Locator: 48601RENEWABLES.
Tag: wind energy.
Remember when BP's marketing tag was "BP = Beyond Petroleum." And their pivot to renewable energy.
Monday, September 16, 2024
BP -- On Shore Wind -- Sayonara -- September 16, 2024
Magnificant 7 Partnerships -- AWS, NVDA, And CRWD -- September 16, 2024
Locator: 48600TECH.
Long thread of interest.
Cramer's First Hour -- Empire State Manufacturing Survey -- Huge Surprise -- AAPL Plunges -- Monday, September 16, 2024
Locator: 48599CRAMER.
Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC. Link here.
.Goldman Sachs, link here:
Cramer: livid with anger about analysts reporting poor Apple iPhone 16 sales over the weekend -- iPhone 16 Pro and Max Pro.
Cramer: still bullish on DIS. Owns it for his charitable trust.
Tech: "everything" looks negative pre-market; exception -- Oracle up a bit. Cramer, et al, spent a lot of time on Oracle. Broadcom, Oracle, and Nvidia up double-digits last week.
Personal investing: Sophia looking at taking advantage of buying tech on the dip.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey, link here. Forecast: -0.5. Actual: up 11.5 points.
WTI: reclaims $70.
AAPL: down over $8 at the open. Down 3.6%.
Boeing: incredibly, 45 minutes into Cramer's first hour and has not mentioned Boeing, unless I missed it. But does discuss Cleveland-Cliffs and US Steel.
Musical interlude: Miami Vice.
Later: again, on CNBC today, mid-day, the talk was back to "hard landing" vs "soft landing." It feels like we've been having this discussion for years. It makes one wonder how long we're going to have this discussion. As far as I can tell, there's been no "advertised" timeline.
**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly
Reminder
- I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
- Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
- Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
Update: TSMC -- Arizona -- September 16, 2024
Locator: 48598TSM.
From the linked article:
TSMC first announced plans to build a new semiconductor fab in Arizona in 2020, and ever since then, it's reportedly been beset by multiple delays, labor shortages, and culture clashes. Now, things appear to be looking up for TSMC, as Bloomberg reports the company performed a successful yield test in April, and the results matched those from a TSMC fab in Taiwan.
TSMC produces its most advanced products in Taiwan. The company seeks to replicate those facilities in Arizona, but with less-advanced processes at first while its operations get up to speed. The test was reportedly performed on a 4nm process—several years behind the 3nm process it currently uses in Taiwan but still the node of choice for both Nvidia and AMD's latest hardware. Unfortunately, the report doesn't say what the yield numbers were. In an email to Bloomberg, TSMC stated that the company's project in Arizona is "proceeding as planned with good progression,” but it didn't mention what yields it has achieved. The Tainan facility that the Arizona fab is being compared to is home to Fab 18, which is used for both 5nm and 3nm wafer production, and has been producing 5nm chips since 2020.
TSMC was originally supposed to enter high-volume production at its Arizona facility this year, but that has been pushed back to 2025 due to labor shortages. However, the company has three different fabs planned for the desert location, and the yield test was performed on its first location, which has been four years in the making. According to the company, its second fab might be delayed until 2027, and TechSpot reports the third fab will come online at the end of the decade.
One central sticking point that could impact TSMC's plans in Arizona is when it will receive the promised funds from Uncle Sam. In April, TSMC was awarded $11 billion from the CHIPS Act, so it's probably looking at its checking account daily to see when the direct deposit will hit.
Road To Texas -- Housing -- September 16, 2024
Locator: 48597TEXAS.
From local community report:
Texas needs about 306,000 more homes to meet demand, research shows.
The details: Texas’ population growth has outpaced homebuilding since 2020, according to the state comptroller’s office, resulting in a widespread housing shortage. Home prices shot up during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, as remote work policies allowed more people to move to Texas.
Zooming in: A Texan who wants to sell their current home and purchase a new one should make about $113,000 to qualify for a mortgage loan, compared to about $70,000 at the beginning of the pandemic, said Clare Knapp, a housing economist for the Austin Board of Realtors. A first-time buyer should have an income of about $78,000 to qualify for a loan, up from $45,000 in early 2020.
Manic Monday -- AAPL and Boeing In Focus -- September 16, 2024
Locator: 48596B.
40221, conf, CLR, Thorp Federal 1-28HSL,
Boeing: bankruptcy is now on the table.
Apple: pre-market, AAPP down $5 / share.
- Gene Munster:
- all AI features will take six months to roll out
- Munster's projections (sales): more optimistic than consensus
Tech: pre-market. All tech is trading down today.
TSM: from Peter Zeihan this morning --
The Trump administration demanded that TSMC build the best facility they possibly could in the United States, and it is…not happening. Taiwan's efforts in the US are little more than a kabuki effort to appease the US and maintain its favor. In contrast, new fabs in Japan are moving along swimmingly, as the Japanese didn't insist upon the cutting-edge technology that the US wanted.
Emmy:
********************************
Back to the Bakken
WTI: $69.03.
Tuesday, September 17, 2024: 35 for the month; 163 for the quarter, 487 for the year
38262, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-0817H-4, Blue Buttes,
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2024 | 27823 | 60727 |
| 6-2024 | 35268 | 66827 |
| 5-2024 | 21925 | 38988 |
| 4-2024 | 28966 | 48690 |
| 3-2024 | 17246 | 22471 |
Monday, September 16, 2024: 34 for the month; 162 for the quarter, 486 for the year
None.
Sunday, September 15, 2024: 34 for the month; 162 for the quarter, 486 for the year
40356, conf, CLR, Thorp Federal 2-28H,
40221, conf, CLR, Thorp Federal 1-28HSL,
RBN Energy: unprecedented TETCO East Louisian premiums not likely to stick around.
Natural gas futures contracts can be highly liquid and trade at high volumes, with prices constantly moving as new information arrives. But some contracts are far less liquid, so when a swing occurs it tends to last — and attract attention.
That’s been the case this year for some prices on Texas Eastern Pipeline (TETCO) in Louisiana. Starting in the spring, TETCO’s East and West Louisiana zones have seen unusually elevated prices for the 2026-29 time frame, a result of the East zone’s transition into a demand hub. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss what is driving prices to historic premiums — and why they aren’t likely to become the new normal.
Sunday, September 15, 2024
A Buying Opportunity This Week? September 15, 2024
Locator: 48595AAPL.
***********************************
A Musical Interlude
**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly
Reminder
- I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
- Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
- Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
A Huge Shoutout To The Readers -- September 15, 2024
Locator: 48594ARCHIVES.
Tag: Caitlin Clark.
I haven't done this in a long time.
Page views each 24-hour period.
When I first started the blog, the most page views in a 24-hour period I recall, about 6,500 page views -- again in a 24-hour period.
Then when the Bakken struggled, page views dropped to a low of about 2,500.
I was curious.
So, this weekend I checked the page count:
This is pretty cool, averaging about 5,670 page views / each 24-hour period.
I hope I did the math correctly.
But, wow, if accurate, I'm quite surprised. I figured 2,500 would be the number.
***********************************
WBNA Records
Top Ten Tech Companies With Monopolies -- September 15, 2024
Locator: 48592TECH.
The top ten with "monopolies":
- ASML
- TSM
- KLAC
- AMAT
- LRCX
- MU
- AVGO
- WDC
- MRVL
- TXN
They're reading the blog.
I just mentioned this phenomenon this past week! Whoo-hoo.
Link here for the top ten tech companies with monopolies. Very much like the railroads at the turn of the century.
So much could be said. Maybe more later.
**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly
Reminder
- I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
- Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
- Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
Worth Re-Posting -- Nvidia -- September 15, 2024
Locator: 48591NVDA.
AAPL - NVDA - TSM: connecting the dots.
PLTR: Folks may want to spend a bit of time on this thread. Link here. Palantir.
AAPL: a picture is worth a thousand words. An untethered iPad. Steve Jobs is smiling.
Free cash flow, link here.
**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly
Reminder
- I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
- Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
- Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
Clearing Off The Desk -- This Story Has Been In The Queue For Awhile -- Ford -- WSJ -- September 15, 2024
Locator: 48593EVS.
Biden, Harris, Trump will put a stop to Chinese EV imports.
From the linked article, the lede:
Jim Farley had just returned from China. What the Ford Motor chief executive found during the May visit made him anxious: The local automakers were pulling away in the electric-vehicle race.In an early-morning call with fellow board member John Thornton, an exasperated Farley unloaded.The Chinese carmakers are moving at light speed, he told Thornton, a former Goldman Sachs executive who spent years as a senior banker in China. They are using artificial intelligence and other tech in cars that is unlike anything available in the U.S. These Chinese EV makers are using a low-cost supply base to undercut the competition on price, offering slick digital features and aggressively expanding to overseas markets.“John, this is an existential threat,” Farley said.For years, Tesla was the main source of consternation for auto CEOs trying to tackle a transition to electric vehicles. Now, it is the rapid rise of nimble automakers in China that have rattled executives from Detroit to Germany and Japan. Even Tesla’s Elon Musk recently called the Chinese the “most competitive” carmakers in the world.
I think the entire EV story is fascinating.
I found the closing paragraphs intriguing.
Farley and Field huddled around a laptop, looking at a spreadsheet of line items for the future midsize electric pickup. The goal: figure out how to extract $800 in cost.The team had overachieved on the driving range by 16 miles, Field explained, which meant they could wring out about $500 by shrinking the battery. Finding the rest of the savings would be a slog. Would it really need a heated steering wheel? Maybe the front trunk was expendable, one of the execs suggested.Before long, Farley worried aloud that they might be cutting too many corners, and that “the product could end up being really sh—y.” He suggested to Field an informal process: How about they slap sticky notes all over the prototype to hash out what should go?
In an age of ChaptGPT and OpenAI, the best and the brightest are using yellow stickies.
But most intriguing -- "the team had overachieved on the driving range by 16 miles" which means they could "wring out about $500 by shrinking the battery."
$70,000 vehicles and they're talking a cost savings of $500 by shrinking the battery. Say what?
But worse, seeming to get excited by increasing the battery range by 16 miles. Really?
The one thing that EV auto manufacturers will never be able to undo: the fact that EVs are tethered vehicles.
*****************************
Top Ten Reasons To Avoid The EV
Top ten:
- a solution to a problem that doesn't exist
- tethered vehicle
- tethered vehicle
- tethered vehicle
- tethered vehicle
- tethered vehicle
- too expensive
- infrastructure lacking (possibly getting worse, not improving)
- 40% of Americans live in apartments
- don't understand the technology
"Range anxiety" doesn't make the top ten list.
How to market EVs:
- extremely fun to drive
- comprehensive entertainment package
- CarPlay
- Sirius
- Apple GUI
- sporty; really sporty
- iPhone 16 part of the overall package at no extra cost
- free maintenance for ten years
- ten-year all-inclusive warranty
- insurance coverage provided by dealer
- fast charging installation to be provided by dealer
- never mention:
- cost
- range
- electricity
- batteries
Make the EV a must-have sports car. Money is not an issue. Exhibit A.
It needs to be the entire package: EV auto manufacturers are not just selling a tethered vehicle; they’re also selling “lifestyle,” for lack of a better word.The folks buying $100,000 Cybertrucks don't care about pesky details like range, infrastructure -- they are into a “lifestyle”: they see and want to be seen. They want a swag bag with their EV.
This is the EV swag bag:
Meanwhile, The Great American Chip Company Getting Billions In US CHIPS Money Is Building Overseas -- September 15, 2024
Locator: 48592INTC.
This company makes money the old-fashioned way: investing US taxpayer dollars overseas.
I guess it's all about regulatory / bureaucratic / environmental hurdles.
Makes no difference to the investor where the plants are built, as long as the plants are built.
*****************************
Flashback
One of the greatest two-women shows ever.
I saw it three times during its run in Alabama -- Montgomery, AL -- Shakespeare Theater -- the third time the show was sold out by the time I decided to go again -- it sold out every night -- but I drove to the theater anyway and after the doors were about to close, everyone in their seats, I talked to the theater manager and said I would pay full price even if I could just stand in the aisle at the back of the theater. And, yes, I watched the entire show, again, standing.
This is from a 2015 article, but we must have seen it in 1996 (?) or thereabouts.
Wow wow, wow -- it's still running. This December, southeast of Montgomery!
An 11-hour drive. Each direction.
This Is Neither A Passing Fad Nor A Bubble -- Hyperscalers -- NVIDIA -- September 16, 2024
Locator: 48591NVDA.
AAPL - NVDA - TSM: connecting the dots.
Carbon no longer matters? Link here.
NVDA is not CSCO, link here.
Swings, link here:
Buy the dips.
**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly
Reminder
- I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
- Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
- Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
Initial Production For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- September 15, 2024
Locator: 48590WELLS.
The wells:- 40562, conf, Slawson, Snoop Alley 6-16-9TFH, Blue Buttes, npd.
- 38259, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-0817H-7, Blue Buttes,
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2024 | 22572 | 38611 |
| 6-2024 | 21447 | 37437 |
| 5-2024 | 21245 | 35298 |
| 4-2024 | 28145 | 53503 |
| 3-2024 | 5007 | 7658 |
- 40554, conf, Slawson, Fisherman 4-21-28H, Big Bend, npd,
40561, conf, Slawson, Payara 5 SLTFH, Big Bend, npd, - 40351, conf, KODA Resources, Stout1435-6BH, Fertile Valley,
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 8-2024 | 20127 | 1428 |
| 7-2024 | 20293 | 2268 |
| 6-2024 | 13515 | 0 |
| 5-2024 | 19708 | 0 |
| 4-2024 | 3427 | 0 |
- 40350, conf, KODA Resources, Stout 14-2-5BH, Fertile Valley,
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 8-2024 | 11412 | 533 |
| 7-2024 | 15496 | 1239 |
| 5-2024 | 5036 | 0 |
| 4-2024 | 8544 | 0 |
- 40240, conf, Hess, BL-Kerbaugh-156-96-3427H-7, Beaver Lodge,
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2024 | 17530 | 49541 |
| 6-2024 | 22334 | 59187 |
| 5-2024 | 24094 | 45394 |
| 4-2024 | 44350 | 83258 |
| 3-2024 | 14719 | 25476 |
- 40560, conf, Slawson, Prowler 1 SLH, Big Bend, npd,
- 39934, conf, Hess, RS-Feldman-156-92-1423H-2, Ross,
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2024 | 17782 | 13743 |
| 6-2024 | 18047 | 12961 |
| 5-2024 | 12891 | 8742 |
| 4-2024 | 21186 | 15177 |
| 3-2024 | 14869 | 5488 |
- 23385, conf, Grayson Mill, Beaux 18-19 6H, Banks,
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2024 | 14689 | 56907 |
| 6-2024 | 19038 | 52454 |
| 5-2024 | 27247 | 47339 |
| 4-2024 | 19117 | 20367 |
- 40502, conf, CLR, Kennedy 9-31HSL, Dimmick Lake,
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2024 | 1047 | 1680 |
- 39933, conf, Hess, RS-Juma-156-92-1131H-3, Alger,
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2024 | 13903 | 7508 |
| 6-2024 | 14496 | 7391 |
| 5-2024 | 13513 | 6874 |
| 4-2024 | 23375 | 13382 |
| 3-2024 | 15131 | 9729 |
- 23388, conf, Grayson Mill, Beaux 18-19 3TFH, Banks,
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2024 | 7349 | 37278 |
| 6-2024 | 10721 | 42404 |
| 5-2024 | 17185 | 47567 |
| 4-2024 | 2157 | 5288 |
- 23387, conf, Grayson Mill, Beaux 18-19 4H, Banks,
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2024 | 13851 | 62767 |
| 6-2024 | 16656 | 52532 |
| 5-2024 | 23969 | 51926 |
| 4-2024 | 5719 | 5971 |
- 23386, conf, Grayson Mill 18-19 6H, Banks,
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2024 | 3112 | 21589 |
| 6-2024 | 4964 | 30299 |
| 5-2024 | 9133 | 35170 |
| 4-2024 | 3744 | 6904 |
- 40241, conf, Hess, BL-Kerbaugh-156-96-3427H-6, Beaver Lodge,
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2024 | 17775 | 66789 |
| 6-2024 | 23176 | 56432 |
| 5-2024 | 26231 | 44141 |
| 4-2024 | 43262 | 83196 |
| 3-2024 | 21747 | 40018 |
- 38649, conf, CLR, Ravin 13-1HSL, Dimmick Lake,
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2024 | 2318 | 2324 |
- 38262, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-0817H-4, Blue Buttes,
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2024 | 27823 | 60727 |
| 6-2024 | 35268 | 66827 |
| 5-2024 | 21925 | 38988 |
| 4-2024 | 28966 | 48690 |
| 3-2024 | 17246 | 22471 |
- 40356, conf, CLR, Thorp Federal 2-28H, Little Knife,
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2024 | 11613 | 11967 |
- 40221, conf, CLR, Thorp Federal 1-28HSL, Haystack Butte,
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2024 | 34664 | 58103 |
Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- September 15, 2024
Locator: 48589WELLS.
Wednesday, September 25, 2024: 52 for the month; 180 for the quarter, 504 for the year
40562, conf, Slawson, Snoop Alley 6-16-9TFH,
38259, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-0817H-7,
Tuesday, September 24, 2024: 50 for the month; 178 for the quarter, 502 for the year
40554, conf, Slawson, Fisherman 4-21-28H,
Monday, September 23, 2024: 49 for the month; 177 for the quarter, 501 for the year
40561, conf, Slawson, Payara 5 SLTFH,
Sunday, September 22, 2024: 48 for the month; 176 for the quarter, 500 for the year
40351, conf, KODA Resources, Stout1435-6BH,
40350, conf, KODA Resources, Stout 14-2-5BH,
40240, conf, Hess, BL-Kerbaugh-156-96-3427H-7,
Saturday, September 21, 2024: 45 for the month; 173 for the quarter, 497 for the year
40560, conf, Slawson, Prowler 1 SLH,
39934, conf, Hess, RS-Feldman-156-92-1423H-2,
23385, conf, Grayson Mill, Beaux 18-19 6H,
Friday, September 20, 2024: 42 for the month; 170 for the quarter, 494 for the year
40502, conf, CLR, Kennedy 9-31HSL,
39933, conf, Hess, RS-Juma-156-92-1131H-3,
23388, conf, Grayson Mill, Beaux 18-19 3TFH,
23387, conf, Grayson Mill, Beaux 18-19 4H,
23386, conf, Grayson Mill 18-19 6H,
None.
Wednesday, September 18, 2024: 37 for the month; 165 for the quarter, 489 for the year
40241, conf, Hess, BL-Kerbaugh-156-96-3427H-6,
38649, conf, CLR, Ravin 13-1HSL,
Tuesday, September 17, 2024: 35 for the month; 163 for the quarter, 487 for the year
38262, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-0817H-4,
Monday, September 16, 2024: 34 for the month; 162 for the quarter, 486 for the year
None.
Sunday, September 15, 2024: 34 for the month; 162 for the quarter, 486 for the year
40356, conf, CLR, Thorp Federal 2-28H,
40221, conf, CLR, Thorp Federal 1-28HSL,
Saturday, September 14, 2024
A Musical Interlude -- September 14, 2024
Locator: 48588MUSIC.
********************************
The Book Page
The Columbian Exchange:
See The Horse: A Galloping History of Humanity, Timothy C. Winegard, c. 2024, p. 6.
Another horse book for the bookshelf.
"Running roughshod": a 17th century term. Described a horse that wore shoes with projecting nailheads. This gave the horse better traction while also creating a more lethal trampling weapon. Over time the term evolved to mean "attaining one's goals or desires by completely ignoring the opinions, rights, or feelings of others."
Among a gazillion other things I could mention from the book, perhaps the most important is introducing me to Brian Fagan.
Also, from page 12: "... in 1866 the millionaire financier, banker, and philanthropist George Peabody donated $150,000 ($3 million in today's money) for the construction of the Peabody Museum of Natural History at Yale University." And then a footnote:
"Having no legitimate heir to his vast business enterprise, Peabody partnered with Junius Spencer Morgan in 1854. Their joint venture would eventually become J.P. Morgan & Co., the predecessor to three of the largest banking institutions in the world: JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Deutsche Bank. Peabody is also considered the first modern philanthropist."
Friday, September 13, 2024
Week 37: September 9, 2024 -- September 15, 2024
Locator: 48587TOPSTORIES.
Top story:
- woman of color defeats Trump in debate
- national polls: neck and neck
- where "it" will be decided: Pennsylvania
Top international non-energy story:
- Mideast: same ol', same ol'.
- Ukraine: same ol', same ol'.
Top international energy story:
- WTI: struggles; settles below $70.
Top national non-energy story:
- CNBC can't quit talking about a rate cut, risk of inflation; gets tedious.
- Fed rate cut: 25 basis points (75% chance); 50 basis points (25%)
Top national energy story:
- WTI dropped to as low as $66
Focus on fracking: current link here. Generally updated late Sunday night.
Top North Dakota non-energy story:
Top North Dakota energy story:
Geoff Simon's quick connects: link here.
The market in a nutshell: At the close --
Only One New Permit Today -- September 13, 2024
Locator: 48586B.
WTI: $68.65.
Active rigs: 39.
One new permit, today:
- 41136, loc, Hunt Oil, Alexandria 161-100-17-5H-3, SESW 17-161-100, sections 5 / 8 / 17 - 161-100; Alexandria, Divide County
Powder River Basin Play In Converse County, Wyoming, Blocked By Federal Judge -- September 13, 2024
Locator: 48585PRB.
Converse County, Wyoming -- The Powder River Basin play is tracked here.
At that site, note:
September 16, 2018: The U.S. Bureau of Land Management has given final approval of the environmental impact statement on a 3,500-gas well project proposed by Jonah Energy in Wyoming’s Powder River Basin.
Now, today, it is being reported that a 5,000 well project within a 1.5-million-acre play in Converse County, Wyoming, previously approved by BLM, has been blocked by a federal judge on environmental concerns.
The agency [the BLM] had approved developing up to 5,000 new oil and natural gas wells within a 1.5 million-acre area in Converse County, Wyoming, over a decade.
The project is backed by energy companies including Devon Energy and Continental Resources.
Two environmental groups, the Powder River Basin Council and Western Watersheds Project, sued in 2022, calling the project a "capstone" of efforts by the Trump administration to relieve the fossil fuel industry from environmental safeguards.
How Not To Invest -- September 13, 2024
Locator: 48583INVESTING.
On CNBC right now, a buy-side analyst is still bullish on Boeing. He says his company put Boeing on its "buy list" one year ago, and continues to recommend Boeing. In the past year, apparently, Boeing stock has lost 40% of its value. And now the machinists overwhelmingly voted against the new contract and are out on strike.
If this guy is still invested in Boeing .... oh, wow, what can I say?
It seems there must be a better way to invest than ... well, whatever he's doing.
I was going to write more but I don't even know where to begin.
I guess I would think along these lines if I wanted to still remain bullish on Boeing. I would play "would I rather" while waiting:
- pencil in the amount of cash I would want to invest in Boeing as my starting position;
- then, pick an equity (alt A) other than Boeing, and ask would I rather, at this point in time, with a six-month time frame would I like to put that cash into Boeing or in "alt A."
- then, whether it's Boeing or "alt A" play the game again, this time against "alt B.
- then, repeat.
- repeat six times.
- following the sixth iteration, put that penciled-in cash to the equity that is "still standing."
- Then, follow the Boeing story closely and play the game again every six months.
The biggest problem I have with starting a position in Boeing now or continuing to hold Boeing now is this: it's not as if one's only choice in the equity market is Boeing. There must be a ton of companies that are "in trouble" but have incredible potential. It seems there must be some alternatives to Boeing that meed all the criteria for holding Boeing now, but are better alternatives.
Wow, I can think of a hundred alternatives to Boeing, and all of them pay a dividend while waiting.
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- I have no formal training or education in anything financial.
- I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
- Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
- Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
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