How Low Will It Go? April 25, 2018 -- Natural Gas Withdrawal Season Is Poised To Stretch Two Weeks Longer Than Ever Due To Global Cooling -- April 25, 2018

Updates

April 16, 2018: update here.  

Original Post 

See this post.

The next natural gas fill/withdrawal data will be released by the EIA tomorrow (Thursday, April 26, 2018). This is what is forecast.

Now, this, from today's twitter.

The link to Platt's.

The natural gas withdrawal season is poised to stretch two weeks longer than ever reported as stocks must currently replace 2.549 Tcf of gas to reach the five-year average by the start of the next heating season.

The US Energy Information Administration on Thursday is expected to report a 12 Bcf withdrawal for the week that ended April 20, according to a survey of analysts by S&P Global Platts. Responses to the survey were tight and ranged from a withdrawal of 7 Bcf to 17 Bcf. The EIA plans to release its weekly storage report at 10:30 am EDT on Thursday. A 12 Bcf draw would be very bullish compared to the corresponding week last year, which featured a 71 Bcf injection, and the five-year average build of 60 Bcf. It would also be the latest net withdrawal on record for the heating season.

A withdrawal within analysts' expectations of 12 Bcf would deplete stocks to 1.287 Tcf. The deficit versus the five-year average would grow to 521 Bcf and the deficit versus the corresponding week last year would expand to 891 Bcf.

The EIA reported a 36 Bcf net withdrawal for the week ended April 13. It dropped inventories to 1.299 Tcf, which was 38.3% less than the year-ago inventory of 2.107 Tcf, and 25.7% less than the five-year average of 1.748 Tcf.

Note: yes, I know. This is not all due to global cooling. A lot of this has to do with the nation moving from coal to natural gas. (And, of course, wind and solar energy could not make up the shortfall when coal plants were shut down.)