Oracle Update -- November 30, 2024

Locator: 44466INVESTING.

Tag: Oracle.

From December 12, 2023, one year ago, link here:

Locator: 46284HEADLINES.

The fourth industrial revolution: industrial revolutions historically run ten years. 

StarLink: if you don't believe that about the 4th Industrial Revolution, look into some of StarLink's numbers being reported.

Think NVDA: from Oracle's earnings call -- 100 new data centers --

And since that original link, I've mentioned Oracle many, many times.

Now flash forward. Link here.

 From the linked article:

Oracle (ORCL) is partying like it's 1999. Oracle stock is tracking to have its best year since the turn of the century as the tech giant joins the euphoria around artificial intelligence, the hot trend that experts say could boost its reach — and finally make it a serious contender — in the cloud.

The database software titan, whose shares have soared more than 80% year to date, was slow to join the party when cloud-computing took hold in the enterprise technology world a decade ago. Oracle has been playing catch-up to cloud giants Amazon, Microsoft, and Google parent Alphabet and still trails far behind them, a P/E of 48.

Oracle's stock price climb this year trails only Nvidia's 183% surge for top-performance among mega-cap stocks, as of November 25, 2024. 

Ellison has surpassed Amazon founder Jeff Bezos as the world's second richest-man behind Elon Musk, according to Forbes. Ellison, who just turned 80, stepped aside as CEO a decade ago but remains chairman, CTO and an outspoken fixture at Oracle's public events.

Ticker:

And more: 

Those efforts often focus on the Oracle Cloud Infrastructure business, which competes with Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud.

But Oracle also has a wide portfolio of enterprise software services, such as its industry-leading database software and cloud applications like NetSuite and Oracle Fusion.

"That vision from the chip to the user-click along one stack is what Oracle has been building toward and is now being realized by customers and helping Oracle's momentum," Mueller told IBD.

The strategy is getting a boost from Oracle's strength as the industry's leading database provider. Oracle database software is used by 96% of the Fortune 100.

"Before you go on your AI journey, you have to get your data straight," Del Prete said. "You have got to structure your data in a way that these models can take the best advantage of."

One may want to use AI to learn a bit more about Oracle vis-a-vis its major competitors and SNOW. You should find it fascinating.

Syria -- Everything Everywhere Happening All At Once -- November 30, 2024

Locator: 44465SYRIA.

Over at Trump 2.0, I have a new section focused on the "interlude" (for lack of a better word at the moment) -- from November 5, 2024, to January 20, 2025.

Tonight, I've added this section:

Geo-politics:

• Syria

All I can think of right now, everything everywhere happening all at once.

BUD Has Never Recovered From The Debacle -- November 30, 2024

Locator: 44464BUD.

Kash Patel -- FBI -- November 30, 2024

Locator: 44463TRUMP.

Kash Patel.

ABC -- link here.

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Warmth

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Tonight's Movie 

The Spy Who Came In From The Cold.

Wiki. 

I can't imagine today's moviegoer enjoying this movie.

The US Consumer Rules -- Black Friday --- Next, Cyber Monday -- November 30, 2024

Locator: 44462CONSUMER.

Before we get to Black Friday -- how about this:

In a league of its own:

Now, back to Black Friday. 

No links. Story everywhere.

Gasoline Prices: What's Going On In California? November 30, 2024

Locator: 44461GASOLINE.

Multiple tags; multiple stories.

Gasoline: link here.

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The Market

Ten largest stocks going into the Santa Claus rally. Link here.

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Another Record

S&P 600: link here.

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Nvidia

Link here.

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Norway EVS

Norway EVs: link here.

Jerry Jones: Brilliant -- November 30, 2024

Locator: 44460COWBOYS.

Multiple tags; multiple stories.

It's kind of funny. We've discussed this before. As smart as Stephen A. is, it seems the sports television personality hasn't been able to figure out Jerry Jones. With regard to the Cowboys, Jerry Jones, Dak Prescott, Mike McCarthy, I've gotten a lot of things wrong, but I've gotten the big "story" correct: Jerry Jones isn't as interested in Super Bowl rings as he is interested in money.

Link here.

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Financial Success

Link here.

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The Russian Ruble

Link here.

Week 47: November 24, 2024 -- November 30, 2024

Locator: 44459TOPSTORIES.

Pardon: President Biden pardons his son, Hunter. 

Announced Sunday night, December 1, 2024. Opens the door to Trump pardons. This could be Biden's legacy. His presidency will not be remembered for much except handling of his a) re-election, stepping aside way too late after saying he wouldn't; and, b) last official act, to pardon his son, after saying he wouldn't.

Thanksgiving dinner: least expensive dinner in entire history -- 39 years -- of doing the annual survey.

Trump transition begins:

• foreign leaders start making plans to visit Mar-a-Lago
• Canada's Justin Trudeau the first
  
• Tim Cook first CEO to visit Mar-a-Lago; followed by Mark Zuckerberg;
  
• Democratic mayors starting to get cold feet on sanctuary city status; poster child: Denver
  
• Texas donates 1200 acres along border for processing center; Texas will take lead in immigration policies; will see huge Federal bucks transferred from other states to Texas for immigration control;
• migrant problem shifting westward (to NM, AZ, CA)
  
• Israelis can't get ceasefires in place fast enough -- Lebanan-Israel ceasefire announced by Biden
• Ukraine war is reaching a tipping point; all of a sudden Zelenskyy is willing to negotiate
• all of a sudden, he’s willing to give up land
• tariffs get American trading partners' attention
• Canada: Trudeau wants to talk things over
• Mexico: fight's on
• Maddow, Morning Joe, liberal media becoming jokes; 
• did Carl Q switch too soon (X to Bluesky)?
  
• Trump's cabinet picks being targeted by threats on life, "swatting."

Opposition at full throttle to delegitimize Trump term even before it begins, but against this backdrop:

All federal cases against Trump have been drooped. State cases on hold.

Local: HEB breaks ground in our neighborhood, right across the street from Walmart. Fight's on!

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Top story of the week: 

• Donald Trump is de facto the new president, even before being sworn in
• Biden is on an extended vacation
• Kamala is nowhere to be seen
  

Top international non-energy story:

• COP29 was a failure
• the de-industrialization of Germany (same as last week, simply becoming more obvious)
  
• the end of the EV fad, 2024 (same as last week, simply becoming move obvious)
• auto manufacturers around the world struggling; overseas it's all about the cheap Chinese imports; Trump will prevent that from happening in the US; 
• too late in France? Large automobile parts company in France laying off 1,000 employees (Valeo SA)

Top international energy story:

• almost the entire EU has now banned Russian natural gas (same as last week; continued reports); link here; 
• even Switzerland is switching back to oil and natural gas.
  
• Saudi Arabia - delaying the OPEC meeting by a few days; unexplained
• green energy projects closing worldwide; tipping point reached? Even Switzerland is switching from emphasis on electricity back to oil and natural gas.
• Australia's Gorgon CCS project losing steam; CCS projects across the globe are underperforming 
• Porsche holding on to gas cars longer than expected; Ferrari doing surprisingly well;
  

Top national non-energy story:

• US financial market continues to reach new highs (again, same as last week; but more amazing this week -- S&P 500 hit 53rd new high for the year -- that's anew high every week of the year on average
  
• AAPL hit a new 52-week high; orders the new M5 chip from TSMC; deliveries to begin in late 2025; SoIC (not SOC)
• Apple is said to have expanded its cooperation with TSMC on the next-generation hybrid SoIC package, which also combines thermoplastic carbon fiber composite molding technology. The package reportedly entered a small trial production phase in July.
• EV market collapsing; Rivian gets $6.6 billion conditional loan to build Georgia facility; neither likely to happen; nonetheless RIVN shares do well. The year 2024 looks like the year "the music died for the EV" industry.
• ONEOK buying rest of EnLine Midstream
  

Top national energy story:

• immigration, deportation panic
• large data center electricity demand shuts down other non-LDC projects; not enough electricity to go around; LDCs have deep pockets to sign contracts.
• gasoline prices at record lows, current administration
• longer laterals coming to Delaware Basin (Permian) after COP-MRO deal closed.
  

Focus on fracking: current link here. Generally updated late Sunday night.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

• MRO continues to report monster wells; many, better than ever.
  

Geoff Simon's quick connects: link here.

The market in a nutshell: another huge week -- Santa Claus rally in full force.

The Movie Tonight: The Third Man -- November 29, 2024

Locator: 44458MOVIE.

Wiki, The Third Man. 

Wiki, Anton Karas.

Wiki, Graham Greene.

Wiki, Carol Reed.

Joseph Cotten.

Orson Welles.

Alida Valli.

Trevor Howard.

Absolutely fascinating watching this movie through the lens of Casablanca. I've probably watched this movie half a dozen times; this is the first time the Casablanca angle jumped out at me.

The Third Man: 1949, British film noir.

Casablanca: 1942, Romantic drama.

There are moments early in the movie when it seems the Alida Valli character could have been played by Ingrid Bergman, but Ingrid Bergman's character in Casablanca does not fit the Alida Valli character in The Third Man. In the latter, the Alida Valli character is very, very independent, quite unlike the Ingrid Bergman character in Casablanca, a woman very attached to the men she loved.

From google AI:

Cinephilia and Beyond.

The writing is incredible. One wonders to what extent Orsen Wells might have been involved in writing the screenplay.

From Culturall:

Zane Grey mentioned here.

SoIC -- Small Outline Integrated Circuit Package -- November 29, 2024

Locator: 44457APPLE.

Small outline integrated circuit package.

At wiki.

Link here.

From an earlier post on the M5:

One advantage that the M5 could flaunt over predecessors is that it could employ TSMC’s Small Outline Integrated Circuit Packaging, or SoIC. This type of packaging was first introduced in 2018 and allows the stacking of chips in a three-dimensional structure, resulting in better thermal management, reduced current leakage, and better electrical performance compared to the two-dimensional chip design. The specifications of the M5 are currently unknown, but a move to the improved 3nm process can mean that Apple may have the liberty to add more performance cores, just like what it did with the M4.

Apple Orders M5 Chips From TSMC -- For 2025 Delivery -- November 29, 2024

Locator: 44456APPLE.

Elsewhere:

• M5 is tracked here.
• Tech is tracked here.
• Chips are tracked here.
• Apple is tracked here.
• Apple Silicon is tracked here.

And for System on a Chip (exactly opposite what most of the rest of the PC industry, especially Dell is doing):

System on a Chip (SoC). SoC tracked here on the blog.

• M-series, M1, M2, M3, and M4: TSM, 3-nm -- desktops, laptops, tablets -- newest models in 2024.
• Apple's press release. 
• now, M5 -- July 5, 2024. September 27, 2024.
  
• A-series, A-17: TSM, 3-nm -- iPhone, iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone Pro Max
• A-series, A-18: all here.
  

System on a chip: the moment the industry shifted its focus.

Link here.

From the linked article:

The M5 series is expected to feature an enhanced ARM architecture and will reportedly be manufactured using TSMC's advanced 3-nanometer process technology. Apple's decision to forgo TSMC's more advanced 2nm process for the M5 chip is believed to be primarily due to cost considerations. Despite this, the M5 will feature significant advancements over the M4, notably through the adoption of TSMC's System on Integrated Chip (SoIC) technology.

This 3D chip-stacking approach enhances thermal management and reduces electrical leakage compared to traditional 2D designs. Apple is said to have expanded its cooperation with TSMC on the next-generation hybrid SoIC package, which also combines thermoplastic carbon fiber composite molding technology. The package reportedly entered a small trial production phase in July.

Apple's forthcoming M5 chip is anticipated to bring significant enhancements in performance and efficiency across various devices. Production could begin as early as the second half of 2025, with the first M5-equipped devices potentially launching by the end of next year or early 2026. Assuming Apple maintains its typical upgrade cycle for its custom silicon, here are the devices we're expecting to benefit first:

• iPad Pro
• MacBook Pro
• MacBook Air
• Apple Vision Air

Another Green Energy Business Will Be Phased Out -- November 29, 2024

Locator: 44455HYDROGEN.

Tag: hydrogen batteries green energy EVs cost renewables

Link here.

Photo Of The Day -- November 29, 2024

Locator: 44454PHOTO.

Look at those rolodexes. Jensen does his own dialing -- most billionaires, one would think, would have "Jeeves, get Elon on the phone."

If Rigzone Is Reporting It, It's Got To Be Real -- CCS -- November 29, 2024

Locator: 44452CCS.

Tag: Gorgon CCS.

Tag: CCS, carbon capture sequestration.

Link here.

French Auto Parts Supplier Valeo SA To Cut Jobs Due To "Massive" Loss of European Competitiveness -- November 29, 2024

Locator: 44451EUROPE.

Google valeo sa cutting jobs

French car parts supplier Valeo is set to cut 1,000 jobs across Europe.

Another indication things are not going well for auto manufacturers in Europe. 

EV -- Random Notes -- The Day The Music Died -- Clearing Out The Inbox -- November 29, 2024

Locator: 44450EVS.

Going from bad to worse, link to the WSJ: 

WaPo catalogues recent EV disaster news, link herehttps://x.com/JunkScience/status/1761777761624924425;

Rivian cash burn:

US Field Production -- September, 2024, Data

Locator: 44449B.

Link here.

Data for previous two months revised down slightly.

Busy Weekend For Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- November 29, 2024

Locator: 44448B.

WTI: $68.60.

Monday, December 2, 2024: 2 for the month; 106 for the quarter, 637 for the year

• 40106, conf, Enerplus, Devils Canyon 147-97--17-20-7H,

Sunday, December 1, 2024: 1 for the month; 105 for the quarter, 636 for the year

• 39749, conf, Hess, RS-F Nelson-156-91-2413H-4,

Saturday, November 30, 2024: 58 for the month;104 for the quarter, 635 for the year

• 40670, conf, CLR Carpenter 2-13H,
• 40665, conf, CLR, Sandhill 7-24HSL,
• 40661, conf, CLR, Sandhill 2-24H,
• 40107, conf, Enerplus, Devils Canyon 147-97-17-20-8H,
• 39858, conf, Hess, EN-Charles-Wood-157-94-1720H-5,

Friday, November 29, 2024: 53 for the month; 99 for the quarter, 630 for the year

• 40673, conf, CLR, Carpenter 5-13H,
• 40196, conf, Hess, EN-Dobrovolny-155-93-2821H-8,
• 40035, conf, Hess, BL-Svor-156-95-0403H-7,
• 39859, conf, Hess, EN-Lokken-157-94-0805H-4,
• 39748, conf, Hess, RS-F Nelson-156-91-2413-3,
• 39218, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 146-97-29A-32-4H,
• 37940, conf, BR, Boxer 4B TFH,

RBN Energy: Innovators at Cushing hub provide new outlet for Uinta Basin's "Yellow Wax" crude.

Cushing has done it again! The all-important hub in central Oklahoma is once more broadening the range of crude oils it handles, this time by figuring out how to receive and blend the quirkiest of domestic oils: yellow wax crude from Utah’s Uinta Basin. Better still, the blending can create a fully compliant Domestic Sweet (DSW), the crude quality deliverable on the CME/NYMEX futures contract usually referenced as West Texas Intermediate (WTI). In today’s RBN blog, we discuss how it works and what it means for Uinta producers, waxy crude marketers, refiners and Cushing itself.

Good Morning -- Happy Black Friday -- Cramer's First Hour -- The Market Is Insane -- November 29, 2024

Locator: 44447CRAMER.

Updates -- At The Close

1:25 p.m. CST:

Original Post -- At The Open

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.

I'm here but I'm not going to blog for awhile. 

I'm paying attention to the market. A bit of buying today.

Cramer is off today (CNBC). It's the "Eisenhour." LOL.

NFL: Black Friday game today, this afternoon -- Amazon Prime! Amazon Prime Video NFL viewership has grown 40% over the past few years -- source, CNBC. Al Michaels: streaming is coming much faster than he ever expected. Amazon really, really wanted this post-Thanksgiving package.

US markets:

• NASDAQ: opens above 19,000
• S&P: opens above 6,000 -- at 6,10, up 11 points
• Dow: opens at around 45,000, up 150 points.

X vs Bluesky? Carl is back to posting on X.  This needs to be fact-checked. Is Carl back on X?

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
• Longer version here.

This Is Not A Good News Story -- Despite The Headline -- November 28, 2024

Locator: 44446FETANYL.

This just showed up in my news feed today, November 28, 2024, but note that this story has a byline date of November 21, 2024. Strange.

Regardless, it's not a good news story. Almost every paragraph has an "are you kidding me moment?" 

Some of the relevant paragraphs that have that "are you kidding me moment"?

The fentanyl on the street is starting to become weaker. Anne Milgram, who heads the Drug Enforcement Administration, announced last week that for the first time since 2021, the agency was seeing a decline in fentanyl potency, a development she attributed to the government’s crackdown on Mexican cartels and international supply chains. Last year, seven out of 10 counterfeit pills tested in D.E.A. labs contained a life-threatening amount of fentanyl, she said, but that number has dropped to five out of 10.

From seven to five? Really? Is that good news?

Addiction experts say that other interventions contributed to the declining fatalities, including wider distribution of overdose reversal medications like Narcan; an uptick in some states in prescriptions for medication that suppresses opioid cravings; and campaigns warning the public about fentanyl-tainted counterfeit pills.

That's all great, but doesn't suggest Fentanyl use is declining all that much. Worse, the authors obfuscate Narcan with completely unrelated state policy changes.

Fentanyl is now often diluted with xylazine, an animal tranquilizer that can cause horrific skin ulcers, which have even led to limb amputations. But drug policy experts said that xylazine, in some cases, might also be having a lifesaving effect.

So, at least fentanyl pills are now being diluted with non-fentanyl drugs. Okay. 

Buy why the lifesaving effect?

People addicted to fentanyl often need the drug numerous times a day. But xylazine can sedate users for hours. If someone consumes fentanyl mixed with xylazine, “you might not shoot another bag of fentanyl, because you’re knocked out,” said Colin Miller, a researcher at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, who has been interviewing drug users in Grand Rapids, Mich., and Pittsburgh about the effects of xylazine in the street supply.

Because when you're knocked out with a horse sedative, you can't shoot up with more fentanyl.  

And, then, of course, the numbers themselves, which don't give me much comfort but apparently many in the field are seeing progress.

According to the latest provisional data from the C.D.C., overdose deaths fell to 97,000, in the 12 months that ended in June, a welcome drop below the grim 100,000 threshold that was surpassed during the pandemic but still staggering.

There were 16,000 fewer drug-related fatalities during that time period than in the period a year earlier — a projected drop of 14.5 percent. Data suggests that in many states, nonfatal overdose rates are falling as well.

But the data also shows uneven progress among racial and ethnic groups and geographic regions. Fatal overdoses among Black Americans generally increased between 2022 and 2023, while they largely decreased among white Americans, according to a recent Georgetown University analysis of state data.

For me, the article results in one observation: it appears the headline writer was focusing on the wrong metric.  

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Meanwhile, Highway Fatalities

Chart of the day: it doesn't take a rocket scientist to explain this chart:

Netflix -- Tim Burton -- Paint It Black -- Wednesday -- Rolling Stones -- Truly Amazing -- November 28, 2024

Locator: 44445NETFLIX.

Link here.

Wednesday is an American gothic coming-of-age supernatural mystery television series based on the character Wednesday Addams by Charles Addams. 

Created by Alfred Gough and Miles Millar, it stars Jenna Ortega as the titular character, with Gwendoline Christie, Riki Lindhome, Jamie McShane, Hunter Doohan, Percy Hynes White, Emma Myers, Joy Sunday, Georgie Farmer, Naomi J. Ogawa, Christina Ricci, and Moosa Mostafa appearing in supporting roles. 

Four out of the eight episodes of the first season were directed by Tim Burton, who also serves as executive producer. 

The first season revolves around Wednesday Addams, who attempts to solve a murder mystery at her new school.

Burton was previously approached to direct the 1991 film The Addams Family and was involved with a cancelled stop-motion animated The Addams Family film. 

In October 2020, he was reported to be helming a television series, which was later given a series order by Netflix. 

Ortega was cast in part to represent the character's Latina heritage. Ricci, who had played the titular character in the 1991 film and its 1993 sequel Addams Family Values, was asked by Burton to join the series in a supporting role. 

Filming took place in Romania between September 2021 and March 2022. 

Sophia brought this to my attention and now I see it featured on Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. Who would have thought?

That Tim Burton is a genius. I just watched Edward Scissorhands two nights ago, a movie now playing on Hulu. 

Link here.

"Paint It Black" is a song by the English rock band the Rolling Stones.

A product of the songwriting partnership of Mick Jagger and Keith Richards, it is a raga rock song with Indian, Middle Eastern and Eastern European influences and lyrics about grief and loss. London Records released the song as a single on 7 May 1966 in the United States, and Decca Records released it on 13 May in the United Kingdom.

Two months later, London Records included it as the opening track on the American version of the band's 1966 studio album Aftermath, though it is not on the original UK release.

Originating from a series of improvisational melodies played by Brian Jones on the sitar, the song features all five members of the band contributing to the final arrangement although only Jagger and Richards were credited as songwriters.

In contrast to previous Rolling Stones singles with straightforward rock arrangements, "Paint It Black" has unconventional instrumentation, including a prominent sitar, the Hammond organ and castanets. This instrumental experimentation matches other songs on Aftermath. The song was influential to the burgeoning psychedelic genre as the first chart-topping single to feature the sitar, and widened the instrument's audience. Reviews of the song at the time were mixed, and some music critics believed its use of the sitar was an attempt to copy the Beatles, while others criticised its experimental style and doubted its commercial potential.

Now 59 years later, it's featured in a Tim Burton production. Wow. Link here.

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NFL Today 

On Hulu and local networks.

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Tonight's Movie

Midnight in Paris.