1 Million Barrels/Day By 2020?

The one million barrels/day figure was cited again in this story in which TransCanada is reported to commit to carrying up to 100,000 bopd from the Bakken. TransCanada expects to tap into North Dakota crude at Baker, Montana, starting in 2013.

The takeaway capacity for North Dakota crude is about 425,000 bopd, combining pipeline, truck, and rail. North Dakota production is around 315,000 bopd, but folks have been repeating the mantra "one million bopd by 2020."

Incidentally, these numbers conflict with stories about the bottleneck of transporting oil out of the state. Analysts explain that the North Dakota crude is discounted by more than 10 percent because of lack of capacity. That's because much of the 425,000 bopd takeaway capacity is due to truck and rail shipments which is much more expensive than pipeline.

Back of the envelope calculations: North Dakota production is now at 315,000 bopd. Increasing production by 10 percent every year from now until 2020 will result in 900,000 bopd by 2020.

Another article on this story regarding TransCanada's Keystone XL pipeline can be found in the Billings Gazette.com.