happening all at once"

By the way, Stephen Weiss' last trade today: AMSL -- noted that TSM will use the EUV's the AMSL is manufacturing. One of many posts on the blog regarding AMSL: https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2024/06/big-big-big-tech-story-today-asml-and_5.html

Headlines -- July 1, 2024

Locator: 48031TRUMP.

Decision on immunity: a win for Trump.

  • 6 -3 decision
    • pundits will get a lot of mileage out of that 6 -3 vote
    • but, a lot of SCOTUS decisions are split decisions, and many of them are even "worse," coming in at 5-4
    • will inflame a lot of passion: possibly a fund-raising bonanza for Trump
    • "possibly for Biden"-- a fund-raising bonanza -- CNBC reporter on DC politics
  • long decision -- 119 pages
    • pages 16 - 32: narrative on "official" vs "unofficial"
    • as CNBC  continues to read through the decision, Trump wins in a big way
  • comes at a time when Biden is stumbling
  • none of current "cases" will reach the courts before the election
    • if Trump wins election, would choose AG who has authority to shut down federal cases against Trump
  • most fun: interesting to listen how CNBC tries to spin this story 
  • bottom line: 
  • "headline" -- 30-second soundbite -- absolute immunity with regard to "official" acts
    • how can anyone with any common sense disagree with this?
    • did SCOTUS really change anything? Nope.

Can't live on EVs and renewable energy alone -- OPEC: link here.


Under Biden, link here.



a

Personal Mileage -- July 1, 2024

Locator: 48030HONDA.

Tag: mileage personal


 

WTI: $82 -- July 1, 2024

Locator: 48029B.

A reminder: Painted Woods Golf Course north of Bismarck, ND, now an 18-hole golf course.

Fastest growing state: North Dakota, again. Link here.

SCOTUS: rules for North Dakota business in Watford City, ND. Link here.

 **************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $82.05.

Tuesday, July 2, 2024: 3 for the month; 3 for the quarter, 339 for the year
40264, conf, Stephens Williston, Cabot 15591-0112-4H, 

Monday, July 1, 2024: 2 for the month; 2 for the quarter, 338 for the year
39895,
conf, Hess, EN-Madisyn-LE-154-94-0705H-11,
39224, conf, Hess, BL-Herfindahl-156-95-3031H-3,

RBN Energy: the strange relationship between Mont Belvieu and Conway NGLS. Archived.

Mont Belvieu, TX and Conway, KS, are the two most significant U.S. hubs for NGL trading, storage and fractionation, with the much bigger Mont Belvieu hub primarily serving Gulf Coast and export demand, while the smaller Conway hub is focused on Midwest/Great Plains demand, especially for propane. The pricing dynamics between the two hubs are a key indicator of the supply/demand balance between the regions, but they don’t have the same kind of influence over the direction or magnitude of flows as price differential dynamics often do for other energy commodities. In today’s RBN blog, we will examine the gap between the price of the NGL “basket” in Mont Belvieu versus Conway and what that price spread tells us. 

We should begin with a brief reminder for readers who don’t live and breathe NGLs. The NGL market is in some ways a world of its own, with more quirks and idiosyncrasies than the crude oil and natural gas markets combined. NGLs are, of course, produced in significant volumes in most Lower 48 production areas, with notable exceptions such as the Haynesville and parts of the Marcellus where hydrocarbon output is largely limited to dry gas with little or no liquids. The associated gas emerging from wells with crude oil includes a combination of natural gas, mixed NGLs and impurities that are separated at gas processing plants into natural gas and mixed NGLs (aka Y-grade), each of which is then moved to downstream customers. Depending on the region and pricing relationships, some of the ethane within the associated gas is “rejected” into natural gas at the processing plant.